Vladimir Putin’s retreats against Ukraine

The Russian president wanted to quickly seize the Russian -speaking territories of Ukraine, but now seems unable to control his line of action. A blitzkrieg, a blitzkriegwhich obviously doesn’t work, examines Russian political scientist and specialist, Pierre Binette. His approach was thwarted by a stronger than expected offensive. He wants a poor Ukraine and on the contrary, it is strengthened. He has a level of weaponry he has never experienced beforeadded the professor of political science at Sherbrooke University.

If one of the main ambitions of the Russian president was to slow down the development of the Western zone of influence towards his country, he apparently did not think that this aggression against his neighbor would strengthen relations between the countries. member of NATO. , and even urge some countries to demand its protection, says Pierre Binette.

” In fact, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the unity of NATO member countries in an unusual way. “

Because before the war, NATO, which was formed after World War II, was showing clear signs of fatigue. Let us only remember the misunderstanding and untimely declarations of former American President Donald Trump or the tragic death of French President Emmanuel Macron in 2019. Today, the nations, who are at loggerheads, are more united, and the NATO attracts two countries to Scandinavia, Russia’s neighbors. One way for them to get a specific insurance policy against a Russian president whose behavior is considered worrying.

Vladimir Putin counts heavily on divisions within Europe, a division fueled by a large part of the confidence of some European countries. [au pétrole]and especially Russian gas, added the political scientist. Although Russia’s energy issue has been controversial and Russia has cut gas to some European countries in retaliation, it doesn’t seem to have had the desired impact so far.

A colossus with clay feet?

The colossus also shows obvious signs of weakness in the face of a rugged, determined and more prepared opponent, according to Rémi Landry, retired lieutenant-colonel of the Canadian Armed Forces.

He points out that the Russian army is made up of conscripts, soldiers who are forced to enlist and may not have the necessary motivation. He also points out that the Russian army made strategic mistakes by attacking several fronts at once, and the battle in the city proved very difficult. In the field, these are signals that let you understand that your structure is more or less orderly. You have no ability to feed [vos soldats], to give them the supply they need to fight. You probably have a problem [démotivation].

According to Rémi Landry, the image of the first Russian soldier tried in Ukraine for a war crime says a lot about one of the organizational weaknesses of the Russian army. Vadim Shishimarin, just 21 years old, is a very young non-commissioned officer, who he said does not have enough experience to hold the rank of sergeant. I can tell you that in the Canadian Armed Forces, you don’t have a sergeant at age 21. If the individual turns 18, give it at least 8 to 10 years before he or she reaches that rank.

” [Le sous-officier], he was like the older brother inside the fighter unit. He is an experienced and helpful person [les soldats sur le terrain]. “

Pierre Binette said for his part that shortness of breath was also felt within Ukrainian forces. Their ability to renew troops is also more limited. The most effective Ukrainian forces are still struggling today. They took the parts, but the Russians took the rest. And the Russians have a larger population pool. Despite everything, Ukrainian fighters still show a strong capacity for resistance, according to him.

” Putin does not believe that the Ukrainians are strong enough to stop the powerful Russian army. “

The future of Vladimir Putin

Although the conflict has significant humanitarian and economic consequences, Vladimir Putin still has the support of a large portion of the population. However, it can quickly wither, Professor Binette believes. By interfering, then hoping he will be accepted as a hero in Russian -speaking parts of Ukraine, he is playing the card of nationalism, and a nationalism with strong support in Russian public opinion. But that is not what happened.

” Young people are more opposed to a war against Ukraine and are less exposed to Russian propaganda because they have diverse sources of information. “

For his part, Rémi Landry added that Russian soldiers may have had, in his opinion, a completely different perspective of the conflict when they faced realities on the ground. There’s the whole side of misinformation. When we say [aux soldats russes] “You free someone who is led by a group of Nazis. That’s all [leurs soldats] What you want to do is destroy everyone with Russian or Russian -speaking names inside Ukraine. “And then when you come, you fight back, then you realize that’s not quite. You see the problem. It’s like you’re being lied to. That you are doing something that ultimately does not correspond to reality.

The Russians are also experiencing the effects of the war, Pierre Binette said, and it could also have an impact on support for their president. Their country is experiencing a significant decline in its GDP, and some Western companies have decided to pack up. The departure of American restaurant chain McDonald’s and French engine manufacturer Renault are just a few examples.

The reversals of the fate of the Russian army in some battles will even have an impact on authority almost holy by President Putin. Pierre Binette said Russian analysts pointed to significant disagreements between the president and senior army officials. There are rumors […] like what would happen to disputes with Russian generals who promised him a quick victory, Pierre Binette underlined. There will be very important disputes between Putin and the FSB, Russia’s intelligence service. He would have fired several hundred Russian spies and leaders.

More isolated than ever from Western countries, has Putin still been here for a long time? There are rumors that his power is in doubt at the moment, the specialist says, but these are just rumors that he is in a hurry to clarify.

It is certain that if the battle is chaotic even more of his power is a threat, Pierre Binette believes. He cannot continue in power if he does not win or if he does not step down. How can we do business in Russia? Biden set the limit: we’re not talking to a war criminal.

Ukraine’s Post-War Solution Will Require Putin’s Release Voluntary or Nothe concludes.