One hundred days of war in Ukraine: the dangerous Russian advance and a bleak scenario for the world economy

The 100th anniversary of the war in Ukraine and the belief that the prospects for the World crisisespecially in the social economic field, it accumulates unknowns.

Russia is already on the verge of completing the occupation of the Donbas region, the richest in Ukraine, and of achieving the victory that would complete the second phase of the conflict, having lost the first phase that began on February 24 with the invasion. .

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already warned that the war will not end until “all goals” are achieved, which could mean that the third stage is to send the bulk of his war machine south to complete the occupations e conquer all the coasts of the Black Sea with the complete exclusion of Ukraine from a vital maritime outlet for its existence.

But the third phase forces Russia to do so a difficult strategic achievement which has the name of a historical metropolis – Odessa.

Odessa is many things, including a historical, cultural and architectural jewel of mankind. Destroying it will mean a serious loss of prestige for Russia. But Odessa seems ready to resist and is a port of world importance, today crowded with cargoes of grain with paralyzed ships and the waters of the Black Sea populated by thousands of mines.

Completing “all objectives” in another bloody phase would take Moscow’s troops to the neighboring strip of land of Transnistria, ruled by a republic recognized only by Russia – Moldova – which has a permanent continent of 2,000 troops.

Third phase of war or negotiations?

And then? And before? If Russia gives up on the third stage, it would have to loosen the reins to get started negotiations that would be very long. If he completes the plan to occupy the south, subjugate Odessa and totally Russify the northern shores of the Black Sea, he should promote peace negotiations with a humiliated Ukraine with a bang.

Is it a realistic scenario? Despite Vladimir Putin says the opposite, time plays against the Russians because in the European summer the sanctions (more than ten thousand) will begin to be felt to transform mother Russia into an international pariah.

In a year sanctions will bite the Russian economy hard. And the more time passes, the worse it will be. The Americans warn that the crisis “will be long, perhaps very long”.

That’s what they want. The United States and China, the strategic adversaries, are so far the winners of this tragedy unleashed by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin when he made the historic gesture of ordering the invasion of Ukraine, believing that victory would be achieved in a very short time.

immediately the war is currently eroding the Ukrainians. President Volodimir Zelensky has estimated military casualties as high as one hundred per day, with around 500 deaths.

The weapons of the West

All hopes are pinned on the arrival of the new weapons necessary to stop the prolonged advance of the Russians in the Donbas. It is estimated that three weeks pass between the arrival of the most modern and effective weapons and the time required for training. Ignored at the start of shipments.

The artillery of the “queen of fire”, as the Russians have called it since the Second World War, is crushing the Ukrainian cities of Donbas and massacring the troops. The American antidote is Himars high-mobility missile systems, which fire accurately at a range of about 80 kilometers, twice the range of current Howitzers. The British contribute with the Cps-driven M270B1 multiple launch system, which uses powerful warheads launched at great distances with great accuracy.

Military observers warn that these and other undisclosed missile systems could turn the war in the Donbas upside down. But they believe that in practice they will serve to reduce the disadvantages that force the Ukrainian forces to withdraw.

The Western military offer is continuous but are the new weapons that will alleviate the situation of the Ukrainian troops.

Training teams are already in Ukraine and in countries beyond the borders. A British spokesman said that “Russia’s tactics are changing, as is our support for Ukraine”.

Military training

Americans and British who operate in the theater of war are convinced that the Himars systems will allow to stop the Russian advance. For example with its six-missile preload capsule.

“It is enough to train a small team for a few days and the Himars are ready to be recharged,” said a US manager. Himars can keep the Russians at bay by punishing their lines and keeping a safe distance from enemy artillery.

Himars are ideal for destroying Russian supply depots, “increasing Putin’s logistical problems”.

The Russian spokesman commented on these announcements with the phrase: “Washington throws more fuel on the fire”.

The improvement in the quality of the armaments that Ukrainians receive from the US and EU countries begins to replace US drones with a Predator model armed with Hellfire missiles. The escalation of military engagement.

Some observers suspect that behind the announcements there is not only help to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas, but to organize a counter-offensive by the Kyiv government.

One of the objectives of this maneuver is to force Putin to go to talks and to put Ukrainian President Zelensky in better conditions on the battlefield to face. negotiations, which will be difficult and protracted.

The US Pentagon is convinced that Russian forces are doing their best and will be more vulnerable later on.

The role of China

China plays an ambiguous role in supporting the Russians but respecting Western sanctions. For example, the Beijing government has banned Russian-chartered planes from using Chinese airports.

How the role of the second superpower will evolve against the United States and its European allies in the Russian crisis a fundamental strategic unknown. Beijing and Washington agree that the main strategic scenario of the world today confronts them in the so-called Indo-Pacific, a gigantic space of the Indian and Pacific oceans where both superpowers play a preponderant role full of dangers and opportunities.

Packed with vital sea routes for the countries of the area that produce more than half of the world’s wealth, with difficult straits and continuous confrontations due to border disputes, the Indo-Pacific is the main geopolitical nerve center of the Earth. The military landscape is being revolutionized by technological advances.

The Americans have just announced that in a few months they will present “Orca”, an ultra-avant-garde submarine that sails without a pilot or crew. It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to predict the terrifying showdown of two large fleets full of weapons without even a sailor on board. There are only a few decades left to bring this scenario to life.

The economic strength of Russia

Evoking Sancho Panza, Don Quixote’s royalist squire, one conclusion is that to suspect that time is playing against Putin in this conflict which, as a sorcerer’s apprentice, he himself has created, one need only recall the economic dimension of Russia and its status as a main producer of gas and oil, raw materials and weapons.

In the list of gross domestic product dimensions of the countries of the world, the United States leads with 20.5 billion (millions of millions) of dollars, followed by the 27 countries of the European Union with 18.5 billion and China with 13.1 billions.

Russia is between 10th and 11th place, always behind Brazil with 1.9 billion. It records 1.8 trillion in the International Monetary Fund band, far from Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and India.

It should be added that the main trading partners of China, the friend Russia is trying to cling to, are the United States and the countries of the European Union, the richest markets in the world.

And to the question of how far their solidarity with Russia goes, the Chinese reply: “We will always follow the interests of the Chinese people”.

These numbers are unquestionable cannon shots that describe the future population of sanctions that Russia will face. The crisis will not end with the crushing of Ukraine. The Western alliance will not allow this and sanctions will eventually prevail, even with long times that will serve the peoples of the nations to pay the hardest for this epochal crisis.

Rome, correspondent

CB