Is Western support for Ukraine dwindling?

While Russia is making some progress in the Donbass, are differences emerging in the West’s agreement on Ukraine?

As Russian forces slowly advance in the eastern region of Donbass and military experts speak of a long war of attrition, cracks appear to be forming in Western support for Ukraine.

What does it think of the fierce Western debates about how Russia can best support Ukraine and to what extent Russia should be punished, as Russia steers its actions from the lavish halls of the Kremlin?

In one corner he sees governments in Britain, Poland and the Baltic advocating the definitive defeat of Russia.

“We must ensure that Russia is expelled from Ukraine by Ukrainians,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said last week. said.

“The integrity of the Ukrainian territory is non-negotiable.”

On the other hand, Putin thinks leaders in France, Germany and Italy are calling for a different approach.

In early May, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He urged the West “not to succumb to the temptation of contempt or the spirit of vengeance”.

The next day, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said in a speech at the White House that people in Europe wanted to “imagine the possibility of a ceasefire with credible negotiations”.

After Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held an 80-minute conversation on Saturday to persuade Putin to allow Ukraine to export grain via the Black Sea, Latvia’s deputy prime minister was heavily critical of Westerners on social media.

“There seems to be a number of so-called western leaders who have a clear need for self-humiliation combined with a complete break from political reality,” said Artis Pabriks.

conflicting signals

But the most important thing for the Kremlin is the US president.

But Joe Biden sent different messages at different times. In March, he described Putin as a “war criminal” and suggested that regime change is needed in Moscow. This week he seemed reluctant to send Ukraine rocket systems that could “attack Russia”.

Former Russian Prime Minister and President Dmitry Medvedev described this statement as “logical”. But the US decision to send a more advanced rocket system to Ukraine on Wednesday has been described by the Kremlin as “throwing petrol on the fire”.

With the US president’s tradition of making headlines, it’s often up to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to present the government’s official position.

At the last meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Berlin, Blinken said the United States and its partners are “focused on giving Ukraine the strongest possible hand on the battlefield and at any negotiating table so that the country can repel Russian aggression and defend its independence and sovereignty”.

These are powerful words, but how exactly do you define “the strongest possible hand”? And what does it mean to “fully” defend Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty?

Are the conflicts starting to undermine the West’s agreement on Ukraine?

“Just look at how difficult it is to reach the oil embargo,” says Ian Bond, foreign policy director of the Center for European Reform, referring to the European Union’s difficult weeks of negotiation that resulted in a partial embargo on Russia. oil this week

The idea that the EU will impose sanctions on Russian gas is now abandoned. The Baltic states and Poland want this to happen soon, but Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas admitted this week that “any upcoming sanctions will be tougher”.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the gas embargo “will not be an issue in the next package of sanctions”.

more weapons

The West promised a lot, defends Kiev, but delivered little.

The American and German promise this week to provide multiple rockets and advanced artillery with air defense and radar systems will certainly help meet the urgent demands of Ukrainian commanders.

But the claims that the Germans are keeping up with past commitments and Joe Biden’s insistence that US weapons are only used to hit Russian targets inside Ukraine makes one wonder why the West is trying to set boundaries: Ukraine’s war effort when Russia knows no borders.

“It’s kind of a calibration going on,” says Ian Bond. It’s as if we were saying, ‘We want the Ukrainians to win the war, but not by much.'”

It is believed that Putin started the war confident that the West would not resist, but that the newly humiliated NATO members in Afghanistan would avoid a new international upheaval.

Some recent reports from Moscow point to gradual success on the battlefield and a growing confidence in the belief that “Europe will sooner or later get tired of helping,” in the words of a source quoted by the Meduza website.

The Kremlin may have been emboldened by the British government’s warning this week that up to six million British homes could face blackouts if Russia cuts gas supplies.

Could public dissatisfaction in the West undermine support for Ukraine?

There is a danger that Avril Haines, Director of US National Intelligence, announced to members of Congress last month.

“HE [Putin] He told members of the Senate Armed Forces Committee that “as food shortages, inflation, and energy prices worsen, he probably counts on the US and EU’s determination to flee.”

Despite all the concerns, the West’s agreement on Ukraine remained intact.

However, existing cracks can still widen.

“This could become a problem if both sides start making decisive gains,” says Ian Bond.

“If the Russians completely break through the Ukrainian lines in the east and begin to advance towards the Dnieper River, the question will arise how much territory Ukraine will be willing to sacrifice to reach a ceasefire.”

Likewise, if Ukrainian forces start pushing the Russians out, “there will be voices in the West saying ‘don’t try to recapture parts of Donbass that the Russians have controlled since 2014,'” Ian Bond says.

This isn’t a discussion that seems very relevant yet, but when senior American diplomat Henry Kissinger suggested in Davos that Ukraine should consider giving up land to make peace with Russia, it received an angry response in Ukraine.

This is a sign that intense discussions are yet to come.