Limited recovery and Bolsonaro’s rejection could pick Lula in 1st round

Sergio Moro’s departure from the presidential race brought the former judge’s votes to President Jair Bolsonaro. The shameless use of the public machine also helped in some ways improve Bolsonaro’s intention to vote for president.

However, the prevailing press narrative of the systematic shrinking of the gap between former President Lula and Bolsonaro is spoken for sleep. This nonsense is fueled by the palace ministers who resort to some untrustworthy research. The reality is that Bolsonaro’s “recovery” faces obstacles in eliminating the former PT president’s electoral favoritism.

Lula remains likely to win in round one (2/10), but this scenario is less likely than a result in round two (30/10).

The first reason that fueled the chances of victory in the first phase was the increasing plebiscite character of the presidential race. The polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro grows stronger throughout the conflict. It’s not the other way around.

In a plebiscite election, rejection becomes the main factor in defining victory. Quaest research commissioned by Genial Investmentos and published this Wednesday shows that Bolsonaro has a 59% rejection rate. The rate of those who did not vote for Lula is 43 percent by 16 points.

Bolsonaro’s rejection is therefore the main factor contributing to Lula’s likelihood of victory in the first stage. There are no signs that this rejection could drop significantly. The current president should be the first person to lose re-election in Brazil.

The method was created in 1997 to be implemented in the 1998 elections and to support then-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso. The FHC was re-elected in 1998. Lula won a second term in 2006. Dilma Rousseff was reappointed in 2014. Bolsonaro is attempting a new era in the midst of a colossal economic crisis leading a disastrous royal government. It’s hard to see any chance of victory for the current resident of the Planalto Palace.

Election dynamics is another factor that favors Lula. In a plebiscite dispute, an appeal to a beneficial vote may benefit the PT in the final part of the first round of the election. The so-called third road fell through. The candidates in question do not outshine Lula or Bolsonaro. Therefore, voters may want to resolve the polarization law as early as October 2nd.

The separation of União Brasil from articulating with MDB, PSDB and Citizenship to launch a joint candidate has weakened the possibility of breaking the polarization. União Brasil did Bolsonaro a service by withdrawing party funding and TV time from a four-title nomination.

Initially, União Brasil killed off its preliminary candidacy by joining former judge Sergio Moro to the party and sending him into the federal parliamentary race for São Paulo. Later, União Brasil chose the nomination of Luciano Bivar, who was not the least competitive, leaving MDB, PSDB and Citizenship to be retained. Thus, União Brasil, the merger of Bolsonaro’s former party (PSL) with the DEM, contributed to reinforcing polarization and removing the minimal threat to the current presidential candidate.

In the current electoral dynamics, it would have been easier for a third candidate to pull Bolsonaro out of the runoff. After all, they all have one thing in common: they offer a government program that can be summed up as Bolsonarism without Bolsonaro. The exception is Ciro Gomes, who could not be placed in the basket of this third way beloved by most of the press.

Ciro (PDT) is the only candidate to represent a tangible alternative to Lula and Bolsonaro, but is struggling to get enough votes to reach the runoff. His ideas are more like Lula’s, but the PT’s running for president has hindered Turnover’s growth. Bolsonaro’s attempt to communicate with his constituents is also difficult on foot. Candidates like Moro, Simone Tebet and João Doria would find it easier to speak the language of Bolsonaro supporters.

Finally, blank and invalid votes excluding valid votes contribute to the first place in the polls. In this context, Lula’s current voting intention may be enough to get him more votes than his opponents combined.

The Quaest-Genial poll points to PT’s chances of winning in the first round, bringing good news for the former president.

According to the poll, Lula has 46% of the vote against 29% for Bolsonaro, a 17-point difference in favor of the PT. Turnover offers 7%. João Doria (PSDB), 3%. André Janones (Avante), 3%. Simone Tebet (MDB) and Felipe D’Ávila (Novo) each owned 1%. And Luciano Bivar (União Brasil) failed to score.

Bolsonaro and other candidates contribute up to 44%. Considering the two percent margin of error of the survey, there will be a technical draw. So choosing a PT at the first stage is difficult but not impossible.

If Lula stops making mistakes and vigorously pursues his strategy of attacking Bolsonaro on his weaknesses, economic disaster, and threat to democracy, the PT will have a real shot at avoiding a runoff race against a dictator candidate willing to do nothing. drop the bone.