Since re-democratisation, Minas Gerais has served as a thermometer for presidential elections as well as a pendulum state. Whoever wins in the state gets the Presidency of the Republic.

Amazonas also determined the winner, but Minas has a more similar rate to the national vote and is demographically relevant, the second largest electoral college behind São Paulo. The story of this election might have been different had the state transferred a substantial majority of its votes to its former governor, Aécio Neves (PSDB) in 2014.

The diversity of its 853 municipalities makes it a kind of social and economic example of Brazil and, as a result, a portrait of electoral behavior. Running from Vale do Jequitinhonha through Vale do Aço, Grande BH, Sul de Minas and Triângulo Mineiro, there are industrialized regions, poor and rich, urban and rural, that focus on agribusiness and family farming. country.

Sometimes Minas votes more with candidates on the left, sometimes more on the right.

This makes putting platforms together to win the hearts and minds of miners one of the main challenges of the pre-candidates for Palácio do Planalto. Having Itamar Franco from Minas Gerais on the ticket was important to Fernando Collor de Mello, as was Lula getting the help of José Alencar of Minas Gerais. Today, Lula (PT) is following governor Romeu Zema (Novo) Bolsonaro (PL) as it discusses an alliance with former mayor Alexandre Kalil (PSD).

The Genial/Quaest poll released this Friday (13) points to the former president, with 44% of the voting rates in Minas Gerais and 28% of the current president.

In the previous survey, indices ranged from 46% to 21% in March. Although it is not possible to make a comparison considering the entries and exits of the candidates, the difference between them increased from 25 to 16 in two months. Meanwhile, Zema has 41% and Kalil 30%.

Will the pattern of being a thermometer of the national campaign repeat itself in October this year? It’s hard to say.

A situation similar to that of Minas Gerais was that of Ohio, the pendulum state for the presidential election in the United States, sometimes pointing one side and sometimes the other. Whoever leads the state from 1964 to 2016 wins the White House. The folklore continued until 2020, when Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump there but consistently won the national election.

Below is the rounded version of valid votes nationally and in Minas Gerais over the past 33 years:

1989: Collor vs. Lula
Looking at the national results in 1989, Fernando Collor de Mello was elected with 53% of the valid votes and Lula with 47%. In Minas Gerais, Collor had a 55% to 44% odds of winning in the second round.

1994: FHC – Lula
Looking at the national results in 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 55% of the valid votes and 40% of Lula. In Minas Gerais, the FHC won in the first round, with 65% to 22% of the vote.

1998: FHC etc. Squid
Looking at the national results in 1998, Fernando Henrique Cardoso was elected with 53% of the valid votes and 32% of Lula. In Minas Gerais, the FHC took a 56% to 28% victory in the first round.

2002: Lula etc. mountain range
Looking at the national results in 2002, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and José Serra with 39%. In Minas Gerais, Lula won in the second round with 66% to 33% of the vote.

2006: Lula etc. alckmin
Considering the national results in 2006, Lula was elected with 61% of the valid votes and 39% over Geraldo Alckmin. In Minas Gerais, Lula won the second round with 65% to 35% of the vote.

2010: Dilma etc. mountain range
Looking at the national results in 2010, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 56% of the valid votes and José Serra with 44%. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won the second round with 58% to 42% of the vote.

2014: Dilma etc. Aetius
Looking at the national results in 2014, Dilma Rousseff was elected with 52% of the valid votes, and Aécio Neves with 48%. In Minas Gerais, Dilma won the second round with 52% to 48% of the vote.

2018: Bolsonaro etc. haddad
Considering the national results in 2018, Jair Bolsonaro received 55 percent of the valid votes and Fernando Haddad received 45 percent. In Minas Gerais, Bolsonaro won the second round with 58% to 42% of the vote.