US officials predict the course of the war in Ukraine

WASHINGTON – When Russia shifted its military campaign to focus on eastern Ukraine this spring, senior officials from the Biden administration said the next four six weeks of fighting would determine the last course of the war.

That time has passed and officials say the picture is becoming clearer:

Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as an impoverished Russian army faces an enemy armed with weapons every time. more sophisticated.

Although Russia has seized territory in the easternmost Luhansk region, its progress has been slow.

Meanwhile, the arrival of the artillery systems from long range US troops and Ukrainians trained in how to use them should help Ukraine in the battles to come, said General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“If they use it correctly, in practice, they will have it very very good on the battlefield, ”Milley told reporters who traveled to the United States with him this month after visiting Europe.

Pentagon officials have said this means that Russia may not be able to make similar gains in neighboring Donetsk, which together with Luhansk makes up the mineral-rich Donbas region.

Ukrainian troops have been fighting Russian-backed separatists in Donbas since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea.

After weeks of bloody battles in the east, with up to 200 Ukrainian soldiers killed every dayaccording to the government’s own estimate, and a similar or greater number of Russian troops, according to Western estimates, Russia has about the same amount of territory in Donetsk that the separatists controlled in February before the invasion.

But US officials say they hope Russia will soon take control of the entire Luhansk region.

A defense official said he expected the twin cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk to fall within days as Russian forces hit the area with heavy artillery and “stupid bombs“, unguided ammunition that causes high losses.

Russian forces reportedly broke through the Ukrainian front line over the weekend in Toshkivka, a city on the outskirts of Sievierdonetsk and Lysychansk.

Taking Toshkivka would bring the Russians closer to the possibility of threatening Ukrainian supply lines to the two cities, the last major Lugansk population centers not to have fallen in Russia.

Until Monday, it was not clear which side Toshkivka was on.

Russian ground troops advanced slowly, in some cases taking weeks to move 1-2 miles, US officials said.

This could indicate a lack of infantry or further caution on the part of Moscow after encountering problems on the line supply in the disastrous first weeks of the war.

Several military analysts claim that Russia is in his maximum effectiveness to the east, as the long-range artillery systems promised to Ukraine by NATO countries are still on the way.

“The price of this battle for us is very high,” he said in a late night speech.

“It’s just terrifying. And we draw the attention of our partners daily to the fact that only one sufficient quantity of modern artillery for Ukraine will guarantee our advantage and, finally, an end to the Russian torture in the Ukrainian Donbas ”.

The president of the United States, Joe Bidenannounced Wednesday an additional $ 1 billion in arms and aid for Ukraine, in a package that includes more long-range artillery, anti-ship missile launchers and howitzers, and for the new US missile system.

Overall, the United States has made a commitment $ 5.6 billion in aid for Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24th.

Zelensky and his collaborators have asked the West to provide more sophisticated weapons than those he has already sent.

They have questioned the commitment of his allies to the Ukrainian cause and insisted that nothing else can stop Russia’s advance, which even according to conservative estimates has caused the death of tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last week urged Western allies to double their military aid to Ukraine, warning that the country “faces a pivotal moment on the battlefield” in its nearly four-month struggle with Russia.

Austin and Milley met with US allies in Brussels to discuss how to help more in Ukraine.

Pentagon officials hope the arrival of more long-range artillery systems will change the battlefield of Donetsk, if not Luhansk.

Frederick B. Hodges, a former senior US Army commander in Europe who now works at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said the war is likely to last for several more months.

But he predicted that Ukrainian forces, supported by Western heavy artillery, it would stop progress of Russia and would begin withdrawing their progress by the end of the summer.

“War is a test of will and the Ukrainians have one higher willr, “said Hodges.

“I see that the logistic situation in Ukraine is improving every week, while the logistic situation in Russia is improving. it will slowly degrade. They have no allies or friends ”.

The Russian military is designed for short, high-intensity campaigns defined by massive use of artillery, military analysts said.

not ready for a sustained employment or the kind of war of attrition underway in eastern Ukraine that requires the exchange of abused ground forces.

“This is a critical time for both sides,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Virginia.

“Probably in the next two months, both forces will be exhausted. Ukraine has a shortage of equipment and ammunition. Russia has already lost much of its fighting strength and her strength is not adequate for sustained ground warfare of this kind. scale and duration“.

Russia will seek to continue gaining territory mile-by-mile and therefore likely strengthen its front lines with mines and other defenses against a Ukrainian counterattack, expected after long-range artillery systems reach the battlefield, analysts said. .

In the past few days, neither force has been able to breach the opponent’s front line.

Although the land may change hands, “neither party has the money to exploit minor gains,” Christopher M. Dougherty, a former Army officer and defense analyst at the Center for a New American, said in a Twitter post. Security.

“The war is now likely to become a resistance test”.

As a result, several military analysts said, both Moscow and Kiev will send reinforcements to the front line.

“The refueling race will be critical for both sides,” wrote Marine Corps Colonel John B. Barranco, Army Colonel Benjamin G. Johnson, and Air Force Lt. Colonel Tyson Wetzel in an Atlantic Council. .

“To replace its losses, the Kremlin may have to resort to sending thousands more recruits,” officials said, adding that Ukraine will have to maintain its logistical lines and advance with ground weapons, including artillery at length. beam and drones. manned.

US analysts and former commanders are offered different predictions about how the war could change.

The weaknesses in the position of the Ukrainian army they begin to show themselves and cause concern.

While some independent analysts have predicted that the Russian advance will stop at Sievierdonetsk, US government experts aren’t so sure.

Some say they believe it The Russian advance could continue and that the Russians may soon make more progress in areas where Ukrainian counterattacks have been successful.

The tactics used by Russia, according to current and former officials, are having a devastating effect in eastern Ukraine, causing so much destruction that Zelensky said the troops are fighting. “dead cities “ where most of the civilians fled.

Other analysts predict a tug-of-war that could drag on for months or even years.

“This is likely to continue, with each part of the trading territory on the sidelines,” Kofman said.

“It will be a dynamic situation. There are unlikely to be significant collapses or large yields. “

Military and intelligence officials said Russia continued to suffer heavy losses and is struggling to recruit soldiers to replenish its ranks.

Morale is low in the Russian military and problems with poorly maintained equipment persist, US officials and analysts say.

The fighting in the Donbas became a artillery duel fatal which is causing heavy casualties on both sides.

Commercial satellite images of craters in eastern Ukraine suggest that Russian artillery shells often explode on the ground near Ukrainian trenches, not in the air above them.

Airburst artillery kills soldiers in trenches with greater efficiency.

Stephen Biddle, a military expert and professor of international relations at Columbia University, said the images suggested that the Russians were using old ammunition which had been poorly maintained.

But inefficient artillery can still be very destructive if used en masse.

“Quantity has a quality of its own,” said Biddle.

“If I were one of the infantry defeated in those trenches, I’m not sure how much better I would feel knowing that Russian artillery could be even more lethal if it were better maintained and used.”

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