There is a lot of expectation about how Vladimir Putin’s government will behave on Monday, May 9. History, II. It marks an important event for the Russians as it celebrates the day of victory over Nazism in World War II.

Usually on this occasion, military parades are held in Red Square, Moscow and other cities of the country in order to strengthen the identity narratives of the Russian people and show strength.

This year, however, history is accompanied by additional tension as different pressures are applied against Putin in the context of the conflict with Ukraine. So far, the only consensus among experts is that the opportunity will certainly serve as a government propaganda tool.

Rumors from Moscow suggest that when he invaded Ukraine in February, Putin had in mind that he could declare victory over that country on May 9. No wonder, therefore, that the government is selling the occupation as an attempt to “maximize” Ukraine, which would create a logic with strong discursive and symbolic appeal.

Despite this, with the development of the conflict, which revealed difficulties in the advancement of the Russian armed forces and increased resilience of the Ukrainians, the plan had to be adapted. Thus, in the absence of major victories to celebrate, Putin will need to focus on other matters if he is to use the opportunity for any purpose that suits him.

The first possibility would be to focus on celebrating certain achievements, such as the capture of Mariupol and control of the Donbass region, demonstrating control of the situation and indicating that the objectives of the “special military operation” will be successfully achieved. Therefore, Russia would win the conflict to a certain extent and thus fulfill the mission it had set for itself from the very beginning. Everything else, in this sense, will be presented as an expression of hysterical but weightless ambitions by the West.

At the other extreme, a second scenario proposed by Western officials, which has gained ground in recent days, points to the possibility that the Kremlin will not only celebrate what it has, but also see it. sees it as an opportunity to improve performance. In this case, the speculation is that Russia may officially declare war, leaving Ukraine behind. situation The lack of progress in this situation, which has been embraced since the beginning of this crisis, will push Putin to an even harder offensive and a new chapter of the conflict.

This scenario would involve increasing the powers of the president, and this could include not only increased recruitment in warfare, but also the eventual implementation of martial law in Russia replacing civil laws with military laws. In extreme cases, this could give Putin the privilege of reorganizing many aspects of society, including closing borders, controlling food supplies, confiscating private property, among other things. To date, since the February 2022 invasion, Russian government spokespersons have repeatedly denied rumors involving the declaration of martial law.

All eyes are on Moscow on May 9. To see.