Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its sixth month, is unlikely to end any time soon. But its implications are already clear beyond borders. One of the main ones is the effects of economic sanctions on gas supply, especially in Europe.
Internally, Kyiv is grappling with the invasion of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces, which show no signs of retreating from the already occupied territories. Added to this was the uncertainty about what would become of Ukraine’s policy, now led by Volodymyr Zelensky, once the conflict was over.
HE UOL Today (31) he listened to the experts to find answers to the seven questions behind the conflict, which has reached its 158th day.
1-) Will Ukraine be able to take back the lands currently occupied by Russia?
It will not be possible for Kiev to reintegrate these regions, which already make up 20% of the country’s territory. Vitélio Brustolin, a researcher at the Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos at Universidade Federal Fluminense and at Harvard University, states that on the one hand, the Russians have a strategy of deploying military equipment near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and in residential areas.
“For Ukraine to retake these areas, it needs to use artillery inside the cities,” explains Brustolin. “It would be very bad if those who supply arms to Kiev start being used against civilians in their own country.”
On the other hand, he points out Héctor Saint-Pierre, professor at Unesp and founder of the world. Gedes (Defense and International Security Working Group), Kyiv is already short of ammunition and its western partners – namely the European Union and the USA – are starting to worry. “Providing supplies to Ukraine is starting to deplete its own security militarily. [desses países]’ he underlines.
2-) Does Eastern Ukraine continue to support Russia?
Yes, and that’s another challenge imposed on Kiev in reclaiming territories, says Angelo Segrillo, a professor of history at the USP and an expert in Russia. There are many ethnic Russians in the region, many of whom support the government of Vladimir Putin.
“I think the east will go with Russia because Ukraine doesn’t have enough military force to retake these areas,” he explains. “If you’re very lucky, if you have a lot of guns, you can prevent the Russians from going far beyond these already controlled areas.”
3-) How do the Russians deal with sanctions?
On the other side of the border – at least defined prior to the start of the conflict – Russia has been the target of different Western sanctions as well as seeing foreign companies leave. But the country is showing signs of adjusting to the new reality.
“Russia has more or less managed to adapt to conditions with various emergency measures, but it works day by day, except for the lack of some foreign products,” says the USP researcher. “[Os russos] In the short term, they can more or less adapt. Now, these adaptations will burden the economy in the long run,” he adds.
Saint-Pierre emphasizes that most of these foreign services have been replaced by local correspondents, giving signs that Moscow is ready for such a scenario. But the researcher cautions that the effects are much greater in the West.
“I stated at the beginning that time would go in Russia’s favour, and Europe would feel the effects of sanctions that did not affect Moscow as deeply as they thought it would,” he said. “Russia has managed to weaken the dollar in the international market. The West has not only strengthened [durante a guerra]for exhausting himself.”
4-) Is Europe ready to meet the winter with less gas?
The most obvious sign of the risk being imposed on the West is insecurity in gas supplies. Amid the heatwave, the European Union has already declared a 15% reduction target in consumption to try to secure some stock for the winter.
“Them [europeus] They’re going to be very vulnerable,” Segrillo emphasizes. It’s difficult because the pipelines are already built and getting it liquefied suddenly isn’t that easy.”
This context could have implications, particularly for affordable housing in Germany, where Russian gas guarantees about half of demand.
5-) Are there any concrete expectations for Ukraine to join the European Union and NATO?
At present, entry into the western blocks is unlikely to occur in the short term. On the one hand, NATO accession, which has been on the shelf since the conflict in Georgia in 2008, was excluded with the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in Donbass in 2014. This is because the Western military alliance does this. does not accept the integration of countries at war.
It also requires approval from members of the bloc, which includes Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be received by Putin in August. Ankara, for example, has recently created difficulties for the entry of Sweden and Finland (which has a 1,300 km border with Russia).
The situation in the European Union is more complex. People affiliated with the German Foreign Ministry underline the difficulty of the process, which should not take place in the short term. Researcher Brustolin also highlights how long this process has taken, by giving an example of Turkey, which has been waiting for the green light since 2019.
6-) What can be expected from the Ukrainian government in the post-war period?
Brustolin says it’s difficult to answer that question right now. The researcher explains that in addition to the annexation of territories, what Putin sought in the war was “an obedient Ukraine like Belarus” by Aleskandr Lukachenko.
Kyiv once had a pro-Moscow government and was overthrown in 2014. After that, the country included its intention to join the EU and NATO in its constitution, and this annoyed the Kremlin.
What is almost certain at this point is that the political scenario in the country will be complex, Segrillo says. “Maybe it will become more homogeneous, because only ethnic Ukrainians will remain,” the USP professor thinks. “That’s why I think the Ukrainian policy will be even more pro-European and anti-Russian,” contrary to Putin’s intent.
source: Noticias
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