Europe weighs in on conflicting objectives: peace or punishment

BRUSSELS (AP) – Ukraine has lost ground due to Russia’s brutal advance east and required on Monday a much larger stockpile of sophisticated Western weapons than was promised, or even discussed, underlining theunder increasing pressure on Western leaders so that reconsider his approach to warfare.

The tactics that served the Ukrainians well at the start of the war were not as effective as the fighting moved into the open countryside of the Donbas region to the east, where the Russians rely on their immense advantage in artillery. long range.

Russian forces are ready to take the devastated city from Sievierdonetsk, the easternmost outpost of Ukraine, and are approaching the nearby city of Lysychansk.

with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy planning their first visit to Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, since the start of the war, they and other Western leaders must do so decide whether to duplicate arms of Ukraine or press harder to negotiate with Moscow to end the war. .

Ivan Krastev, who heads the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, calls divisions in Europe a struggle between “party of justicestronger in the east, which wants Russia to be rejected and punished, and the “peace party“, stronger. in the West, which wants the war to end quickly, minimizing short-term human and economic damage.

President Volodymyr Zelensky Ukraine, which calls for more weapons and insists that its country must recover every piece of lost territory, is getting more adamant than ever in the field of justice.

In an interview, on Monday one of Zelensky’s top aides dramatically escalated his country’s urgent demands for more and faster delivery of weapons and most modern equipment of NATO countries.

Ukrainian forces are running out of ammunition for their Soviet-era artillery and suffering heavy losses of soldiers and equipment in the Donbas, and Ukrainian officials say Russian artillery to the east is outnumbering theirs, 10-1.

Mykhailo Podolyak, Zelenskyy’s adviser, said Ukraine needs 300 mobile multiple rocket launching systems, 1,000 howitzers, 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles and 1,000 drones for achieve parity with Russia in the Donbas region, where the fighting is concentrated, numbers that far exceed anything that has ever been publicly discussed in the West.

The US has promised four of the mobile rocket launchers and Britain some more; Washington has sent just over 100 howitzers and a few dozen more nations.

These immense demands may not be realistic or practical (howitzers, for example, are coming faster than Ukrainians can be trained to use them), but Podolyak, Zelensky and others clearly intend to keep the pressure on the West, complaining daily that the current flow of weapons is woefully inadequate.

“If you think we should lose, tell us directly ‘we want you to lose’, then we will understand why you are giving us weapons at this level,” Podolyak said in an interview with the presidential office complex in Kyiv.

Western leaders agree that Ukraine’s ability to fight the Russian invasion will largely depend on how quickly and in what quantities its countries can supply heavy weapons.

They have imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia, provided significant financial and military aid to Ukraine, and publicly insisted that it is up to Ukraine’s democratically elected leaders to decide. how and when to negotiate with Russia.

But they are also worried that a long war will attract NATO countries and even make president Vladimir Putin Russia to escalate what has been a brutal but conventional campaign.

President Emanuele Macron France, in particular, has said twice that it was important not to “humiliate Russia”.

European officials are also concerned about the damage inflation and high energy prices are doing to their economies and the likely domestic political backlash.

And many in Europe are eager to find a way, even if it is a temporary ceasefire, to resume Ukraine’s grain exports as global food prices rise and parts of the world face a threat of famine.

Such speeches arouse outrage in Kiev and in the capitals of Central and Eastern Europe, where Russia is most feared, with officials wondering how busy their friends in the West are in repelling Putin’s aggression.

The leaders of several countries that were once part of the Soviet bloc believe that this war is ongoing more than Ukraineia, and that the Kremlin’s ambitions to restore that sphere of influence and overthrow the European security order must meet with a defeat, not a ceasefire.

Europeans hope the conflict Keep onwith neither side ready or willing to engage in meaningful negotiations until fighting comes to a halt or one side gains a decisive advantage.

The question might be what outcome, if any, you might allow both claim a victory.

The European Union is seriously considering whether to quickly make Ukraine an official candidate for membership despite its history of corruption and misrule, something Zelensky fervently wishes, both to bind his country more closely to the West and to improve the its devastated economy.

What European diplomats don’t know is whether this could make Ukraine more willing to do concessions to end the war.

And it is not clear whether anything other than total victory will satisfy Putin, at any cost, nor is it clear how he would define it.

A trip to kiev by Macron, the chancellorr Olaf Scholz of Germany and Prime Minister Mario Draghi from Italy has not been officially confirmed and specific dates are being kept secret for security reasons, but it will take place before the Group of 7 summit scheduled for early June 26.

A meeting with Zelensky in Kiev would have obvious symbolism, showing the support of these large and wealthy Western European countries for Ukraine’s defense, its territorial integrity and its hopes for a European future.

All three are likely to announce new supplies for Ukraine and discuss various options to help Ukraine export its grain from the blocked port of Odessa.

It is not clear whether there will be talk of a ceasefire or of negotiations.

When questioned, a spokesperson for Macron, informing reporters anonymously, said that France wants Ukraine to come out victorious, but Macron has never uttered those words publicly.

And Scholz, who has been criticized for not supplying more weapons, faster, to Ukraine, says Russia must not win, but he never said Ukraine must win.

Draghi broke with the Italian tradition of closeness to Moscow by strongly supporting Ukraine, including for EU membership, an issue that Macron has claimed to be unrealistic for decades but will be an important issue at the next EU summit. this month.

European officials are debating whether EU countries, in combination with Turkey and countries in need of grain, such as Egypt, can organize some sort of naval escort for ships exporting food.

Ukraine and Russia met for ceasefire talks at the start of the war, but the discussions yielded no results, with each side accusing the other of not taking peace seriously.

Ukrainian officials now say talks with Russia would be earlywhich could cement Russian conquests and, in fact, reward aggression.

Time

Early in the war, particularly in the north, unarmed Ukrainians inflicted punitive losses on Russia using weapons such as shoulder-mounted anti-tank missiles.

With Russian forces in the Donbas now more reluctant to engage in close range combat, that tactic no longer works.

An increasing flow of Western weapons and ammunition, Ukrainians say, could help them reverse the trend east, or at least halt the Russian advance while Russian forces suffer. many victims and are left without their most advanced weapons.

But few believe that this war is nearing its end, or that both sides are close to collapse, even as the economies of Russia and Ukraine continue to suffer.

Russian forces advanced into central Sievierodonetsk, the Ukrainian army said on Monday, as street battles raged in the ruined and largely abandoned city.

Ukrainian officials want to make the capture of the city as costly as possible for the Russians in men and materials, but fear it will soon be surrounded, trapping large numbers of Ukrainian troops.

Although Sieviernodonetsk and Lysychansk fall, completing the Russian takeover of the Luhansk region, Ukraine is still fighting for control of parts of the neighboring Donetsk region and, in counter-offensive, its forces have recaptured the territory around Kharkiv in the north. -east and Kherson in the south. . .

Andrew A. Michta, a German-based American political scientist, argues that the Party for Peace in Europe is missing a historic opportunity to send a direct message to Putin, who has been openly compared to Peter the greatthe first Russian ruler to declare himself emperor.

“The defense of Ukraine is not just about national sovereignty and territorial integrity – historically the two fundamental principles of democratic governance – but, ultimately, expel Russia from Europe, thus ending three centuries of his imperial thrust, “wrote Michta for Politico.

“For the first time in the modern era,” he wrote, “it would force Moscow to accept what it takes, economically and politically, to become a ‘normal’ nation-state.”

The report was provided by Andrew E. Kramer and Valerie Hopkins of Kiev and Thomas Gibbons-Neff of Lysychansk, Ukraine.

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