Tired of a country in crisis that has always been ruled by right-wing conservatives or liberals, Colombians can lean left for the first time on Sunday (29), and get on the train of this trend that crosses Latin America once again.
The 62-year-old Senator and ex-guerrilla Gustavo Petro, the favorite of all polls, believes he can win in the first round, but polls show he will have to compete for a second time on June 19 and will also take the lead in the voting.
Its main rival appears to be the 47-year-old right-wing Federico Gutiérrez in a country as polarized as it has been several times, but it is crying out for change in the face of the economic devastation of the pandemic. escalation of violence, corruption, inequality and the scars of the suppression of protests.
Six candidates are competing. Foreigner Rodolfo Hernández, a 77-year-old businessman, is getting closer to Gutiérrez, according to polls.
A third-time presidential candidate, Petro lost four years ago to right-wing Iván Duque, who by law was unable to run for reelection.
This second row in 2018 earned him a seat in Congress, where he rallied support to fight the government of the country of 50 million, an ally of the United States and the largest exporter of cocaine.
So Colombia can join the left, which is heading for most South American countries and bringing back Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil in October.
disenchantment
Paradoxically, in Colombia, all forces are calling for change after the unpopular Duque government (67%) unleashed an unprecedented social explosion.
“There’s a lot of frustration, a lot of anger, and I think Petro took advantage of that,” Michael Shifter, a professor at Georgetown University, told AFP.
The ruling right comes weakened. Its natural leader, former president Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), a former election hero, is in crisis due to judicial complications.
According to Jorge Restrepo, a professor at Universidad Javeriana, “Two emotions sum up the voters: this discontent and the need for change stemming from insecurity.”
The nominations were rounded off by centrist Sergio Fajardo (5.1%), evangelical John Milton Rodríguez (0.6%), and right-wing Enrique Gómez (0.3%).
peace and polarization
A new duel between opposing forces is the expression of a country divided after the peace agreement signed in 2016.
Elizabeth Dickinson, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, says the historic agreement to disarm the FARC rebels makes room for the “political left” that bears a “strong stamp” for its “affiliation with guerrillas” during the armed conflict.
Duque failed to amend the agreement, and nearly six years later, all candidates pledged to continue implementing the agreement in the face of international criticism over the killing of 332 ex-combatants and the resurgence of violence.
The choices will also respond to the dichotomy between “saving the practice” or “burying the deal,” according to Dickinson. And in the plus signs: a possible resumption of negotiations with the ELN guerrillas.
After sixty years of armed conflict, the advancement of the left across the electoral spectrum has troubled a new actor: the military leadership has broken the silence and turned to Peter.
Popular in its fight against the guerrillas, the Armed Forces had until then been out of politics, adhering to a law that prevented them from voting and negotiating.
Petro became militant in the M-19, an urban guerrilla who signed the peace in 1990 (2012-2015) before exiling himself for a time to Europe and returning to his country to become a legislator and then mayor of Bogota.
rare climate
Threats against candidates and suspicions of fraud permeated the campaign.
Under the specter of the spell that has blocked the presidential aspirations of five 20th-century politicians in the past, the main candidates denounced the risks to their security: Petro; running mate Francia Márquez; and Gutierrez.
And at this final stage, insecurity in the electoral process fueled the debate.
In one of the most unequal countries in the world and impoverished by the pandemic (39%), Petro proposes a less oil-dependent economy and an environmental and progressive agenda on social issues.
Gutiérrez, on the other hand, struggles to distance himself from Duque, despite advocating for the same causes—security, private investment, strict government, traditional family values.
He’s also trying to link the Petro with the collapsing Venezuelan government, whose crisis has pushed 1.8 million immigrants to Colombia.
“This whole election, to put it bluntly, is about Petro. Win or lose, it will be up to him,” says Dickinson.
The figure of Francia Márquez, 40, who may be the first black woman to hold a vice presidency, is waving feminist flags and embroiled in racism in the country.
The Center, too, arrives divided and overwhelmed by this conflict.
source: Noticias
