For the first time in Colombia’s presidential elections, traditional right and centre-right parties are not included as finalists. Petro and Hernández are tied (19), according to polls this Sunday.
Colombians going to the polls this Sunday (19/06) have one certainty: Whatever the outcome, the country will begin an unprecedented phase.
This is the first time that the competition will be between a candidate from the left or center left and a candidate who presents himself as someone from outside the political system. The traditional right or centre-right parties, which have ruled Colombia for decades, were defeated in the first round held on 29.05.2018.
This election also has other innovations: the unity of the left and the removal of armed conflict from the priorities of Colombian discussions.
Analysts like Gustavo Petro, ex-guerrilla fighter and senator from the Pacto Histórico coalition, classified by experts as left or centre-left, and construction entrepreneur and former mayor Rodolfo Hernández of the Anti-Corruption League, populist in many Opinion polls and a kind of “Colombian Trump” will be linked.
The possibility of a so-called “vote by vote” count led Colombian media to claim that it would be an “infarction election”.
In both cases, the proposals are considered devastating, reflecting the fatigue of Colombians with the problems they face such as unemployment (around 12%), high inflation (9% per year) and chronic social inequality, according to analysts interviewed by the BBC. News Brazil.
Both Petro and Hernández say they represent changes to the current system and that they hope for a change in the lives of Colombians. In many cases, faced with problems similar to those of other Latin Americans and exacerbated during the war in Ukraine, such as the novel coronavirus pandemic and the rise in food prices.
“This is an election that reflects the feelings of burnout among Colombians regarding the social problems they face. It is the first time since the 1980s that the traditional parties (Liberal and Conservative) are not in the race,” said the political scientist and expert. Luciana Manfredi from ICESI University in Cali and UNAM in Mexico in international business.
He points out that, in the face of a fragmented electorate, the two candidates create prospects for renewal, while at the same time raising doubts about economic stability (in the case of Petro) and democratic stability (in the case of Hernández).
The most skeptical question is how Petro or Hernández will do in practice to meet the accumulated demands of the Colombians.
“In the context of low economic growth, high inflation and unemployment, ‘punishment vote’ (against the traditional political class) and ‘protest vote’ (against social challenges) emerged. Guerrillas and security primarily. But Petro and at the Universidad Javeriana in Bogotá. “Hernández are demagogues because it’s unclear how they’re going to solve problems and not make the situation worse,” said Jorge Restrepo, a professor of economics.
In this election campaign, guerrilla discussion became secondary and practically disappeared, due to the peace agreement signed in 2016 to end the 50-year-long armed conflict between the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). . . .
Rejected for its affiliation with the guerrilla movement, the left now has a higher chance of being elected to Casa de Nariño, the seat of the Colombian presidency.
former mayors
Petro, the former mayor of Bogota, the Colombian capital, and Hernández, the former mayor of Bucaramanga in Santander department (State), are opposites in their ideological profiles.
In the last presidential election, 62-year-old Petro was defeated in the second round, where the traditional parties and his opponents in general united around the name of the current president, Iván Duque.
This year, in the first round, Petro won the most votes with 40.34% of the vote, but failed to pass 50% to be elected.
Their flag is social inclusion and clean energy. His criticism of “Colombia’s dependence on oil” is frequent and one of the reasons his name was dismissed by most of the business community.
In one of his latest speeches on his social media account, Petro said that he will suspend oil exploration in the country and that his goals include the agricultural sector, which takes more protection against imported products and cares for the environment.
Petro has broad support from the left, but one of his biggest challenges is building “credibility” among investors, according to political scientist Alejo Vargas Velázquez of the Colombian National University.
Did the Colombian press mention “petrophobia”? The phobia is the fear of those who reject Petro and the left, especially in the business and economic sectors, and those who chose Hernández to avoid the victory of Bogotá’s former mayor.
Petro and his team often say there is no reason to “fear” and that changes will be made through dialogue and political consensus.
“If I win, I will call for a major national agreement based on dialogue, including center and even (former right-wing president) Álvaro Uribe. We must change the climate of hatred and sectarianism that exists in Colombia today.” He said in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País.
chauvinism
Hernández, 77, showed that he knew very little even about the geography of the country and made playful remarks that were considered sexist.
The ideal is for women to dedicate themselves to the education of their children,” he said. Opponents, analysts and academics made other statements considered “outdated” or “exploitative”, such as that workers should extend the working day to ten hours a day and cut lunch to half an hour.
In the first round, Hernández was a big surprise and won 28.17% of the vote, defeating the candidate representing traditional parties, Federico Gutiérrez.
The rate of abstention, which was normally high in the country, was the lowest in the last 20 years. However, according to official data, only 54% participated in the surveys.
And analysts such as Luciana Manfredi of Icesi and Unam Universities and Victor M. Mijares of Universidad de los Andes point out that Colombian voters today are marked by fragmentation.
As such, the voters of the two presidential candidates are dispersed across the country’s various social strata, they point out, which does not mean that the economically poorest will vote for Petro or that the richest will choose Hernández.
But what can be expected from a possible Petro government or a possible Hernández government?
“Petro has a policy of creating more jobs, creating higher education opportunities for young people and changes in human rights. displaced and the disappearance of social leaders. The fear among entrepreneurs is how these measures will be financed. However, speculation that his policy would be expropriation (companies) is a thing of the past,” he said.
Among those who reject the possible election of the petro, he cites concerns about “economic stability” as he questions Colombia’s international trade deals, along with oil.
“In the neoliberal vision, Colombia is seen with the same stability as Chile. But there is a reality of social inequality and ‘desplazados’ (displaced by conflict),” he said.
Like Chile, Colombia recorded strong protests in 2019 and 2020. And in this campaign, Petro received support from political leaders affiliated with the left or centre-left, including Chilean President Gabriel Boric and former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
‘displaced’
“Desplazados” constitutes a national drama. They are those who have to act within their own country in the face of the regional progress of guerrillas or drug trafficking. Official data show that in a country with a population of just over 50 million, the category will exceed 2 million Colombians.
In the view of the professor at the University of Cali, Petro has “political experience” and knows Colombia, unlike his rival in this election race.
But if Petro creates fear of “economic instability”, Hernández says it creates fear of “institutional and democratic instability.”
“It represents institutional uncertainty and justifies its definition of populist by saying it supports measures that it doesn’t know or really support in depth,” he said.
Such is the case with advocacy for the medical use of marijuana or for young people’s greater access to college. When asked, Hernández replied that he did not know how to put the measures in place, but that he would have qualified people to resolve the situation.
Or when the question is about public funds, the analyst recalls, does he say he will deliver on his promise with “money from corruption”? Fighting corruption is one of its main topics.
Similarities between candidates
Restrepo, an economic analyst at Universidad Javeriana, believes the two presidential candidates have something in common in the economic field, which is the defense of a more “protective” economy against foreign production.
He criticized the economic proposals of the two presidential candidates. “They represent a setback for the country.”
He recalled that Colombia is part of the Pacific Alliance (Colombia, Chile and Mexico) as well as about 25 free trade agreements, including those with the United States, the European Union and Canada.
“I consider both candidates the most radical of all the presidential candidates we have had in this election. We are truly at an unprecedented moment in our recent history,” he said.
– This text was originally published https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-61846652
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source: Noticias
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