Without peace: a third attempt to impeach President Pedro Castillo takes shape in Peru

Peru’s President Pedro Castillo began his second year in office this week surrounded by opposition to Congress and from the investigations of the Prosecutor’s Office, which create a scenario that, once again, casts many doubts on the fact that he will be able to finish his mandate in 2026.

Castillo’s annual speech, July 28 only increased tensions, According to analysts, amid the strong popular rejection of the Executive and the Legislature, the growth of sectors calling for early political elections and the clamor for the country’s problems to be addressed.

“I do not see that in this legislative year the political forces have diminished in their attempts at a coup d’etat”, anticipated the parliamentarian Betsy Chávez, who, like a good part of the ruling party, he believes what is underway is a coup against Castillo undercover in a vacation (removal) process.

For now, Congressman Edward Málaga has said that he is working on the dismissal: “There is a motion we call ‘vacancy 3.0’, which several banks have worked on. When the document is consolidated, it will be subject to evaluation. present it as a multi-party effort“.

According to Málaga, a centrist lawmaker who combined the vacancy ideas hitherto managed by the far right, the “3.0” project differs from the two failed attempts to remove Castillo in that everything will be very well studied and will not fall in a hurry.

no vote for now

The opposition, who did not get the necessary votes (87 out of 130 deputies) in the two presidential impeachment attempts he accuses the head of state of “permanent moral incapacity” resulting from alleged acts of corruption surrounding him.

The arguments pointing to Castillo’s “communism” were eliminated in the opposition speech by the acts which, in an unprecedented event for a president in office, have become formal investigations by the Prosecutor’s Office, who summoned him to testify for August 4 and 9. The president will be present on both dates, his defense attorney Benji Espinoza told the press.

The alleged facts range from bribes to Castillo in exchange for giving a company to build a bridge and the purchase of biodiesel from another, the obstruction of justice with the concealment of witnesses, the illegal intervention in promotions in the Army and the Police, the plagiarism in the university thesis of the current president.

Former Secretary General of the Presidency Bruno Pacheco – who surrendered to the Prosecutor’s Office after almost 100 days on the run – and two lobbyists they offered to testify against Castillo. They could be joined by fugitive former transport minister Juan Silva, the alleged cornerstone of the plan and rumored to be negotiating his handover.

For some congressmen and lawyers, the prosecution’s advances could generate it Parliament suspends Castillo for a period of time the investigations take place, which in practice would be a plan B, without a qualified majority, as an alternative to the vacancy.

However, this is not shared by other sectors of parliamentarians and specialists, who estimate that among the possible charges against Castillo there is none that can justify the suspension, therefore there would be a risk of illegality.

In fact, so far, the president’s defense has as a strategy, rather than refuting the cases themselves, arguing that fiscal actions and attempts at constitutional impeachment they cannot reach the president while he is in office.

Faced with these doubts, the motion for vacancy apparently continues as the first objective of the opponents. What is unclear is whether they will get the votes now. According to Málaga, right now there are 80 congressmen in favor of that exittherefore only seven would be missing.

The government started with 37 congressmen from the Peru Libre (PL) party, joined by five from the allied group Cambio Democrático, to form a block of 42 that made it very difficult for the remaining 88 to win 87 votes.

Although PL is now split into four pieces – Castillo has also resigned from the party -, it is unclear whether some of those who formed that caucus would support the vacancy. The leader of that Marxist-Leninist collective, Vladimir Cerrón, is increasingly critical, but has not spoken of the green light for dismissal.

Complicated congress

Congress also has two edges to analyze: what to do with Dina Boluarte -member of PL e first in the line of succession- e how to maneuver in the midst of one’s unpopularityWell, according to the polls, more than 80% of Peruvians reject it, which is a few points more than the government rejects.

Regarding the first, it is supported by a sector of the extreme right, led by the deputy Jorge Montoya it is necessary to remove Boluarte even before Castillowith which the head of state would fall to whoever chairs the Congress at the time (the current president, Lady Camones, has promised to resign if such a scenario occurs).

Other members of Congress do not rule out, however, that the Vice-President and the Minister of Inclusion are given the command. There is an ongoing trial against the official because when he was already in government continued in the presidency of a clubwhich is prohibited.

In this scenario, civil society tries to take on some initiatives, the best known of which, promoted by former president Francisco Sagasti, calls for general elections for a new government and a new Congress take over in July 2023.

The proposal, for which signatures are collected, has a problem: to become real, however, it must go through deputies, many of whom want Castillo and Boluarte to leave but without the legislative period being limited.

In the midst of entrapment, which has had a castle on the ropes throughout the year, Peru faces threats: at the cost of living, unemployment, informality of work, insecurity or inequality now it adds a real threat of food crisis which according to analysts is not as frequented as it should.

“It’s like a cachascán (capture) where two rivals insult each other, beat each other, but when it comes to agreeing on the worst for the country, they vote there,” he said in the newspaper. The Republic former Interior Minister Walter Albán, alluding to the fact that the government and Congress have reached agreements but make conservative counter-reforms.

“This is clear, the population has understood it and all the polls indicate it. Castillo no longer has credibility, but the Congress is worse off”, summed up Albán.

Telam agency

PB