What sanctions can Ecuador expect after the attack on the Mexican embassy?

Justice in Ecuador I deliberated this Friday the request of the former vice president of Ecuador Jorge Glas that his arrest is annulled carried out inside the Mexican Embassy in Quito after receiving asylum and order the Ecuadorian state to hand it back to Mexico. If the court grants the request will not be able to erase the indignation that Ecuadorian authorities committed when they forcibly broke into the Mexican embassy to take Glas.

This was made clear by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, when he indicated on Friday that he would allow Jorge Glas (2013-2017) to obtain asylum in Mexico it would not resolve the diplomatic conflict with Ecuador.

Mexico has already appealed to the Hague Court against Ecuador to be removed from the United Nations for invading Mexican soil by raiding the Mexican embassy in Quito a week ago.

The case before the International Court of Justice is not the only diplomatic and legal front facing Ecuador almost unanimous international condemnation and a cascade of sanctions.

A long process

After the police assault on the Mexican embassy, ​​pressure on Ecuador increased in all international forums. Requesting this Thursday the suspension of the South American country from the UN to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Mexico appears optimistic and confident in having international law in its favor, something all analysts seem to agree on.

Ecuadorian political scientist Valeria Argüello explains to RFI that, although it is possible that the complaint will be accepted, given that Mexico is in an electoral process, some candidates may withdraw it.

In any case, he specifies, “that’s how it is a process that will take a long time at the ICJ. There are other forums that will be found at this time, Mercosur, CELAC, but since we already have a non-sanction precedent, where Ecuador’s participation in the Organization of American States (OAS) was not suspended, why could this have happened . The resolution also demonstrates this to some extent how states condemn Ecuadorbut at the same time they recall other articles of the Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations”.

The OAS approved a resolution this Wednesday condemn the violent attack from the Ecuadorian police to the Mexican embassy in Quito. With 29 votes in favor, one abstention and Ecuador voting against, the Pan-American organization accused Daniel Noboa’s government of violating the Vienna Convention and asylum policy.

What punishments could Ecuador receive?

So is it a given in Ecuador that there will be sanctions from The Hague?

“Ecuador should be condemned, because it is not just a violation of the headquarters, but a violation of the dignity of the official, who he also has immunity. This is what could take us not only to the International Court of Justice, but will take us first to the IACHR, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. And this will represent for the Ecuadorian state a financial penalty and we don’t know how much it could be”, replies the political scientist.

The truth is There are few precedents in the region like this case. Except on rare occasions, not even in the harsh Latin American military dictatorships of the 1960s and 1970s was it permitted to attack embassies. Here because It is difficult to predict what sanctions Ecuador might face.

“There are some sanctions that can be adopted unilaterally by Mexico. The severing of diplomatic relations, which is already a reality, could mean sanctions for Ecuadorian immigrants. It has to do with the visa system, because Ecuadorians need a visa, even if it is about going as tourists to Mexico. There could be repercussions for Ecuadorian students studying in Mexicothere could be trade sanctions from Mexico,” underlines Alexis Medina, historian and professor of Latin American affairs at the University of Besançon.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador trusts that the International Court of Justice will act quickly. Admitting this complaint to treatment can take four to eight months.