Pointing to Lula’s likelihood of a first-round victory, the Datafolha poll reinforces the PT’s strategy of turning the dispute into a popular vote and asking for a useful vote to try to define the game in the first round on Oct.
Datafolha’s figures show a consolidated polarization between Lula and President Jair Bolsonaro, narrowing the nomination path of Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB).
In this context, the PT’s strategy of garnering non-partisan support and getting some more votes from evangelical, young and female voters could lead the party to win its first presidential election in the first round of 2022. The PT lost the 2002, 2006, 2010 elections and the 2014. 1989, 1994, 1998 and 2018 elections.
According to Datafolha, Lula would have had 30% of the votes valid today versus 54% for Bolsonaro. The number of valid votes does not include blank and invalid votes.
In the first-round simulation, Lula has 48% versus 40% of the opponents total. Bolsonaro took 27 percent. Cyrus, 7%. Tebet, 2%. André Janones (Avante), 2%. Pablo Marçal (Professionals), 1%. Vera Lucia (PSTU), 1%. Other candidates failed to score. A total of 7% and 4% of the white and invalid votes failed to respond.
In the second-round scenario, Lula widened the lead. He is now ahead by 25 percent. Data from the current survey is 58% for PT and 33% for Bolsonaro. The March poll showed 55% versus 34%.
The economic disaster led by the Bolsonaro government is the main explanation for Lula’s relaxed leadership in Datafolha. James Carville used to say, “This is the economy, you idiot.”
American Carville was Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign strategist. Clinton defeated a presidential candidate, George Bush Sr., for reelection. The Gulf War (1990-1991) strengthened Bush, but the picture of the recession gave Bill Clinton the White House.
With a little over four months left in the election, Bolsonaro will have a hard time reversing his handicap. Brazilian presidents vying for reelection led Datafolha during this campaign period. Toucan Fernando Henrique Cardoso was re-elected in 1998. PT Lula and Dilma in 2006 and 2014 respectively.
With the economy in shambles and a president threatening democracy, the election scenario has never been more favorable for Lula in a presidential race. If he doesn’t make the mistake and cross the street to step on a banana peel, he’ll have to wear a presidential belt a third time.
The Datafolha survey was the subject of this Thursday’s special “Radar das Eleções”.
source: Noticias
