Elections in Colombia: a head to head between two radical models of change

Two radical promises of change and an uncertain and potentially explosive outcome: this Sunday Colombia elects a president between left-wing leader Gustavo Petro and independent millionaire Rodolfo Hernández, who defeated traditional parties to promise a new political era.

Linked in their intention to vote, Petro (62) and Hernández (77) will dispute the succession of the unpopular Iván Duque in this Sunday’s ballot.

On May 29, the senator and former guerrilla won with 40% of the votes against 28% of the construction magnate, but the measurements anticipate a “final vote”.

“A very narrow result will affect the governability of one of the two,” says Luisa Lozano, political scientist at the University of Sabana.

And unleashes – warns – the discontent “in the streets” that burned in 2019, 2020 and 2021 with bloody and massive protests that already reflected a changing society in the second most unequal country on the continent, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

aggressive campaign

The two candidates got entangled in a dirty and aggressive countryside. The electorate has already expressed its boredom and will now decide whether to put the left in power for the first time or an eccentric without a party that promises to outlaw corruption.

Petro and Hernández embody the popular desire for change and the punishment of the elites who have historically ruled this country with a six-decade-long armed conflict, the largest cocaine production in the world, and a polarized society that has been impoverished by the pandemic.

However, their programs and forms are opposite.

Petro is an economist who is running for the presidency for the third time. He took up arms against the state and signed peace in 1990. He later distinguished himself as an opposition deputy and became mayor of Bogotá (2012-2015), where he gathered opponents for his “authoritarian” style and plan chaotic nationalization of waste collection.

“I will not come to the government to seek personal revenge, nor will I think about confiscating or undermining” private property, he promised earlier. the fears it raises among the sectors powerful an unprecedented leftist government with a former guerrilla at the head of the economy and the armed forces. Petro fears a fraud on his part.

His rival is an engineer who made his fortune as a builder and usurer. He was mayor of Bucaramanga (2016-2019), a city of 600,000 inhabitants where he is very popular for his self-esteem, austerity and for cleaning up public finances. In this campaign he landed as a millionaire ‘outsider’, very active on TikTok, which surprisingly took away the right to the ballot.

“You can vote for the one who will take the money out of your pockets or for me, who will put the money in the pockets of all of you,” he says.

Hernández, who unifies his proposal to cut red tape and fight corruption, is called upon to do so trial for irregularities in a contract in his time as mayor. Unpredictable, he usually portrays her intemperate sayings.

fears

“Both are equally uncertain and risky, because they have proven to be impulsive in making decisions,” notes Germán Prieto, political scientist at the Javeriana University.

As candidates for the vice presidency, they chose two women of African descent. Environmentalist Francia Márquez accompanies Petro and conservative academic Marelen Castillo is Hernández’s duo.

The next president will have to give answers to a country of 50 million inhabitants where poverty reaches 39%, unemployment 11.1% and with an informality of 44.5%.

The violence has also gained ground with several armed groups financed by drug traffickers, hundreds of murdered social leaders, thousands of displaced people and insecure borders. The 2016 peace agreement with the FARC rebels eased without extinguishing the conflict.

The proposals

Faced with multiple challenges, Petro intends to strengthen the state, raise taxes on the rich, reform the pension and health system, and stop oil exploration to promote clean energy. Without guaranteeing majorities, he has an important bench to carry out his plans in Congress.

His opponent, on the other hand, appeals to capitalism and austerity. Hernández received the support of forces that detest Petro, but in principle he would not have had parliamentary support. even faces a bribery trial which could remove him from the presidency while defending himself before the Supreme Court. Until recently unknown to public opinion, Castillo would take office.

Petro represents a “dramatic change, anti-structure, anti-system, anti-traditionalism” but Hernández “took those flags away from him”, says analyst Lozano.

And on the external front, only one certainty: Colombia, arm in arm with Petro, would get on the left train for the first time that occasionally travels through Latin America.

Hernández, on the other hand, is indifferent to foreign policy.

Source: AFP

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