Elections in France: An ungovernable country in the next five years?

A convulsive five-year period and a Parliament without majorities, where projects will become a permanent battle. a France ungovernable in the next 5 years or will Macron dissolve the National Assembly next year? These are all questions, on a night as unexpected as it is hysterical, after the ballot of the legislative elections in the Fifth Republic.

After the Yellow Vests crisis, after Covid and its devastating epidemic, with political institutions in crisis, the war in Ukraine and a cost of living that has impoverished the vulnerable and the middle class in France, Ensemble, the party of macronia , was brutally punished in the second round. The final results are still missing, so far they are projections but Macron has been left in a state of siege.

Not only for the indifference of the population towards another record abstention, but for the mobilization of young people up to 35 years of agewhich transformed a non-existent presidential alliance like NUPES into the second left force reborn in the French National Assembly.

Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne spoke to the country after the defeat. You believe that the results of the legislative elections constitute “a risk for our country”.

“This situation constitutes a risk for our country given the challenges we face, both nationally and internationally. But this vote, we must respect it and draw the consequences, ”she said.

However, he called on political forces to “unite” and work to “build an action majority” for our country.

The renewal ”

A 70 year old politician, Jean Luc Mélenchon is the “renewal” left politics of a traditional political class, which has been ignored and punished by the voters. Today Nupes is the second force and does not exclude that his project to be prime minister of coexistence will come true, when the definitive results are known.

In France tonight we are talking about ruling coalition. Republicans rejected the idea. But Jean Luc Coppe, one of the leading Republicans, considers it “essential to contain extremes”.

Nicolas Sarkozy’s former minister Rachida Dati denounced a “bitter failure. Macron’s strategy is a failure. “ For being dead we are very much alive. The whole world is focused on us, “said Rachida Dati, a conservative Republican.

But the president of the Republican party, Christian Jacob, rejected the coalition. “We are in opposition. We will remain in the opposition, “he said, closing the door on them.

Macron, stupid

Remarkably, President Emmanuel Macron and his party remain mute. Nor has Prime Minister Elizabeth Borne delivered her speech so far. An institutional crisis has engulfed the macronist government in these hours. A style of government, the permanent control they exercise. has perished.

Is it that “Jupiter, as the then triumphant president was called, is about to negotiate? “Jupiter has become a minority president,” judged Jordán Bardella of Marine Le Pen’s party.

The first projections provided by the investigative institutes suggest a much more exciting parliamentary life in the next five years than in the previous five years. They represent a National Assembly divided into three large groupswitness to the “tripartition” of political life observed during the presidential elections.

For Macron it is a disappointment. The presidential majority indicated an absolute majority. The bet is lost. And of course from afar. According to the first projections of Ipsos Sopra Steria, the ensemble of the presidential coalition it would only get 230 seats at the Bourbon Palace. A result that comes close to the lowest estimates of the survey institutes revealed in recent days.

In detail, LREM and its allies should be content with 158 seats. The MoDem and Horizon, its allies, would recover 45 and 27 chosen respectively.

The Nupes can only pretend to be the first opposition force in the National Assembly if they advance together into the next legislature. The left coalition comes behind the majority group, with 149 seats.

Of that total, La France Insumisa would become the leading left-wing group with 83 seats, according to the same projections. The ecologists are awarded 27 parliamentarians, against 26 socialists and 13 communists, who then play their group in the hemicycle for the next few hours, while the results drop. The challenge will be whether they stay together.

The real surprise of this second round of the legislative elections was born from the historic advance of the National Grouping by Marine LePen. The simple constitution could have been called a success. The party literally rams the National Assembly with 85 potential deputies.

The former National Front extinct he had never obtained a group outside the proportional vote. When a dose of proportional representation was integrated in 1986, the party managed to form a group of 35 deputies. This just goes to show how much of Marine Le Pen’s total success could be tonight.

Undoubtedly, these elections will mark the next five years. Emmanuel Macron will have to use alliances to hope to implement his policy. In this little game, Republicans can hope to do well if they force the government to make it an essential partner, whether they vote on bills or not. According to initial estimates, Christian Jacob’s party could target a group of about 76 MPs with his UDI and various right-wing allies.

The National Assembly will be varied and for many ungovernable. Certainly he will no longer be “that employee”, which macronia has converted him in his first term. But tonight no one knows who will be prime minister in France.

PB