Elections are not threatened because President Jair Bolsonaro does not have the objective conditions to stage a coup. These will be domestic support from the economic and political elite, unanimity in the Armed Forces, a positive international scenario, support from a significant part of the press, and a minimally functional government.
None of these conditions exist in the Brazilian conjuncture. The political and economic elites are grappling with a government that has spawned crises and created dire institutional and economic instability for the business environment.
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The Armed Forces is frayed by a relationship with a president who was considered a bad soldier by dictator and general Ernesto Geisel. Despite the frequent talk of the coup by the reserve generals, there is no active support for the coup.
On the international stage, Bolsonaro is seen and treated as a pariah. Brazil has lost its geopolitical importance and is isolated on the global stage. The international community does not appreciate the Brazilian president, except for one autocrat here, and sees him as a threat to the planet because of his ecocidal environmental policy.
Despite having normalized a fascist in 2018, most of the Brazilian press understands the risks of a second term from a dictator candidate who is destroying public policy and weakening our institutions. We are in the worst moment since re-democratization in 1985. The press knows it, although the false symmetry between Bolsonaro and former President Lula is still frequent and polarizing the presidential race.
Finally, Bolsonaro has no government work or public policy that can be successfully sold. The disastrous management of the pandemic is the hallmark of the current Executive Branch. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is a disreputable figure in Congress and the financial market. The economy as a whole is in disarray, inflation and unemployment are rising.
Does Bolsonaro want to mess up the election? Yes.
Dreaming of taking a hit? Yes.
However, there are no objective conditions for Brazil’s good that would allow the genocidal to want to maintain himself in power. Bolsonaro will not pass.
source: Noticias
