Vladimir Putin had warned that Russia “has not yet started serious things” in Ukraine. Almost 150 days after the start of what is still called a “military operation” by Moscow and after an “operational pause” of a few days after major advances in Donbass, Russia wants to continue its invasion.
During an interview granted on Wednesday, the head of Russian diplomacy, Sergei Lavrov, extended his country’s objectives to other territories.
“It is no longer just the Donetsk and Lugansk people’s republics, it is also the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions and a number of other territories and this process continues, constantly,” he detailed. He justified this change by a “different geography” compared to the situation on the ground at the end of March.
Statements that echo those of Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defense Minister, who last week had encouraged his soldiers to intensify attacks and strikes “in all operational sectors” of the war. The latter had also given the necessary instructions to increase military pressure on Ukrainian territory.
How far is Kyiv?
From a military point of view, what do these words mean? “It’s extremely worrying,” said our defense consultant Jérôme Pellistrandi on BFMTV.
“The worrying thing is that we are in a war tone. Lavrov said that it is not worth negotiating, it is a conflict that is in time with military but also economic consequences, with the grain crisis. We are in a tunnel and I don’t see the end of it”, he assures.
What would be the Russian objective then? During the first days of the conflict, the secret ambition of Moscow and Vladimir Putin was to completely control the country and overthrow the power currently in Moscow, that of Volodymyr Zelensky.
After trampling the capital for a long time, the Russian army strategically focused on Donbass but would not have lost sight of this goal, they estimate in the columns of the World Cédric Pietralunga, who covered the conflict at night every day.
“The initial goal was and probably still is for the Kremlin to install a pro-Moscow power in Kyiv. […] The goal is to strangle Ukraine economically, cutting off access to the Black Sea,” he believes, stressing that if Russia is content with the Donbass, it remains at the mercy of a “great counteroffensive aimed at recovering all the conquered territories.
On a smaller scale, Moscow is also likely to want to protect its new territorial gains, including the Kherson region, which is due to officially become Russian after a referendum in the coming days. In fact, around the city, Russia would like to advance further and prevent a Ukrainian counterattack there.
Unattainable goals?
Still, it is not certain that Moscow has the means to match his ambitions. This Thursday at noon, the regional governor of the Kharkiv region announced that two people were killed and 19 others were injured in a Russian shelling with rocket launchers. The return of the great Russian maneuvers, or the desire to prolong the strategy of fear and destruction already used since the beginning of the conflict?
For General Pellistrandi, Lavrov’s words are “a little at odds with the ground.” “We can see that the offensive in Donbass is struggling to progress, it has been 90 days since it started. There have been gains but it is stagnating,” he says.
An opinion shared by Yuriy Sak, advisor to the Ukrainian Defense Minister, who on our antenna this Thursday was surprised by the departure of the Russian diplomat. “This declaration of the aggressor country does not make sense”, he begins, assuring that the Ukrainian army tries to reconquer the lost territories in the East.
“For a long time now, the aggressor has been firing missiles at all Ukrainian cities, regardless of the regions. Five months have passed since the missile terror is over Ukraine, the area is already enlarged, it is not new, ”says the latter, who calls on Westerners to continue delivering weapons to his country.
Open a deal?
These weapons, precisely, are one of the points of tension with Russia. In his speech, Sergei Lavrov, to justify his expansionist ambitions, assured that his country could not leave “to the part of Ukraine that Zelensky controls” weapons “that will directly threaten our territory.”
However, if the latter assured that any negotiations are currently useless and impossible with Ukraine, this new exit could open new diplomatic horizons.
“The feeling we have is that both parties want an important victory over the other to negotiate, but at the moment we are only at war,” concludes General Pellistrandi.
Source: BFM TV
