Americans are hungry for change, so be prepared for new turmoil

I would like you to consider the possibility that the political changes that have shaken this country over the past six years are nothing compared to the changes that will shake it over the next six years.

I would like you to consider the possibility that we are in some kind of pre-revolutionary periodthe kind of moment that often gives rise to something shocking and new.

Look at the conditions around us:

First, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the way things are going.

Only 13% of voters say the country is on the right track, according to a T.The New York Times / Siena College released this week.

Second, Americans are deeply dissatisfied with the leaders of both sides.

Joe Biden has a 33% job approval rate among registered voters.

Approximately the mid dRepublican voters want to leave Donald Trump behind and find a new presidential candidate by 2024.

Third, the inflation is shooting.

Throughout history, periods of inflation have often been associated with political instability.

As Weimar Germany economist Lionel Robbins wrote, inflation “destroyed the wealth of the strongest elements of German society; and left a moral imbalance and economic, propitious forge for the disasters that followed ”.

Fourth, looming generational relief.

The boomer gerontocracy now in power is doomed to retreat, leaving a void for something new.

Fifth, Americans are breaking away from both political parties.

Many more Americans see themselves as independent than Democrats or Republicans, and independents could become more distinct.

And there is some research that suggests that independents are increasingly not just close members of the two main parties, but also have different beliefs, which place them among the parties.

62% of Americans believe a third party is needed.

Sixth, disgust with the current system is high.

The majority of American voters believe our system of government it does not work and 58% believe our democracy needs major reforms or a complete overhaul.

Nearly half of young adult voters believe that voting does not affect the way government operates.

If these conditions persist, the 2024 presidential primary could be wild.

Sure, traditional candidates like Republican Ron DeSantis or Democrat Gavin Newsom can run.

But if the hunger for change is as strong as it is now, the climate will favor unconventional outsiders, the further away the better.

This kind of strange or unexpected candidates it could trigger a series of oscillations and imbalances that will destabilize existing party systems.

Plus, if ever there was a time for a third Ross Perot-style candidate in the 2024 general election, this is it.

Efforts are underway to pave the way for a third candidate, and in this environment, an outsider, with no ties to the status quo, going against the establishment and with the idea that we have to fundamentally fix the system, well, that person could end up winning the presidency.

These conditions have already shaken the stereotypes with which politics was thought.

We thought of the Democrats as the party of the economically disadvantaged.

But college-educated metropolitan voters continue to flock to it and reshape it more and more every year.

In the Times / Siena registered voter poll, 57% of white college graduates wanted Democrats to control Congress versus 36% who were in favor of Republican control.

For the first time in the history of the poll, Democrats gained a higher share of support among white graduates than among non-white voters.

These white voters are often motivated by social policy issues such as abortion rights and gun regulation.

The Republicans used to be the business party, but now they are emerging as a multiracial party of the working class.

In the Times / Siena poll, Hispanic voters were almost equally divided on whether they preferred Republicans or Democrats over mid-term elections.

It may be an exaggeration how much Hispanics have changed, but it looks like Republicans are indeed becoming a white-brown working class coalition.

These voters care about the economy, the economy and the economy.

In other words, we now have an established progressive party and an anti-establishment conservative party. This is not normal.

If I were a cynical political operator who wanted to build a presidential candidate perfectly suited for this moment, I would start by making this candidate culturally conservative.

I would like the candidate to demonstrate in dress, language and style that he is not part of the polite establishment on the coast.

I would like the candidate to contact middle and working class voters about values ​​and be an outspoken patriot.

So it would make the candidate economically center-left.

I would like to confuse the economic anxieties of working-class Republicans with the economic anxieties of young people.

Bernie Sanders in a big angry populist pack.

University debt remission.

An aggressive housing construction project to lower prices.

At any cost.

So I’d like that candidate to deliver an unbiased message:

everything is broken.

It would therefore have offered a series of institutional reforms to match the global institutional reforms offered by the progressive movement more than a century ago.

I guess I’m looking for some kind of Theodore Roosevelt modern.

But hell, I don’t know.

What’s happening is probably so unpredictable that I don’t even have the categories for it yet.

c.2022 The New York Times Company