Russia’s serious miscalculation is the belief that Ukrainians will work together

KRIVÓI ROG, Ukraine — A request to commit treason reached Oleksandr Vilkul on the second day of the war, via a phone call from an elderly colleague.

Vilkul, a descendant of a powerful political family from southeastern Ukraine that has always been considered to have pro-Russian views, received the call as troops advanced a few kilometers from his hometown of Krivoy Rog.

“He told me:

‘Oleksandr Yurivich, you look at the map, you know the situation is predetermined,’ ”Vilkul said, recalling talking to a fellow minister from a former pro-Russian Ukrainian government.

“Sign a friendship, cooperation and defense agreement with Russia and they will have a good relationship with you,” the former colleague told him.

“You will someone important in the new Ukraine.

The offer failed miserably.

Once the war started, Vilkul said, the gray area of ​​politics in Ukraine was gone for him.

The missiles that hit his town became clear in his decision: contrary

“I answered with abusesaid Vilkul.

While the first months of the war in Ukraine turned out to be a military disaster for Russia’s military — a forced departure from kyiv undermined the reputation of its commanders and soldiers — Russia’s invasion also highlighted one more dazzling failure:

the misdiagnosis from Moscow about the politics of the country it attacked.

Incorrect calculations led to mistakes as fatal for Russian forces as the failed tactics of tank operators that ended up in the swamps.

The Kremlin entered the war expecting a quick win and painless, because he believes the president’s government Volodymyr Zelensky it will be broken and senior officials in the eastern region who mostly speak Russian will be welcome to switch sides.

That did not happen.

According to political analysts, the political myopia it is most noticeable in the east of the country.

Everywhere except in a handful of villages, Russia has failed to win over local politicians on its side.

The Ukrainian authorities have opened up 38 cases of infidelity, all against low -level officers on individual instances of infidelity.

“No one wants to be part of that thing behind the wall,” said Kostyantyn Usov, a former parliamentarian from Krivoy Rog, referring to Russia’s isolated and authoritarian system.

Usov said that such a system has almost no appeal in Ukraine, citing the lack of broad cooperation with Russia, even with Ukrainians who speak Russian and share the country’s cultural values.

“We are part of something hopeful,” he said of Ukraine.

“He is here, with us, in our group. And they can’t give us anything. “

Other prominent politicians who formerly had a pro-Russian outlook, including Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov and Odessa Mayor Hennady Trukhanov, remained loyal and became fierce protector of their cities.

Along with the leaders in the southeast, the Ukrainian people also protested.

Protests against the occupation continue on the streets of Kherson despite the mortal danger for participants.

A man was standing in front of a tank.

The miners and steelworkers of Krivoy Rog have shown no sign of changing their allegiance to Russia.

“Before the war, we had a relationship with Russia,” said Serhiy Zhyhalov, a 36-year-old steel engineer, referring to family, language and cultural ties.

But not anymore, he said.

“Nobody No doubt that Russia attacked us. “

The southeastern regions of Ukraine, a vast expanse of steppe and dilapidated industrial and mining towns, are the current focus of war fighting.

For years, the region elected pro-Russian politicians like Vilkul, a favorite villain of nationalists for promoting Soviet-style cultural events that angered many Ukrainians.

For example, Vilkul organized a singing party in Krivoy Rog to perform “Katyusha,” a Russian song associated with the Soviet victory in World War II.

But more notorious is the fact that Vilkul rose to politics during the government of the former pro-Russian president. Viktor Yanukovychwhere the cabinet he served as deputy prime minister until street protests overthrew Yanukovych in 2014.

Most of Yanukovych’s remaining cabinet fled with him to Russia.

But Vilkul remained in Ukraine as the de facto political boss of Krivoy Rog while his old father served as the city’s mayor.

It caught the attention of Moscow.

Vilkul said that in 2018 he was told by a mediator that “the time of turmoil is over” and he would have to follow Moscow’s orders if he wanted to stay in politics in the southeast of the country.

Vilkul claims to have rejected.

According to Vilkul, the Russians did not even bother to court him, but only asked.

He commented that Moscow has adopted the same approach with other politicians in eastern Ukraine.

“They’re not even trying to convince us,” he said.

“They just assume we will be a priori beside you.”

Before the war, Vilkul was probably the most popularly supported pro-Russian politician in Ukraine.

“I’m alone on this level,” he said.

Moscow also regarded him as a potential and promising convert on its side when it invaded Ukraine.

It was then that Vilkul received the call from Vitaly Zakharchenko, a Ukrainian exile in Russia who served as interior minister under Vilkul during the Yanukovych government.

Zakharchenko advised Vilkul to cooperate with the Russians.

“I told him to go to hell,” Vilkul said.

“I didn’t even think about it.”

Vilkul said he was not understood by the Russian leadership and the nationalist opposition at home.

He said his great -grandfather fought with the White Russians in the civil war.

He said the Vilkul family had “fought the Russians in this land for a hundred years.”

He asserted that the Kremlin had confused its respect for World War II veterans and support for the rights of Russian speakers with potential support for a reformed Russian empire, which he reiterated as a mistake.

He called the Russians “classic megalomaniacs”.

“They took language and values ​​in common, such as certain positions about World War II and the orthodoxy, as a sign that someone loves them, “he said.

The second offer, this time was presented to the public by another Ukrainian exile, Oleg Tsaryov, in a publication on Telegramcame to him a week later, when Russian troops were less than 10 kilometers from the city.

“My fellow party members and I have always taken a pro-Russian stance,” the post said, referring to Vilkul and his father.

Frightening, Tsaryov added that “cooperation with Russia’s military forces means protecting the city and people’s lives.”

Vilkul replied to an obscene post on Facebook.

In the early days of the attack, Vilkul ordered mining companies in the region to place heavy equipment on the tarmac of the city’s airport to thwart an airborne attack, as well as on highways to slow down operations. .

Then they proceeded to puncture the tires disable the machines.

The city’s steel and iron industry began to make barriers for tanks and plates for armored vests.

Zelensky, whose hometown was Krivoy Rog, appointed Vilkul as the city’s military governor on the third day of the war even though they had become political opponents in time of peace.

Vilkul wears combat fatigue and a camouflage scarf.

A parade of Ukrainian nationalists, including Right Sector paramilitary leader Dmytro Yarosh and a prominent activist and military official, Tetiana Chernovol, formerly bitter enemies of the Vilkul family, went to her office to shake hands

“If we fought the Russians, were we really pro-Russian in essence?” Vilkul asked.

Maria Varenikova contributed to this report.

c.2022 The New York Times Company