New Constitution in Chile: What is “Plan B” if the plebiscite rejects the Convention proposal?

Less than 60 days before the constituent plebiscite, the electoral period for the groups articulated around the “Approval” and “Rejection” of the New Constitution of Chile has begun. Polls agree that if the elections were held this Sunday, rejection would win.

Although in politics that time may seem like an eternity, the truth is that the country is preparing to face a new uncertainty: If you win the rejection, then what?

The right has already renounced the current Constitutioninherited from the military dictatorship and reformed during the governments of the center-left Concertación, a coalition that ruled the country for 20 years.

“The constitution of the 80 is dead”. Thus, clearly and categorically, Senator Javier Macaya, president of the Independent Democratic Union, the party of the ideologue of the current constitution (Jaime Guzmán, senator assassinated in 1991), vigorously raised what became an axiom in the his sector: The only chance for you to win the Rejection is to guarantee it there will still be a new constitution, but “not this”as the slogans of the rejection campaign say.

The diagnosis comes from the fact that over 70% of Chileans say they are trying to “approve the reform” or “refuse to leave”. There are very few who fully agree with the proposal or who continue to defend the current text.

Thus, more than 4 months ago, a group of right-wing deputies, encouraged by the good results of their sector in the legislative elections, turned to groups of center-left deputies, critical of the proposal of the Constituent Assembly, to make a viable “refusal with surname”. That is, to a refusal that does not conclude the constituent process, but prolong it.

In the center left, those who led these negotiations were Christian Democrat senators Matías Walker and Ximena Rincón. The first agreement reached was to lower the quorum for the reform of the current constitution, from 2/3 to 4/7. Thus, they ensure they will be able to agree on a new constitutional itinerary if the rejection wins without the “more official” sectors, such as the Communist Party and the Broad Front.

Reform the current

The right immediately agreed to what it had always opposed in the past: it agreed with its votes to reform the current Constitution and yesterday the Senate commission approved it to send it to court.

Notwithstanding the foregoing, opposition MP Guillermo Ramírez shed some light this morning what’s cooking like “Plan B”to give continuity to the process if the Chileans oppose the text that will be plebiscite: a new plebiscite in which citizens will choose whether the “second attempt” will be led by a new Convention, by a commission of experts or by the national Congress.

Sources of negotiating parties, consulted by Clarione in Santiago, keep it the possibility of a commission of experts has won acclaim in public opinion polls and is what suits him best.

On the other hand, if a new Convention is elected, they will make an offer to change the rules and “Don’t make the mistake again” allow independents to compete on an equal footing with political parties, as they see them as part of the difficulties the organization has had and which have made it lose the trust of the people.

Furthermore, they argue that a new Convention would have the same composition, but fewer seats reserved for indigenous people than the previous one (there were 17) because, in their opinion, they were over-represented.

Lagos’ omission that bothered approval

Yesterday, in a long-awaited letter, former Socialist President Ricardo Lagos refused to express his intention to vote, which was considered a “very embarrassing” silence. for approval guests.

Lagos stressed that “the current constituent process will not end on September 5 after the exit plebiscite, because the two alternatives at stake are far from calling the vast majority of citizens”.

“The current Constitution He can’t get that support either.since the veto power of the support sectors of the absent or subsidiary state was used whenever reform was sought, ”he added.

In this way, the former president is betting on a process that continues in every scenario, coinciding with what the Chileans expressed in the latest polls. That is, if it is approved it is reformed and if it is rejected, it is restarted.

PB