According to a study by Yale University, the impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy is much more significant than official data show.
The study’s authors note that “a common story emerges”: the economic sanctions Western countries imposed on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine would have created “disasters for the West,” given the so-called “resistance” or even “prosperity”. Russian economy”.
“This is absolutely wrong,” say experts at the Yale School of Management, denouncing the “chosen statistics” of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to the study, “firm exits and sanctions paralyze the Russian economy in the short and long term.”
Many companies and countries have stopped doing business with Russia or continuing their activities in the country. Russia struggles to acquire parts and raw materials, even some key technologies.
The prospects are bleak: “Despite the illusion of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill and cannot replace lost companies, products and capabilities,” says the study.
Companies leaving the country “represent about 40% of Russian GDP” and resulted in “almost three decades of foreign investment”.
To alleviate these problems, Putin resorts to “unsustainable budgetary and monetary interventions” and the Kremlin’s financial situation is “far more desperate than the government admits,” they add.
“Turning towards China” may be based on the “unrealistically optimistic assumptions” of the Russian President.
“Russia is China’s junior trading partner and most Chinese companies cannot afford to face US sanctions,” the study said.
According to the IMF, according to the latest forecasts released on Tuesday, Russia tends to perform better than previously estimated this year, with a 6.0% GDP contraction in 2022. Earlier, in April, the IMF had predicted an 8.5% contraction in Russia’s gross domestic product.
source: Noticias
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