The campaign for the first round of the legislative elections in France ends on Friday, before the mandatory closure. The protagonist is Hamlet: “It will or will not be”. Pro-Chavist populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon incorporated Shakespeare when he claimed that he would be French prime minister if he managed to impose his he left alliance (NUPES) as a majority in the National Assembly. He will be defined in the ballot on June 19.

“Yes, man, you will call him!”, Released the rebel Manuel Bompard. This was the response of the French head of state Emmanuel Macron, who had declared that “no political party can impose a name on the president”.

President Macron does not want his hands to be forced after the legislative elections. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who wants to be “elected prime minister” by a decision of the National Assembly, has turned the legislative campaign late in the third round of the presidential elections.

The vote of the Ni, which neither Macron nor Marine Le Pen wanted, brought Mélenchon to third place in the presidential elections and in the ballot he became the referee. Macron was re-elected with the votes of the Ni de Mélenchon.

“It is rare to win an election in which you do not appear,” replied the French head of state, in an interview on Friday 3 June in the regional press.

The president prefers that the person he appoints as prime minister leaves parliament. “No political party can name the president,” he said.

Mélenchon will not be nominated for deputy for the Bouches du Rhone. But he believes that his Nupes alliance, which brings together communists, ecologists, socialists and France Insumisa, will get 205 seats and It will snatch the absolute majority from Ensemble, Macron’s party. The Assembly would force the president to appoint him premier, with the threat of a motion of censure.

Legal and political challenge

What happens, legally and politically? If the Nupes alliance (New Ecological and Social Popular Union) wins the legislative elections, can Emmanuel Macron oppose the appointment of Jean-Luc Mélenchon as head of the government?

For Paul Cassia, professor of public law at the Panthéon-Sorbonne University, “we must distinguish between law and practice”. According to article 8 of the Constitution, it is the President of the Republic who appoints the Prime Minister.

“It is a discretionary power, he can choose whoever he wants,” explains the professor. “In theory, nothing obliges Emmanuel Macron to appoint Jean-Luc Mélenchon as prime minister, whatever the outcome of the legislative elections”, explains the specialist.

The Head of State, in fact, would be obliged to take into account “political considerations” and the “need not to overthrow the government” in case of cohabitation.

Under Article 49 of the Constitution, the National Assembly can effectively question the responsibility of the government, by voting a motion of censure, if one tenth of the deputies ask for their resignation.

“If Nupes has a majority, Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint Jean-Luc Mélenchon as prime minister,” concluded Paul Cassia.

But for Benjamin Morel, professor of public law at the Paris-Panthéon-Assas University, “he could also name someone who would be acceptable to socialists, environmentalists and LREM”, without it being Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and thus “test” the new alliance between the Ignaro Mélenchon and the rest of the left.

Consequently, the president would form an “alternative majority” to that of the New People’s Ecological and Social Union. “The PS and the EELV are linked only by a moral agreement with France Insumisa,” said the professor.

This operation would be “theoretically possible” but, still, “politically risky”, summed up Paul Cassia. Very difficult times for French politics, in the midst of the cost of living crisis, inflation, shortages, the unstoppable increase in fuel and food.

“Domestic partnership”

Two out of three French people want coexistence but not Jean-Luc Mélenchon as prime minister.

In the history of the V Republic, it was customary for the head of state to designate the head of the majority in case of coexistence between two political forces in power.

“In 1986 as in 1997, the logic was to choose the leader of the party or coalition that won the legislative elections, namely Jacques Chirac and then Lionel Jospin”, remembers Pierre-Frédéric Charpentier, professor of political history at the IEP of Toulouse. .

In 1993, following the same logic, Chirac, then head of the victorious coalition between RPR and UDF, allowed Édouard Balladur to settle in Matignon (residence and office of the premier). If the left coalition wins e if he decides to follow tradition, Emmanuel Macron should appoint Jean-Luc Mélenchon as prime minister.

latest polls

France is strict with the release of polls before the elections. The disqualification begins on Friday evening until the first round is voted on Sunday. That day after 10pm the results will be known. But the final verdict will be on June 19th.

A poll released this Tuesday provides the Presidential Ensemble movement with 290 deputies in the Assembly, according to the most optimistic forecasts. That’s all only one seat above the absolute majority.

This Sunday’s election promises to be one of the most undecided in recent years. There is no guarantee that the ruling party will get an absolute majority, and Nupes might surprise you.

In this final stretch, the outgoing presidential majority goes head to head with the Nupes (LFI, EELV, PS, PCF) to emerge victorious in the first round. All the institutes, on the other hand, foresee a majority of seats for Ensemble (ex-LaREM) Horizons, Agir and MoDem, relative (less than 289 elected, but more than the rest of the groups) or absolute (more than 289 deputies).

The legislative elections of 2022 thus shine for them uncertainty, as the latest polls do not guarantee an absolute majority for Ensemble. According to the Ifop projections of 7 June, LaREM and allies would obtain between 250 and 290 seats and Nupes between 195 and 230.

If Together had only a relative majority, the government could apply its program. but it would seem forced to seek alliances to get your texts approved.

The prospect of coexistence is not excluded if the Nupes get more Ensemble seats. Without an alliance with the right or another force in the Assembly, Emmanuel Macron would be forced to appoint a Prime Minister of Nupes. Four days before the legislative elections, concern wins macronia.

Macronist and former Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls was the first victim. He deleted his Twitter account, eliminated in the first round by the French residing in the Iberian Peninsula.

The presidential camp has won in 8 of 11 electoral districts. But it has lost points in nearly all of them since 2017. More worryingly, Nupes candidates qualified in 10 constituencies, up from five in 2017.

The numbers that confirm a scenario that everyone feared in the presidential field. That of the rise of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), the left alliance led by a Jean-Luc Mélenchon who already sees himself as prime minister, to the detriment of the macronist camp, in decline.

Sympathies for Chavismo

Just look at the violence of the accusations leveled against the rebel leader for the fears of the majority, verify the seriousness with which the enemy Mélenchon is taken. Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire called him “the Chavez rooster”, the bearer of an economic program that would have bankrupted France.

For the head of the macronist deputies Christophe Castaner, it is rather towards the East that we must turn to grasp the dangers posed by the Nupes program, which according to him would bring together “all the clichés of the Soviet world”.

“The project by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen is disorder and submission. I have read the Nupes program. They mention the word taxation 20 times and the word prohibition 30 times, which gives a fairly clear idea of ​​the spirit of the project. for freedom, no doubt? It won’t drive people crazy, will it? ” mocked the head of state.

The new Minister for Relations with Parliament, Olivier Véran, warned Inter Milan on Wednesday of a “institutional crisiswith a country that would not be governable “in the event of a Nupes victory.

Provided anonymity, the president’s close guard no longer hesitates to express their fears in the press. At the Elysée they admitted to Le Monde that “it is not impossible” to see Nupes win on the night of June 19th. “It is possible to have a melenchonist majority,” warned Le figaro.

The various polls reflect this concern. Although they must be taken with caution, as legislative elections are held locally and respond to the dynamics of each territory.

Released on Tuesday, an Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI indicates that the presidential majority would come first in terms of seats, but without the certainty of obtaining a parliamentary majority, set in the National Assembly at 289 seats.

According to the best estimates, Ensemble, which brings together LaREM, Modem, Horizon and Agir, would get 290 deputies according to the best estimates, 250 according to the worst.

As for the Nupes, between 195 and 230 deputies could aspire to win. A situation that could harm several ministers running for elections, whose resignations would be required in case of defeat, as the Executive has already pointed out.

Criticisms and proposals

Mélénchon directly attacks Macron’s results and his unemployment data. He says the president announces he is on leave because he is hidden in apprenticeship contracts. There are 900,000 positions in this type of contract.

“Real unemployment is higher than ever,” warned Mélenchon. It affects 7.3 percent of the active population.

For economist Nicholas Baouzou, “Mélenchon is wrong both in his analysis and in his reasoning. If we listened to it, we would be in an ultra-liberal country. He seems to forget that public spending has never been as high as it is today. During the crisis, France entrusted homes and businesses to public assistance. In 1960, public spending accounted for 35% of GDP. Since the 1980s they have exceeded the 50% threshold “.

The “whatever it takes” idea took them beyond the 60% mark. “The initial view of the Nupes program is therefore simply false,” warned the expert.

Mélénchon also promises a change of treaties in the European Union and disobedience. But the main problem you will face will be the price of electricity. If they win, it will be the first big deal with Europe.

Another problem will be that the European Central Bank will have a different attitude and the financial markets could attack the French debt refinancing if Mélénchon wins. It does not rule out a return to the franc, the old national currency, and a brutal increase in taxes, with at least 14 brackets.

Paris, correspondent

CB