A small strip of land between Lithuania and Poland is the newest focus of tensions between Russia and NATO countries (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Western military alliance).

This is the Suwalki corridor, a region about 70km long that connects Moscow’s main ally, Belarus, to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave in Europe.

European Union (EU) sanctions in response to the invasion of Ukraine prevent Russia from transporting some of its goods to Kaliningrad using the corridor.

Some analysts warn that the region could be one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first targets if he decides to expand the war in Ukraine into open conflict with NATO.

“The Russian and Belarusian armed forces have conducted intensive joint training in the past to seize this region and fend off NATO forces,” said Stephen Hall, Professor of Politics, International Relations and Russia at the University of Bath (UK). bbc. News Mundo (BBC’s Spanish news service).

“Certainly this is (a) a dangerous scenario. Because it will cut off NATO’s access to the Baltic states and allow Russia to include them.”

‘Achilles’ heel’

The Suwalki corridor is considered NATO’s “Achilles heel” as it can be easily captured by Russia.

An almost uninhabited area mostly made up of swamps, two highways and a single railway line, it is the shortest distance between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

Russia occupied Kaliningrad after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But the heavily militarized outer zone was on the other side of Lithuania and Poland, isolated from Russia and its ally Belarus.

Despite various attempts made throughout the 1990s, Russia was never able to create a zone between Belarus and Kaliningrad that allowed a continued military presence.

But in 2003, while Poland and Lithuania were negotiating accession to the European Union (EU), Russia signed a broader agreement allowing the passage of passengers and goods along the corridor between Lithuania and Poland.

strategic importance

Initially, the vulnerability of the corridor, named after the Polish city of Suwalki, was almost unnoticed. But when the Baltic states Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia joined NATO, the corridor acquired enormous strategic importance.

Kaliningrad found itself surrounded by NATO countries. In turn, the corridor also created a bottleneck for the military alliance – an “Achilles heel” for the organization.

“The corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus is definitely a bottleneck, not only militarily, but also logistically for NATO’s support for the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian forces,” says Professor Kenton White from the University of Reading (UK). ) and co-director of the Ways of War Center institute.

“Because if the Russians had militarily closed this corridor and also imposed a naval blockade on the Baltic, NATO would have been in a very difficult position to provide even basic supplies, food and fuel to the three Baltic states,” says the expert.

The strategic location of the corridor and the possibility of Russian takeover of the region became even more evident after Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014.

And many analysts see this possibility as more and more tangible after Russia invaded Ukraine in February this year.

heavily militarized zone

Admittedly, the area has become important enough for NATO to deploy the US-led Advanced Asset task force in Orzysz, Poland, close to the Lithuanian border.

And since 2014, the military situation in the region has steadily improved with a sharp increase in the concentration of firepower on both sides.

In June, Lithuania’s ban on the passage of steel and other ferrous metals from the Suwalki corridor due to EU sanctions on the invasion of Ukraine increased tensions in the region.

In July, Lithuania lifted the ban, but the initial decision sparked anger in Moscow, threatening to answer the blockade and condemning the sanctions as illegal and unacceptable.

Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian security council, said there would be “a serious negative impact on the Lithuanian people”.

Another Russian annexation?

The Lithuanian blockade rekindled fears that Russia would annex the Suwalki corridor.

But not all experts believe Moscow is willing to do so while its forces are busy invading Ukraine.

“I think that’s very unlikely,” says Professor Stephen Hall. “Russia is deploying most of its (military) capacity in Ukraine, where it hasn’t done a particularly outstanding job.”

“This is a war of attrition. Russia is making some progress, but it will become increasingly difficult to rely on reinforcements and will make the difficult decision to either reinforce the Donbas or try to leave (other cities) open to counterattack in order to drive out the Ukrainians.”

Also, if Russian forces seize the corridor, which is NATO territory, it will result in a sudden confrontation between Russia and the alliance members.

Because any Russian action on the territory of Poland or Lithuania will lead to the application of Article 5, where an attack on a NATO member is considered an attack on all NATO countries.

Hall points out that Russia “cannot afford to escalate a war that will bring NATO closer to its full capacity.”

But will Washington, London, and other alliance members be willing to intervene in a conflict with Russia over an almost unpopulated region?

White of the University of Reading thinks that not all NATO members will be willing to move down the aisle.

“It would be very difficult for the Russians to get through[the corridor]even with Belarusian support because NATO is sending more troops to the region,” says White.

“However, if this happens, some NATO countries may not be ready to confront Russian forces directly regardless of Article 5. I mean countries like Germany, Belgium, maybe Denmark, which may not want to get into such a situation.”

It should be noted that Russia has a strong military presence in Kaliningrad. The outer region of about a million people is home to the Baltic fleet, tens of thousands of soldiers and even nuclear weapons.

As Kenton White recalls, NATO’s Article 5 does not say that members must provide military strength, and there is also “a strong feeling among some NATO members that a military conflict is something to be avoided at all costs”.

Strengthening Finland and Sweden

The fact is, as the University of Reading professor put it, the corridor is now “a very dangerous place for Europeans and certainly a threat to NATO”.

With the expected participation of Sweden and Finland in the Western military alliance, Russia’s tensions with Europe and the United States increased.

The inclusion of the two Scandinavian countries will transform the Baltic Sea into what some analysts call a “Nato lake.”

And this may give Moscow a greater incentive to build a “bridge” between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

However, experts say that with Sweden and Finland becoming NATO members, the Suwalki corridor will no longer be an “Achilles heel” in the military alliance.

“There will be a direct route from Finland to the Baltic states that does not currently exist. So the corridor will no longer be a major threat to NATO’s functioning,” says White.

“Of course we should be concerned about Putin’s long-term intentions towards NATO, and the corridor can be a point of tension. But the involvement of Finland and Sweden will ease fears about the region and tip the scales in NATO’s favor.” “, he adds.

– This text was published at https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-62306996.