Analysis: War could divide Ukraine and leave the country with the poorest region

They say that the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than two months, should create new borders on the territory of the occupied country. UOL.

According to them, the Russians could definitively seize the more industrialized areas with access to the Sea of ​​Azov in the southern, eastern and southeastern regions. In parallel, they are negotiating Ukraine’s withdrawal from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization).

Geographer and political scientist Tito Barcellos Pereira envisions a possible partition that will create a viable “Western Ukraine”. However, it was economically weakened by the loss of territory of more industrialized regions, subordinate to the Russians, far from European countries.

The southern, eastern and southeastern counties in the eastern region, including the breakaway territories, would form the “New Russia”. Amid the conflict, the Kremlin has already said that for ceasefire negotiations to progress, Ukraine must recognize the Crimean peninsula as part of Russia and the independence of the self-declared republics of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“There is much more population density in the east and south, because there are industrialized areas in the port areas. If the Russians take all of this land, Ukraine will be reduced to Kyiv and Lviv,” the political scientist comments.

According to him, other cities that will still remain under Ukrainian rule are small and mainly agricultural. “This is a sparsely populated area. None of these cities have more than 300,000 inhabitants. Ukraine will be left to Kiev and a poor agricultural west,” he explains.

It would be as if Brazil had been invaded and lost the southeast, south, and northeast, where the coast and largest cities such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte were located. In this case, only the agricultural and dependent areas of Brazil would remain. So I ask: Who can prosper economically under these conditions?
Tito Barcellos Pereira, political scientist and geographer

Tito also outlines two more scenarios for the outcome of the conflict. The most pessimistic for the Ukrainians would be regime change, forcing the country to become an economic partner and military ally of the Russians. In the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine would join NATO and lose “only” Donetsk, Lugansk and the Crimean peninsula, which were already under Russian rule.

“But considering that the Russians occupied a significant part of Ukrainian territory, it seems to me that the war will last longer, probably more than a year,” he says.

Strategic area in Mariupol

The political scientist also says he saw what he perceived as a more focused action by Russian troops last month, after Russian general Alexander Dvornikov, known as the “Butcher of Syria,” was appointed as the new commander of combat operations. Invaded.

“There is coordination of all operations focused on the capture of the Donestk and Lugansk regions,” he analyzes.

According to him, intense bombing actions are intensifying, especially in Mariupol, which has access to the Sea of ​​Azov, making it strategic for the Russians and providing the link between Crimea and the separatist regions. “Although it is small, it is a port and industrialized city belonging to the Donetsk province,” he explains.

This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appealed to the United Nations to “rescue” the wounded who had taken shelter at a steelworks in the city amid the attacks – previously announcing the evacuation of civilians residing in the body industrial complex. The last stronghold of the resistance in the port city is under attack.

Donbass loss ‘would be disastrous’

Renato do Prado Kloss, Professor of International Relations and MA in Strategic Studies at the University of Reading in England, foresees a possible and “catastrophic” scenario for Ukraine if the Donbass region in the east of the country is lost. , and the port.

“The Donbass region, with its coal mines, metallurgical and steel industries, is the most industrialized region in the country. The loss of this region will have a tremendous impact on the Ukrainian economy,” he analyzes.

For Professor Sandro Teixeira Moita, who holds a doctorate in military sciences, Donbass is a very important point for Ukrainians.

“Donbass is an important region because it controls the outflow to the sea and has facilities that use the river water to cool it. Ukraine’s desperate struggle may be to not let this region fall to the Russians. That’s what European countries read. It can send a message of weakness. If they agree to discuss Donbass What is keeping the Russians from moving in other directions?” he asks.

But Professor Renato Kloss says he understands that instant territorial conquest by Russian troops will not necessarily be certain.

The Russians will not give up this offensive now. And as a form of bargaining, even to negotiate a separation between Ukraine and NATO, they will try to conquer as many cities as possible.”
Renato do Prado Kloss, Professor of International Relations

However, he acknowledges that the scenario could get worse if the Russians also conquer Kherson and Odessa where the attacks were seen. A video showing the explosion around the Kherson TV Tower on April 2. The port area of ​​Odessa was even disabled due to the Russian naval blockade in the conflict.

“Worst case scenario for Ukrainians. The only point to sell products would be the port of Odessa. Without this, Ukraine would have to use a port in Bulgaria, which would greatly increase its costs by paying for freight for exports,” he says.

Professor Sandro Teixeira Moita explains that Russian ultra-nationalists are planning to create a “New Russia” on Ukrainian territory, which will remove the occupied country’s access to the Black Sea. “The aim would be to force the Ukrainians to sign a peace treaty on Russian terms. Without these industrialized cities, Ukraine would have taken a huge economic hit.”