Shortages in arms supply to Ukraine indicate divergent strategies of the countries

BRUSSELS – There is war on the ground in Ukraine and the war for arms procurementon which the first war depends.

In the war of arms there is a considerable disparity amid the avalanche of weapons provided by Great Britain, Poland and the United States and what the rest of Europe offers, which has raised the persistent question of whether some countries are delay supplies to achieve a shorter war and faster negotiations.

Those whispers, coming more forcefully from NATO’s eastern flank countries, those closest to war, did not stop despite a very public visit to Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, in June by some of Europe’s top leaders. France, Germany and Italy– with the aim of reassuring the Ukrainians of their support.

If anything, suspicions have intensified, as the economic pain of war is deeper in the West, the conflict enters a new phase of attrition, and concerns lessen that the fighting will extend into Western Europe, unless, perhaps , Russia does not feel cornered. and humiliated.

Overall, the West provides Ukraine with “enough” weapons.to survive, not enough to take back the territory, “said Ulrich Speck, a German foreign policy analyst.

“The idea seems to be that Russia You shouldn’t win, but you shouldn’t lose either. “

“Which countries they send and how slowly they send it tells us a lot on the war objectives of Western countries, ”he added.

“And now it becomes even more important because Ukraine is more dependent on Western weapons.”

Western European nations blame logistics and reluctance to run out of national reserves for their slow contribution.

Beyond that, there are also broad divisions in European strategic thinking as to whether Russia should be punished, isolated or possibly accommodated.

New data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, which has regularly monitored bilateral contributions of money, arms and aid from all countries to Ukraine, shows that the biggest deficit between arms commitments and deliveries comes from Western European countries.especially Germany.

The figures are current as of July 1 and are expressed in euros, but are more or less the same in dollars as the currencies are at par.

They are not perfect, as some countries, such as France, which proves to have promised and delivered equipment worth only 160 million euros, prefer keep secret most of the details of your deliveries.

They also show that the United States has announced military aid considerably higher (6,370 million euros) of which delivered so far.

But even so, the amount Washington handed over …2.4 billion euros– is more than any other country.

In contrast, Germany, which faced heavy criticism for slow shipments, delivered equipment worth only 290 million euros, promising 620 million euros.

It is even lagging behind Poland, which has pledged and delivered 1.8 billion euros; and certainly from Great Britain, which delivered 1,000 million euros of the 1,120 million promised.

Much of the weapons delivered by Poland and other countries formerly under Soviet occupation it came from Soviet-era stocks.

Western European officials say they are reluctant to run out of their arsenals given the need for self-defense.

Germany, for example, only has about 250 tanks in operation at the moment, compared to the thousands that West Germany had during the Cold War.

But not everyone is convinced.

“To be fair, Kiel’s numbers are pretty shocking,” said Guntram Wolff, economist and new director of the German Council for Foreign Relations.

European support levels are less than 0.2-0.3% in gross domestic product, he said.

“On the one hand, that’s a lot of money, but it’s also a lot rather small given the stakes ”, given Russia’s effort“ to conquer another country in Europe ”.

The numbers underscore that Germany and France, in particular, have a different strategic goal than Washington, believing that a nuclear-armed Russia is too big and too dangerous to be significantly defeated, and that their president, Vladimir Putinhe shouldn’t be cornered.

In a controversial French television documentary that shows behind-the-scenes footage of the president Emanuele Macron and his advisers dealing with the outbreak of war, their shock and bewilderment are clear after Putin told them liedfour days before the invasion, on his own opening to another round of diplomacy.

Macron said twice that “Russia must not be humiliated”, which shocked Ukrainians.

But the footage shows him repeating that thought on a train leaving Kiev, even after he and the leaders of Germany, Italy and Romania have visited the president. Volodymyr Zelensky in mid-June.

At the end of the film, “A President, Europe and War”, Macron says he is concerned about “a growing, more Anglo-Saxon tone, which says we must annihilate Russia, permanently weaken it“.

But this is not Europe’s goal, he said.

“We are here to help Ukraine win, to protect its territory and its independence. We are not here to fight Russia and even less to annihilate it “.

His words angered both Ukrainians and Central Europeans, who want to weaken Russia and humiliate Putin.

For Pierre Vimont, former French ambassador to Washington and former EU senior official, European countries are divided into three approximate fields.

There are those like Great Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries looking for isolate Putin and also to the Russians for having been complicit in the war;

those like Belgium, the Czech Republic and the Netherlands who revisit the idea of ​​containment from the Cold War, talking about restrictions;

and those countries, such as France, Germany, Hungary and Italy, “which are waiting at some point for the opportunity to start a new dialog box with Russia, not immediately, but to be ready “.

The divisions will remain, Vimont said.

“There is not much appetite for a Russian strategy.”

If there is to be one, Washington has to lead it, but it seems as confused as everyone else.

“Nobody has a real idea how to handle this right now,” Speck said.

Unlike in 2014, when Germany organized el Process mink to stop the war then, he said, “there is no one to drive to diplomatic process“.

How the war becomes a long artillery battle with little ground gained or lost, the threat of Russia attacking Western European countries is fading rapidly, said Claudia Major, a defense expert at the German Institute for International Affairs and Security.

it is generating a little complacencyalong with the growing economic impact of sanctions on rising inflation and declining growth.

Comparing the growth and inflation estimates in Europe last fall with those issued on Thursday, the projected growth is down about 4% to just 2.7% this year and 1.5% for 2023.

Inflation forecast is up to 8.3% this year and 4.6% by 2023.

There are concerns about the recession.

When Russia invaded, there was shock and popular fear, and the German turn to more military spending, their “Zeitenwende”, was more about the personal defence rather than helping Ukraine, which shouldn’t have fought so well, Major said.

“Were 100 billion euros for usnot for Ukraine, “he said.

There was more optimism in the second phase, when Ukrainian forces repelled the Russians from Kiev and Western arms shipments switched from anti-tank missiles, then so useful, to tanks and artillery.

But now, he said, there is the “phase of attrition, and we in Western Europe are more optimistic that the war will not arrive in Germany but will remain in Ukraine”.

The countries closest to the battle have emptied their stocks to surrender to Ukraine, he said, “and we in Germany and France, who can do more, areis reluctant to do so“.

For Speck, Germany and France are trying to manage two risks.

First, let Russia win, feel more encouraged and then move on Moldova, Kazakhstan and maybe even the Baltic countries.

So there is a recognition that the West must help in Ukraine, but within certain limits.

Because there is “an equal fear” of escalation, he said, if “Russia feels pushed against a wall, cornered and humiliated.”

Washington shares this fear, but it is stronger in Paris and Berlin, because they are closer.

“So it is the perception of the threat and a calculation on the scenarios that they fear.”

However, as difficult as the domestic situation is now, Western Europe is breaking its dependence on Russian coal, oil and gas and will not back downboth for economic and security reasons.

So Putin’s efforts to divide NATO and the European Union will ultimately fail, said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs.

“The Russian invasion is so extreme and obscene that will keep consensus, “he said,” because we have no choice.

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