UK: Why is Boris Johnson facing a no-confidence motion?

If Prime Minister Boris Johnson is defeated this Friday, it will be because of a sum of reasons and not Partygate (the party scandal in Downing St in full confinement during the pandemic). The elimination of Brexit, in full economic chaos on the island and without manpower in the basic industries of the kingdom, is one of them.

Britain is submerged today one of the worst economic crises in its history, with an inflation rate of 7.8 percent, a cost of living unaffordable for the middle classes, mortgages on their homes impossible to pay due to rising interest rates. With conservative MPs ready to do it rejoin the single European marketwhich they abandoned with Brexit, to fight this inflationary spiral and not further isolate the kingdom economically.

Brexiteers and others kick him out

A very British paradox: the vote against Boris will be a vote in favor of abolishing Brexitsponsored by MPs who enthroned Boris Johnson to leave Europe and who today want him to leave Downing St.

It will be a vote for decency in the stateanti-corruption and for the recovery of a pure ideological identity, which conservatives believe they have lost due to Brexit and their populism.

The necessary support of the Labor voters of the Red Wall or red wall of the North of Great Britain, who voted for the first time for a conservative like Boris because they are in favor of Brexit, weighs on his agenda, especially in the local elections that they will have to face in the next weeks. But they distort the identity of the Tories.

will also be a pro-European conservative vote. Many Conservative MPs believe they should return to the European single market, where they started with Brexit recover the country’s economy, return the lost workforce today, control inflation and solve the drama of the border between Europe and Northern Ireland. But this means that they must allow the free transit of Europeans, which they have canceled today.

Monarchy and regicide

Former Chancellor and former Conservative leader William Hague once described the Conservative Party as an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide. Boris Johnson became the latest Tory leader to be kicked out of the door of the most powerful post in politics. from the same people who put it there.

The same phenomenon that Margaret Thatcher experienced in November 1990, when Michael Heseltine challenged her in the party leader’s annual vote. She won it 204 to 152 votes. She was persuaded that she would not win a second vote and she resigned. It was the first it happened to. She has been replaced by John Major, her Chancellor of Finance.

So what exactly is the way to replace Johnson as a Conservative leader and, by extension, as Prime Minister?

Conservative MPs will vote a secret vote regardless of whether or not they trust Johnson’s leadership. It takes place this evening between 6 and 8 in the evening (from 14 to 16 Argentine time).

The result will be announced shortly after. If he loses, he should resign. To follow, he cannot face another challenge to his leadership for 12 months. Although that rule may be changed by the executive of the Conservative Committee of Parliamentarians of 1922.

180 MPs out of 359 are needed

Boris needs to convince 180 of the 359 Conservative MPs, far more than have moved against Johnson so far.

Rebel conspirators fear they won’t get enough support. Boris can win this vote of confidence. The future will depend on how much and on the fragility of the image of him, when he wasand publicly booed twice during the jubilee and Tory voters want to see it out.

At some point in the last ten days, since the last session of parliament, the threshold of 54 deputies needed to trigger a challenge to leadership has been reached. MPs demanded that it not be announced until after the queen’s jubilee.

This means that 15% of Conservative MPs wrote to the 1922 Committee Chair saying they no longer trusted Johnson as a leader. Only the president, Sir Graham Brady, know exactly who I am. Though about two dozen have publicly called for Johnson’s resignation.

Theoretically he can win the competition, but his position could be precarious. In 2018, Brexit MPs kicked off a vote on Theresa May’s leadership. Though they won easilydamaged his position as prime minister e he resigned the following year after failing to get his Brexit deal through the House of Commons.

numbers and alternatives

Boris plays poker. If only about 60 deputies If the Conservatives vote against Johnson, he will insist that he still has the support of the overwhelming majority of his fellow parliamentarians and the rebellion will effectively be over.

If the number of rebels approaches 150, your position will be much more precarious. She may survive for a while, but she may find, like Theresa May, that her ability to rule is limited.

His time as Prime Minister would be over. According to the rules, he would have to resign as leader of the Conservative Party and would not have been able to participate in the race that followed. However, he will remain prime minister until a successor is chosen. The details are determined by the executive of the 1922 Committee, in consultation with the Conservative Party council.

The competition for leadership

If you lose or quit, start the race to replace Boris Johnson as leader and prime minister. There are no general elections. Only change of boss and ergo, of prime minister. But the process is long, not immediate.

In the latest leadership contest, won by Johnson, any MP could stand if I could the support of eight colleagues.

Three days after the closing of the nominations, the parliamentarians held the first vote. At least every candidate needed 17 votes to go to the next round. If all candidates received more than 17 votes, the candidate with the fewest votes would be eliminated.

The second round took place five days later. The remaining candidates needed at least 33 votes to continue. In the following rounds, the candidate with the fewest votes was eliminated. until there are two candidates left.

Any leadership election is likely to follow a substantially similar process. But it is possible that the amount of support that each candidate must get in each round increase to reflect the largest number of Conservative MPs in general.

Once the MPs have narrowed down the field to two candidates, the competition opens to members of the Conservative Party. It may take some time: in 2019 there was a one month campaignwith election campaigns across the countrybefore the counting of votes. If there is a leadership contest this year, it will likely follow a similar timeline.

With a new leader, Boris leaves

Once a new leader is elected, it is expected that Johnson offers his resignation to the queen. His successor would later go to Buckingham Palace to seek his approval to form a new government. Britain cannot be without a prime minister. So Johnson is expected to stay in office until then.

The cabinet should agree on a temporary successor while a leadership competition takes place. it probably would Domenico Raab, Johnson’s deputy. But potential leadership challengers may want to make sure the custodian prime minister wasn’t someone who intended to run the race himself.

Paris, correspondent

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