The war in Ukraine: the accession of Finland and Sweden, a “blessing” for NATO concerned with Russia

The Swedish government announced on Monday that it would ask to join NATO as Finn did this weekend. The two Scandinavian countries, military neutral for decades (two centuries in the case of Swedish) they changed habit when Russia invaded Ukraine.

After the debate and parliamentary vote, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson announced that she had decided to “let NATO know that Sweden wants to be a member state of the Alliance”.

The request came after a change in the position of Andersson’s party, the ruling Social Democratic Party, who defended military neutrality of the country since the end of World War II.

The security situation in Finland and Sweden changed on February 24 when Russian tanks entered Ukraine. And with their requests for membership, NATO will change as well.

The application for membership is generally seen as a way for these two countries to place themselves under NATO’s security umbrella out of fear of Moscow, but entry, from the Atlantic Alliance headquarters in Evere (Brussels ), is seen from a different point of view. Finland and Sweden, more of a burden for NATO, are a blessing.

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The Baltic Sea, the entrance to which Denmark controls, is always seen as an integrated sea. For decades it bathed the waters of West Germany and Denmark (NATO), of neutral Sweden and Finland and of the countries in the former Warsaw Pact (East Germany and Poland, as well as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, then merged in the Soviet Union).

The end of the cold war changed the situation somewhat. All of Germany, Poland and the Baltics became NATO territory, but the northern bank, along with Finland and Sweden, remained neutral and Russia retained control of the Baltic coast and of the enclave of Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania.

With the entry of Finland and Sweden the Baltic becomes a sea almost controlled by NATO except for the small Russian exit from St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.

NATO headquarters did not recognize this but always feared that they would not be able to defend the three Baltic republics in the event of a Russian attack. There are no large military contingents in their territory, they have a meager Armed Forces and their protection will be very complicated. The entry of Sweden and Finland changes everything.

The extent of the territory of the two countries you can make them defense platforms of the Baltics in the event of an attack by Russia.

Finland’s entry is also a challenge as NATO’s direct land border with Russia will increase from 1,215 kilometers to 2,555. The Finnish government claims that will protect the boundary of its land in their own way as before.

Finland and Sweden do not go to NATO empty -handed. Or as Finnish European Affairs Minister Tytti Tuppurainen said this weekend, “We will be a resource, not a burden”.

Finland has only 5.5 million inhabitants and 12,000 professional soldiers, but it has 870,000 people on the reserve which received military training and was immediately able to mobilize 280,000. Its artillery capacity is one of the largest in Europe.

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Its Navy specializes to work in the Baltic and Arctic and it has a very strong Air Force for the size and economic capacity of the country. In December, it ordered another 64 US F-35 fighter jets.

Spent by the country in 2021 1.9% of its GDP in Defense, bordering on the 2% target required by NATO. This year it will approach 2.5%. Sweden did not come that far but began to reverse the disbandment of its Army. In 2017, he returned to compulsory military service (for both men and women).

The Defense budget will rise to 1.26% in 2021 and the government is committed to reaching 2% within a few years.

Sweden has 50,000 soldiers but half are non -professional reservists. But it provides the modern defense industry that produces its military material and for export, such as its Gripen fighter planes, submarines and corvettes. Along with Denmark and thanks to its port of Gothenburg, it is the gateway to the Baltic and at the same time reaches the Arctic. To the north it has a naval fleet near Russia.

Sweden has also joined NATO in Gotland, the island in the middle of the Baltic described as “an impossible to sink aircraft carrier”. This is a great place to control air and sea traffic and it is several hundred kilometers from any country in the region.

Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO takes some political and administrative steps that could take several months, although the go-ahead can already be given at the Madrid summit on June 28, 29 and 30. But in practice, its Armed Forces is almost internally.

Both the Swedish and Finnish military have been participating in NATO missions and military exercises for many years. His generals regularly attend meetings of their counterparts and his ministers participate in summits for several months. Your Armed Forces are fully compatible including NATO member countries.

The only doubt that has emerged in recent days is a possible Turkish veto. The entry of a new country into NATO requires the approval of its current 30 member states. No one put up any hits except Turkish. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made reference to the fact that in recent decades Sweden is one of the countries that granted asylum Kurdish militants considered by Turkey to be terrorists.

This past weekend the foreign ministers of Finland and Sweden met in Berlin with Turkey under the leadership of the German chancellor. At NATO headquarters is already estimated Erdogan has no intention of vetoingr the income of those two countries but to get a replacement.

Finland and Sweden provide asylum to Kurdish PKK leaders, whose armed wing Washington and Brussels recognize as a terrorist.

In 2019, Erdogan refused to support NATO’s defense plans in Poland and the Baltic countries until recognized by NATO member states. the Kurdish PKK as a terrorist group. Now he can try to negotiate other issues, for example having Washington remove the penalty for buying Russian anti-aircraft and allow him to buy F-35 fighter jets.

PB