Brazilian democracy is not dead. But it is seriously threatened. The warning comes from Steve Levitsky, a professor at Harvard University, political scientist and author of the best-selling book “How Democracies Die” (2018).
The American, Director of the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, makes it clear that “Brazil matters” and that the eventual institutional breakdown in the country and the success of a coup by Jair Bolsonaro would have a “terrible” impact on democracy in America. Latin. In his assessment, the Army’s position will be at the center of the country’s destiny.
Levitsky also warns that to stop the coup attempt, the opposition must form a broad alliance to defeat Bolsonaro with a single candidate. Here are key excerpts from the interview:
Is Brazilian democracy under threat?
Yeah, I think so too. When a presidential democracy, such as in Brazil or the United States, elects a president who does not adhere to the democratic rules of the game, you are putting democracy at risk. We have seen this in the United States, which has very strong democratic institutions. It has been a constitutional republic for two centuries. Despite this, despite the strength of US democratic institutions, Donald Trump nearly staged a presidential coup of his own in 2020 and early 2021.
He made a serious effort to steal an election, leading to an almost violent blockade of the transfer of power. This happened because he elected an authoritarian president in the USA.
Of course, a similar crisis may occur in Brazil. So Brazilian democracy is not dead. Brazilian democracy is not dying. There are some real power supplies. But under threat, I would say yes.
One of the arguments we heard back then in the US was that there was election fraud. Unsurprisingly, this is exactly the argument being used in Brazil four months before the election. What steps can we take to protect the system to avoid a repeat of the same US scenario?
First, Brazil has a very good electoral system. Much better than what we have in the US. The American system is much more vulnerable to fraud and manipulation than the Brazilian system. Therefore, the Brazilian Congress’s blocking of changes in the electoral system, the return to the ballot box as suggested by Bolsonaro, was a very positive move in my opinion.
The other is to raise awareness. It is much more difficult to steal an election or spoil the outcome of an election if there is a large public debate about it. It’s easier to steal a selection by surprise. Therefore, I think it is important that Brazilian civil society, Brazilian media and Brazilian opposition are ready for this.
The other precaution I think could be taken and not taken in Brazil is that when you are faced with an authoritarian threat like Trump or Bolsonaro, it is very important to form a very broad coalition against that authoritarian one.
If there is a possibility that the president is trying to create a crisis and says there is corruption and tries to cancel the election, turn the election result, the best way to avoid it is a big win to beat him: 60% to 40% in the first round. This requires all opposition, from PT to centre-right, to unite in the first round.
People will say it’s politically impossible. But I think it’s the best way to get a clean sweep. The best way to avoid scams is a clean scan. And the best way to achieve a sweeping victory is with a single candidate in a first-round victory. Unfortunately, that doesn’t look like it will happen.
In Hungary, we saw the presentation of an opposition coalition and a single candidate. However, Viktor Orbán won the election again. What does Hungary teach us about these leaders’ seizure of power?
I want to make a distinction between Hungary and Brazil. But it’s a lesson you pointed out, and I think you’re right, the longer these guys spend in power, the easier it is for them to consolidate power. And tampering the playing field against the opposition. Orbán has been in power for over a decade. He controlled all the media around 2021 and 2022, he controlled the judiciary. So the playing field was very uneven. The opposition united and did the right thing. Hungary looks more like Venezuela than Brazil. The opposition is fighting unfairly, and in an authoritarian regime, when the opposition does everything right, it often loses.
There is an authoritarian figure in Brazil who could do a lot of damage to the system but has yet to destabilize the playing field – he does not control the press, he does not control civil society, and he has not weakened the opposition like Orbán did. So the unity of the opposition will bring much more results in Brazil than in Hungary.
And what is the role of the Army?
The military is certainly a critical actor. You cannot carry out a presidential coup d’etat without the cooperation of a certain level of the military. In the end, that’s why Trump failed. Because the Army would not allow him to be borrowed for his adventures. In Brazil this is an open question. Trump’s idea of mobilizing the military would therefore have been very difficult, as the US has a long tradition of civilian control over the military. He aligns the army with Bolsonaro, strengthens the army, does the army a favor.
It is very interesting that Bolsonaro is constantly copying Trump. He even copied the failures. Trump’s covid policy was a disaster. Bolsonaro seems to have copied it. Trump attempts a coup on himself, fails and loses, and his power is running out. Bolsonaro appears to be following a similar guideline.
I think Bolsonaro will fail too if the Brazilian army refuses to cooperate with his adventures. But if he can somehow get the military to cooperate, he may have a different and luckier outcome than Trump. So far, however, it seems unlikely that the military commander will cooperate with Bolsonaro.
How can the international community prevent a self-coup in Brazil?
It’s a pretty minor role, especially in a big country like the USA or Brazil. It could play a bigger role in a smaller country like Honduras or Bolivia. But the international response is not as significant or influential as it was in the 1990s.
The 1990s were the decade of global democracy. The USSR collapsed, communism collapsed, and western-style democracy was the only game in town. The USA and Western Europe were military, economic, political and cultural powers on Earth. At that time, the international response was crucial. Not so much for Brazil, which is a very large country. But in many Latin American countries, the US now has much less influence. The Liberal West has far less influence than it did 30 years ago. This is because of the inevitable dispersal of power around the world, the role of Russia and China.
That’s why a quick and determined international response helps. But I don’t think that was decisive in the Trump and Biden case. I don’t think that will be decisive in the Bolsonaro and Lula case. But it helps.
What is at stake in Latin America if the Brazilian election turns into institutional chaos?
It’s hard to say. But my guess is there’s a lot at stake. Again, Brazil is huge and very influential. It is not difficult to remember that the 1964 coup in Brazil had a strong demonstration effect in the rest of the region. Brazil was in many ways the first of its kind and is now known as an authoritarian bureaucratic regime. And after the Brazilian coup and its success and the success of the military in the early years, Brazil had a lot of influence in most of the region.
Even permanent democracies like Uruguay and Chile followed suit. I don’t mean to say that everything Brazil does is copied. But what happens in Brazil is much more important in Latin America than what happens in Nicaragua, Bolivia or Ecuador.
This will be watched closely. I was worried about this. If Bolsonaro is his role model and he achieves results, he will be a role model for the rest of the region. We’ve already seen small Bolsonaros spawning in places like Peru, Chile, and others. But if Bolsonaro succeeds, if he becomes a model for the region, that would be terrible for democracy.
What image does Brazil project abroad today?
Brazil went through a very difficult period of almost ten years. The last seven or eight years have been very difficult. In a sense, it was the perfect storm. One of the worst economic crises in the country’s history, combined with the largest corruption scandal in history in a Western democracy, coupled with a dire issue of violent crime that led to the election of a man many Brazilians are not proud of. .
It’s tough for an American to travel abroad and admit to being an American because our president was Trump for four years. That’s how many Brazilians feel. Bolsonaro is a very repulsive figure to many people outside of Brazil. Therefore, with all its potential and real economic and geopolitical power, Brazil is going through a very difficult time. Your image as a parent is that you’re in decline, that you’re kind of a failure.
But Brazil has experienced this before. Brazil has many advantages like the USA. Not Brazil, Nicaragua or Venezuela. Brazil has a strong civil society, a strong state and other institutions. Like the United States, there is a perception that a lot can go wrong about Brazil, but as at the turn of the 21st century, there is the raw material for things to go very well and Brazil to do a lot of good. .
Despite all the crises, Brazil and the USA have the potential to be two of the most interesting multiethnic democracies in the world.
I’m not talking about the outside. But for me. I have a lot of hope in Brazil. Those of us who care about democracy are watching very closely what is happening in Brazil. We know it’s very important.
source: Noticias
