With the possible participation of Finland and Sweden in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), the puzzle of the international scenario could shift pieces in favor of the United States, which will win two key allies in the alliance, while Russia will gain two key allies in the alliance. I feel threatened more than ever before the new scenario.
Although they have signed the accession protocol, effective participation will depend on the evaluation of other members. Once this was done, Finland and Sweden would have a collective defense clause guaranteeing joint military protection. Experts say current developments may have repercussions on future conflicts.
According to Danielle Ayres Pinto, coordinator of the Master’s Program in International Relations at the Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), the main change that Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO can bring is the increase in NATO’s borders with Russia. In other words, the organization will be likely to move closer and closer to Russian territory.
“In this case, it will go not only to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, but also to Scandinavian countries that are not part of the European Union, but are part of NATO,” he says. With this, there will be not only the expansion of borders with Russian territory on the map, but also bigger problems because of it.
(Ukraine and Georgia have previously held talks for possible NATO membership, but currently have no active claims)
According to the expert, with this Russia will clearly feel more threatened. “It’s one thing to have a land border in Poland, it’s another thing to have that border in very important cities like Saint Petersburg, and even in Finland and Sweden, which are a bit close to Moscow,” he adds.
Another point Danielle underlined was that if, for example, Russia attacked Sweden or Finland, other countries would counterattack because they were NATO members. “On the one hand, if the feeling of insecurity and war increases, we may fall short of attacking Russia, a kind of armed peace,” she says.
NATO political victory? Not yet
In the assessment of international relations expert Layla Dawood from Rio de Janeiro State University (UERJ), it should be acknowledged that the reversal of the neutrality policies of Sweden and Finland should be considered as an important historical event.
“This is clearly an effect of the Russian occupation of Ukraine, which has changed public opinion and political authorities in these countries and given clear support for their entry into NATO,” he says.
Second dawood, Although the Western media and many international experts describe this development as a NATO victory, this assessment is premature. For him, especially Finland’s entry into NATO means increasing NATO’s direct border with Russia.
“In this sense, the claim that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would have the opposite effect was widespread. The invasion would increase cohesion among former NATO members and attract new members, rather than establishing Russian dominance in parts of Europe. It would organize, strengthen it,” he said.
New “heavy” allies
For Augusto Teixeira, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of Paraiba (UFPB), NATO gains more weight as Finland has stronger armed forces than the Baltic states. Sweden not only has these strengths, but also has a technology and defense industry base as other positive points.
“For NATO, the entry of these countries reduces the two neutral states that act as a geostrategic ‘buffer’ and actively adds them in favor of the strategic alliance against Russia,” says Teixeira.
According to him, if they enter, the US will gain important strategic-military allies. Finland has more than a thousand kilometers of border with Russia, which increases the area of contact with Russia. On behalf of Sweden, the USA manages to include a wealthy Scandinavian country with a strong technology and industrial base into the alliance.
NATO has 30 countries and was formed to fight against Russian attacks
The US-led NATO was formed in 1949, in the midst of the Cold War, with the aim of uniting Western countries against possible threats from the then Soviet Union. Initially, NATO had 12 member states. He currently has 30 and could win two more if Finland and Sweden join.
NATO members: Albania, Germany, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Denmark, Spain, USA, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, France, Greece, Netherlands, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia North, Montenegro, Norway, Poland, Portugal, United Kingdom, Czech Republic, Romania and Turkey.
source: Noticias
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