A Russian soldier guards an area while foreign journalists visit a Kalmychanks agricultural farm in the Starobilsk district, in the territory that is under the control of the government of the Lugansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine. AP photo.
Trying to explain recent improvements in Russian military operations in Ukraine, some Ukrainian officials said:
“All the Russian fools are dead.”
It’s an indirect compliment, which means the Russians have finally discovered a most effective way to fight this war since their initial incompetent display which has resulted in the deaths of thousands of them.
A local resident talks to a Russian soldier during an exhibition of captured Ukrainian tanks and weapons in Lisichansk (Photo AP-
Precisely because the war in Ukraine seems to have turned into a severe blow war of attrition – with Russia largely backing off and simply bombing and firing missiles on Ukrainian cities to the east, turning them into rubble and then advancing little by little – one might think the worst of this conflict is over
You would be wrong.
I think the war in Ukraine is about to enter a new phase, based on this fact:
many Russian soldiers and generals may have died, but Ukraine’s loyal NATO allies are tired.
This war has already contributed to a huge increase in the prices of natural gas, petrol and food in Europe and, if it drags on into winter, many families in the European Union will have to choose between heating and eating.
Consequently, I believe that the new phase of the war is what I call the “winter strategy” from Vladimir Putin In front of “summer strategy“from NATO.
It is obvious that Putin is ready to go further in Ukraine in the hope that the skyrocketing inflation of food and energy prices in Europe will eventually break the NATO alliance.
Your bet appears to be:
if average temperatures in Europe are lower than normal, and if world average supplies of oil and gas are more limited than normal, and if average prices are higher than normal, and if electricity blackouts due to energy shortages become widespread, it is very likely that European NATO members will begin to put pressure on the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to reach an agreement with Russia, any agreement, to stop the struggle.
So Putin must surely tell his troops and exhausted generals:
“Just take me for Christmas. Winter is our friend.
This is not a crazy strategy.
As reported by Jim Tankersley New York Times In the past week:
White House officials fear that a new round of European sanctions aimed at stemming the flow of Russian oil by the end of the year could drive energy prices up again, hitting already besieged consumers and sinking the United States. United and other economies in strong contraction.
That chain of events could exacerbate what is already serious food crisis that afflicts countries all over the world ”.
Efforts by NATO and the EU to curb Russian oil exports to Europe, the story adds, “could see oil prices rise to $ 200 a barrel or more, resulting in Americans paying $ 7 a barrel.” . 4.5 liters of petrol “.
Gasoline at $ 9 or $ 10 a gallon is no longer rare in Europe, where natural gas prices have risen “about 700%“, Bloomberg reported,” since the beginning of last year, which has brought the continent to the brink of recession. “
Meanwhile, officials from NATO, the United States and Ukraine are surely saying to each other:
“Yes, winter is our enemy. But summer and autumn can be our friends IF we can inflict a actual damage Putin’s weary army now, then, at the very least, will accept a ceasefire“.
This is also not a crazy strategy.
Putin could make progress in eastern Ukraine, but at a high price.
Numerous military analyzes suggest that Russia suffered, at the very least, the death of 15,000 soldiers in less than five months, an impressive number, and probably double the number of injuries.
More than 1,000 Russian tanks and artillery pieces they have become scrap.
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Officials tell me Putin doesn’t have enough troops right now to try to break out of eastern Ukraine and seize the Odessa port to land landlocked Ukraine and strangle its economy.
as reported Neil Mac Farquhar by The Times this weekend, Putin desperately needs more force simply to do so maintain recent momentum in the east and is already carrying out an “invisible mobilization” to bring more men to the front lines “without resorting to politically risky national recruitments”.
To fill the labor shortage, the Kremlin relies on a mix of impoverished ethnic minorities, Ukrainians from separatist territories, mercenaries and militarized units of the National Guard ”and promises large cash incentives for volunteers.
Putin is reluctant to recruit more men because that would suggest that what he told his people was just a “special military operation“In Ukraine it is not only much bigger, but it is also much worse.
NATO clearly hopes that the Ukrainian military will be able to use the new M142 high-mobility artillery missile systems, or HIMARS, which the United States relocated to Kiev, to inflict far more deaths and destruction on Russian forces in Ukraine during summer and autumn.
If so, Putin’s progress may not only stall, but also lose ground, and the Russian president may feel compelled to accept a ceasefire, extensive prisoner exchange, humanitarian aid and better conditions for Ukraine’s food exports, which would help ease inflation and hopefully reduce pressure. of Ukraine’s European allies to reach an agreement with Putin.
no sign that Putin is ready to reach a final peace agreement, but it is possible to push him into this type of ceasefire, which could bring relief to the energy and food markets.
So, for all these reasons, I would say the war in Ukraine is about to kick in most dangerous phase since the Russians invaded it in February:
Putin’s winter strategy meets NATO’s summer strategy.
Unsurprisingly, a Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vereshchuk, called on residents of Russian-controlled territories in the south to evacuate quickly so that the Russians cannot use them as human shields during the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“You have to find a way out, because our armed forces are coming to evacuate,” he said.
“There will be a massive fight.”
Unfortunately, there is no telling what Putin might do if his forces stop again or lose ground.
It could make him more prone to a ceasefire.
It could also force him into a national mobilization to bring more troops into the fight.
There is only one thing I’m sure of:
this war in Ukraine will not end (it will really end) as long as Putin is in power in Moscow.
It is not a call to overthrow it.
It is up to the Russians to decide.
It is simply an observation that this has always been the case Putin’s war.
He personally conceived it, designed it, directed it and justified it.
It is impossible for him to imagine Russia as a great power without Ukraine.
So while it is possible to impose a ceasefire on Putin, I doubt it will be more than temporary.
In short: this war in Ukraine is so far from over that I can’t even see the end of it.
c.2022 The New York Times Company
Thomas L. Friedman
Source: Clarin
