Tension between Iran and Israel: news of one retaliation announced and another cancelled

Gabriel García Márquez, in his novel Chronicle of a Death Foretold, tells the case of 2 brothers from the Vicario family who decide to avenge the insult to their family’s honor by a neighbor who caused their sister to lose her virginity. The retaliation announced yesterday by Iran about the Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus which caused the death of one of its generals, presents points of similarity and marked differences with the central story of the novel by the famous Colombian writer.

The Vicario brothers announced to the majority of the town in which they lived their intention to kill their neighbor, even though they feared that the victim would not find out until their death. Iran also took care to reveal its intention of retaliation in advance, but it went much further, with a significantly more benevolent result towards the intended victim of the retaliation. Unlike the Vicario brothers, Iran did not hide her intentions from the victim, nor the moment in which she would implement them.

Unlike the Israeli surprise attack that caused the death of the top Iranian officer, the not-so-secret services of the Persian country feared that the American secret services understand 48 hours in advance that Iran intends to retaliate against Israel. So much so that President Biden canceled his weekend to analyze with his advisors the imminent Iranian attack on Israel almost 12 hours before it began.

But they don’t end there Iranian efforts to facilitate Israel efforts to successfully address their retaliation. No surprises to make your defense difficult. Knowing that US satellite sensors have the ability to capture any launch in real time, the Iranians were careful to begin the attack with the takeoff of a swarm of hundreds of drones, unmanned aerial attack vehicles, of which estimate flight time to Israel. between 7 and 9 hours of flight, alert time for Israel.

This decision, instead of starting with the launch of cruise missiles (with a 2-hour flight) or ballistic missiles (12 minutes of flight), allowed the systems of Israel and the coalition of USA, England, France and Jordan organize well in advance with its fleet of aircraft and air defense systems.

Furthermore, the last 6 months of confrontation between Israel and the so-called representatives of Iran in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and other militias in Iraq – have allowed the improvement of Israeli air defense systems so that Today they practically seal their skies.

The result is already known and somewhat predicted. The intervention of the air forces of the coalition supporting Israel, together with its aircraft and air defense systems, managed to intercept and shoot down 99% of the drones and missiles launched against targets in Israel. In conjunction with this trend, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces who “Iran ends retaliatory operation against Israel”

But the Israeli retaliation for the Iranian retaliation also seems to escape the threatening scripts that so characterize Israel in its dealings with its enemies. Fittingly, Israeli Defense Minister Galant said: “A direct Iranian attack will require an adequate Israeli response against Iran.”

However, it seems that on this occasion we are faced with an event that It is associated with sudden containment that Israel expressed, responding to a clear request from President Bush (father), in response to the launch of Scud missiles by the Iraqi army during the first Gulf War in 1991.

According to well-known journalist Barak Ravid, after successfully foiling the Iranian attack, President Biden had a telephone conversation in which he clearly expressed to Benjamin Netanyahu: “Today you won. Let’s be satisfied with this victory. “The United States will not support or participate in an Israeli attack on Iran.”. The effect was immediate. The retaliation against the Iranian retaliation has been postponed and, for the moment, is subject to the decision of the triumvirate Netanyahu, Gantz and Galant.

Without a doubt, both bitter enemies love to show their teeth, but they prefer to continue barking rather than launch an actual attack.

Daniel Kupervaser is an economist and policy analyst.