MEXICO CITY – Confusion over invitations, a vague agenda and a growing threat of a boycott.

The meeting of Western Hemisphere leaders to be hosted by the United States next month, and apparently destined to showcase the resurgence of American leadership in the region, is threatening to become a disaster of public relations.

Less than three weeks before the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, there are fears that instead of highlighting the Biden administration’s vision for a part of the world that the former president donald trump more ignored, the event may show the reduced influence of the United States to advance its agenda in the region.

The number of heads of state in Latin America and the Caribbean is increasing, including the presidents of Mexico and Brazil -the two largest countries in the region-are considering non-attendance, which would be an embarrassing snub for the White House.

No formal invitation was sent out and the White House said no final decision had been made on who would be invited.

But, in some countries, there is already uncertainty about how the summit will address the formidable challenges at a time when the region is struggling to recover from the brutal economic collapse caused by pandemic, runaway inflation, environmental degradation and the dismantling of democratic institutions.

Last month, the State Department sent a 900-word summit memorandum to members of Congress but it had no specific objectives, and initial meetings with regional representatives were marked by confusion and a noticeable lack of migration on the agenda, according to a congressional staff member and a participant.

A spokesman for the National Security Council, which helps organize the event, said the summit was the Biden administration’s “highest priority event for our hemisphere” and added that formal invitations would be sent to as soon as possible.

Both the council and the State Department declined to comment on boycott threats.

Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs at the National Security Council, Juan González, told Americas Quarterly magazine in March that officials Cubans and the presidents of Venezuela and Nicaragua will not be included.

the president of Mexico, Andres Manuel Lopez Obradorsaid he would not attend the meeting unless the governments of those countries were invited.

López Obrador’s threats were repeated by leftist presidents Bolivia and Honduras.

A group of countries Caribbean he also threatened to boycott the meeting if the Venezuelan opposition leader was invited Juan Guaido representing his country, rather than president Nicholas Maduro.

The United States recognizes Guaidó as the head of state of Venezuela, despite Maduro’s effective control of the country.

“If it’s not included, if not everyone is invited, a Mexican government representation will go, but I’m not going,” López Obrador said at a press conference on Tuesday.

It is possible that the president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaroalso did not attend the summit, according to some Brazilian government officials.

The Brazilian president had good relations with Washington, and this summit promised the first time Bolsonaro and Biden would speak as presidents.

However, U.S. diplomats said the skepticism of some presidents was likely intended to appeal to leftist or nationalist voters and may not reflect their final decisions.

Some foreign policy analysts also said that planning uncertainty is common at these types of events in the region, which tend to focus on symbolic manifestation rather than achieving concrete solutions.

“Three weeks is an eternity when the U.S. government is set to run something like this summit,” said Dan Restrepo, a fellow at the Center for American Progress, a research institute, and former head of the Western Hemisphere. affairs of the National Council. National security.

But the boycott threats highlight the challenges the Biden administration faces in advancing its interests in the Americas, where the United States has long played a massive role.

On other issues, the U.S. government seeks to achieve a meaningful regional agreement on undocumented migration before the midterm elections, according to someone familiar with event planning.

“Latin American governments want to show Washington that it no longer sits at the head of the table and that it is a summit of equals, rather that Uncle Sam unilaterally decides who is on the guest list,” he said. by Brian Winter, editor of Americas Quarterly magazine, which focuses on U.S. policy in the hemisphere.

After being banned from the first six Summits of the Americas, Cuba was invited to the last two to Panama and Peru.

The Biden administration’s plan to exclude Cuba reflects that internal political pressureincluding efforts to avoid arousing Robert Menendez, a Democratic Cuban-American senator from New Jersey, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and an ardent critic of the Cuban government.

“President Biden clarified that he is focused on restoring America’s credibility and leadership in the global campaign to counter authoritarian forces,” Menendez said in an email.

“The president is keeping that promise.”

The possible absence of López Obrador at the summit will make it more difficult to reach a viable transfer agreement.

Mexico is the largest source of migrants heading to the United States, and the country’s government has partnered with Washington to curb the flow of other citizens traveling across the U.S. border after passing through Central America.

“If you have a Summit of the Americas without the presidents of Mexico and Brazil, it almost makes no sense,” said Jorge Castañeda, a former Mexican foreign minister who is now a professor of international relations at New York University.

“It’s going to be a failed summit.”

Bolsonaro’s absence could jeopardize any significant progress on two other important foreign policy goals of the Biden administration: climate change and defense of democracy.

And the prolonged silence between Biden and Bolsonaro is raising tensions in diplomatic relations.

During Biden’s presidency, Bolsonaro brought his country closer to Russia, extended policies that deforested the Amazon, and questioned the integrity of his own country’s elections.

U.S. officials have privately pushed for political change and have sometimes publicly criticized Bolsonaro.

The most pressing issue is Brazil’s presidential election in October.

The Biden administration is concerned that, after months of questioning Brazil’s voting systems, Bolsonaro could challenge the results if he is defeated.

At the summit, the US and other officials may try to force Bolsonaro to respect the democratic process and publicly express his own support for Brazil’s electoral systems.

But now it appears Bolsonaro will not travel to Los Angeles and the summit has been dropped from his agenda, according to someone familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not yet been announced.

Reuters reported this week no intention to attend.

Bolsonaro’s office, in an email, said it had received no information on the schedule for the summit.

The vice president, Hamilton Mouraosaid in a text message that the president has not yet decided whether to attend.

“If it’s an empty summit, it’s a message to the rest of the world that there is no coordination or common basis between the countries in the Americas,” said Ernesto Araújo, who was Bolsonaro’s foreign minister until last year. .

Bolsonaro could also be wary of any uncomfortable political situation if he attends the summit and Biden makes public statements about the security of elections in Brazil.

“The risk of having a bad headline is too great,” said Traumann, a former spokesman for Dilma Rousseffformer president of Brazil.

“And will Biden offer billions of dollars in investment in America? No. So what’s in it for him?

Natalie Kitroeff and Oscar Lopez contributed reporting from Mexico City, Michael D. Shear from Washington, and André Spigariol from Brasilia, Brazil.

Anatoly Kurmanaev is a correspondent based in Mexico City, where he covers Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Before joining Mexico correspondent in 2021, he spent eight years reporting from Caracas to Venezuela and the neighboring region. @Akurmanaev Jack Nicas is the head of the Brazil bureau, where he covers Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. He previously covered technology from San Francisco and, before joining The Times in 2018, he spent seven years at The Wall Street Journal. @jacknicas • Facebook Natalie Kitroeff and Oscar Lopez contributed reporting from Mexico City, Michael D. Shear from Washington, and André Spigariol from Brasilia, Brazil.

c. 2022 The New York Times Company