Elections in France: the legislative campaign ends with a technical draw

Last day of electoral campaign for the first round of the French legislative elections, which are heading towards historical abstention Next Sunday. The second round will take place on June 19 and will decide who will be the next French prime minister if Emmanuel Macron loses the parliamentary majority.

According to a survey by Odoxa-Backbone Consulting for the conservative newspaper Le Figaro, the turnout could come the lowest level since 1958 for a first round of legislative elections.

Alone 46% of the French You can go to the polls on Sunday 12 June. This is almost three points less than in 2017 (48.70%).

Participation has been steadily declining since 1993. At the time it was 68.93%, reflecting a 20-point decline in participation in nearly thirty years. in 1978 it even reached 83.25%the highest peak of the 5th Republic.

disinterest in politics

The polls reflect a lack of interest in politics in society, which can benefit militants of Jean Luc Mélenchon and his left-wing alliance, with which he wants to run for the office of prime minister, after winning the majority over Ensemble, Emmanuel Macron’s party.

According to the voting in the first round of presidential elections, the voters who are most likely to abstain are those of the communist Fabien Roussel, environmentalist Yannick Jadot and socialist Anne Hidalgo (58%), whose parties unite today behind the left-wing Nupes alliance for the legislative elections.

The abstention of those who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in April is estimated at 41% next Sunday. It also strongly affects the voters of Marine Le Pen (52%) and Eric Zemmour (46%). The voters of Emmanuel Macron are ultimately the least likely to abstain (36%), ahead of those of the conservative Republic Valérie Pécresse (37%).

the French they are not very fascinated for these legislative elections. Only 29% say they are “very” interested, a figure that has dropped by four points in two weeks and eight points compared to 2017.

Among the factors there is disinterest in politics in general (33%), the fact of not feeling represented by any candidate (24%), the feeling that the vote will not change the situation of the country (20%) or that the election has already been decided (15%).

On the left, as in the National Rally, Marine Le Pen’s party, the risk of demobilization is at the center of concern.

pedagogical candidates

Candidates must present themselves and explain that there are legislative elections. many citizens they ignore it and others are not interested. When they are lucky, the candidates express their ideas and defend their colors. But in most cases they must, with pedagogy, explain to people on the street the reason for your presence.

Reality forces them to do so, as many of them have no intention of voting, misunderstand the role of the deputy or even ignore that the elections are held on Sunday. This is the eternal threat that hangs over the contenders: that of a weak participation that screw up all your plans.

Politics is in crisis. This trend was already feared during the presidential elections, even if it was the election most moving of all. Much more in these legislative elections, which are reputed to not excite the crowds and are subject to one of the most specific rules. That of having to collect the votes of at least 12.5% ​​of registered voters to enter the second round.

With one consequence: fewer voters, the higher the score must be to aspire to qualifyand lowering the probability of triangulation, another characteristic of this choice.

Get them to go and vote

Electoral institutions are also not helping to allay concerns as they forecast record highs compared to 2017. So, to address this, parties are adopting different strategies. They bet everything on the club, they play the card of realism, all with the hope, until the end, of not being the force that undergoes this growing phenomenon.

Unsurprisingly, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is the most compelling example. With his 21.95% of the votes collected on April 10, the leader of La France Insumisa made the opposite choice to Marine Le Pen, imposing these legislative elections as the third round of the presidential election.

Aware of partly having a popular electorate, traditionally more inclined to abstention, the candidate took advantage of the slowness of Emmanuel Macron, recently re-elected, to make a courageous proposal to the French: “elect” him prime minister.

An incentive constitutionally incorrect and amenable to confuse everyone. But this has the merit of set a clear goal and also motivating.

“We know, for us it’s always the same problem. Voters who are close to our ideas are potentially the most abstentionists ”, complains Manuel Bompard, MEP from LFI, invested by Nupes in Marseille. “The danger for us is less competition than resignation,” he admits.

“I never see young people at my public meetings. However, they are the ones who vote the most for Nupes, and Mélenchon’s speech does not seem to be enough ”, complains a socialist candidate, who campaigns in an electoral college. An observation that makes the opposing forces happy, who fear that the left will become the first opposition force.

Also for this reason, the Republicans do not try so much to mobilize those who resist the vote as to convince the voters who went to Emmanuel Macron to to return.

“When we see the scores that LR candidates scored in the last regional elections, we see that people voted for us eleven months ago. These voters are still there. They voted for Macron because they didn’t like anything, but we have to bring them back”, Observed Hervé Morin, centrist president of the Normandy region.

The candidate for deputy bets on it in very active campaigns, always putting the local roots of suitors first, which should contrast with the more “techno” style of the Macronists.

A strategy followed by the young Eure-et-Loir candidate Ladislas Vergne, for whom the “default” vote for the presidential elections should not be repeated. In he college of him, he is trying to get back right after the victory of ¡En Marche! five years earlier, the candidate also committed himself to a demobilization of the voters of the Nupes and the National Association.

The polls: draw

If Ensemble (ex-LaREM) and its allies have an advantage over the coalition of left-wing parties, they are not guaranteed an absolute majority at the end of the vote.

According to the Opinion 2022 survey, conducted by the Elabe Institute for BFMTV, the Express, the Ensemble formation (La République en Marche, le MoDem, Horizons et Agir) arrives just before Nupes in voting intentions, in the first round of Sunday’s legislative elections.

The candidates of the ensemble they are therefore nationally accredited with 27% voting intentions, when those supported by Nupes (New Ecological and Social Popular Union which brings together France Insoumise, Europe Écologie Les Verts, Socialist Party and Communist Party) occur in 26.5% in the opinion poll

The two coalitions benefit from a twofold phenomenon: a mobilization of voters for Emmanuel Macron and voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, increasing in recent weeks to go to the polls, and an increase in support for each of these political alliances.

Behind this leading duo, the candidates supported by the national grouping reach 19.5%. Marine Le Pen’s party would suffer a more fragile mobilization of its voters in the 1st round of presidential elections (64% intend to move this Sunday) but would have the support of those who intend to vote.

Candidates supported by LR / UDI are attributed 11% of the expressed voting intentions, while those of Reconquista would get 4.5%. Other political forces are given nationwide at 4.5% or less of the expressed voting intentions.

However, an absolute majority, set at 289 seats, is not insured for the Ensemble roster in this new screening. Faced with the Ensemble, the Nupes would win between 165 and 190 seats and thus could deprive the presidential majority of several seats in the National Assembly.

There follows the alliance between Les Républicains and the UDI, which would obtain between 40 and 60 seats, then the National Rally, which would obtain between 25 and 50 seats. Other political forces could win between 10 and 15 seats.

To date, 74% of voters who intend to vote say they are sure of their choice. On the contrary, 26% of them could change their minds before the elections. Two days before the first round of the legislative elections, the most confident voters of their election are those of Marine Le Pen, Ensemble and Nupesthe three main political parties in France.

Paris, correspondent

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