A country with a hidden nuclear problem, whose economy is dependent on energy products, and is now subject to Western sanctions. In a guessing game, maybe Russia would be the first guess, but Iran also fits this description.
Tehran has been the target of the measures for more than four decades, but from 2012 they intensified and gained even more weight in 2018, when the then-Donald Trump-led US nuclear deal came ashore.
Since then, there has been an American action to block the purchase of Iranian oil. As such, Iran is the target of economic blockades to try to bring it back to the negotiating table for a new deal that is underway, including the relaxation of restrictions.
Moscow has also faced sanctions for more than a decade since the war in Georgia (2008). The measures gained more prominence with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and even more so after the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 this year. Banks were subject to restrictions. Individuals and companies froze their assets. And large foreign companies left the country.
The strategies of Russians and Iranians to face sanctions are not much different. According to Cristina veilProfessor of international relations at Unifesp and on the graduate course of the San Tiago Dantas program, the two countries rely on diversification of foreign partnerships trying to escape from the western core – that is, essentially allied with China in addition to China. regional and from the Middle East.
regional alliances
Regional partnership is important for Iranians to enable financial transactions. “For example, they pay the region’s banks to buy a computer that cannot be bought with dollars,” explains economist Fernando Azevedo, a financial warfare expert.
China, on the other hand, has been relieving Tehran’s economy by buying oil, with an increasing approach since 2012. Azevedo says the sanctions are not that intense.
“In the 1990s, sanctions barred Americans and companies and the US government from working with Iran. In 2006 that changed and Washington began to force third parties, such as Europeans, not to do business in Iran.” Economist. “It gets worse because it’s not another country, albeit powerful, that imposes direct and indirect sanctions.” The situation peaked in 2012, when Tehran tried to approach other partners.
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Seeing that there is a link between Russia and Iran on military and technology issues so that Moscow can access drones and satellites, Pecequilo has been another practice to seek agreements with nations in the same situation. In fact, the presidents of the two countries recently met in Tehran.
However, the explanation for Tehran’s avoidance of Western sanctions is not just in partnerships. “Iran has managed to do a procedure that Russia is now emulating, which is to sell oil informally,” Azevedo explains. “They manage to hide the origin by adopting certain mechanisms, such as turning off the transponders of the ships and saying that they came from another Middle Eastern country.”
In the Russian example, the economist emphasizes, the origin is harder to hide since gas and oil are sold at a much lower price. Still, Azevedo argues that the US could not do to Moscow what it did to Tehran to forbid third parties from negotiating with the country Putin commands.
“Other countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia still trade with the Russians, including in terms of oil, as Moscow sells it so cheaply and does it outside of the Western system. [para enviar pagamentos internacionais]It’s adopting a system that is Swift, that’s being enforced”, which actually eases sanctions.
“Financial Bed”
However, Moscow did not rely solely on this strategic political and economic preparation to diversify partnerships. “Russia had a very important financial cushion. I don’t know if it was preparing for a final conflict that had been brewing for a long time, but it had very high foreign exchange reserves,” explains Professor Héctor Saint-Pierre. unesp and its founder Gedes (Defense and International Security Working Group).
Some of that cushion has been secured by growing gold reserves to support the ruble and the purchase of foreign currencies such as the Chinese yuan and euro.
“This was a central move to strengthen reserves, so that Russia managed to pay off all its commitments,” explains Pecequilo. “And there’s still the perpetual dilemma of whether you cut Russia’s gas consumption completely or somehow get some income. That’s the gist of the whole thing. It was in February and it is now.”
Russian addiction
Contrary to what is seen in Tehran, it is precisely the energy issue that weakens the sanctions imposed on Moscow. There are countries such as Bulgaria, where 85% of the consumption is provided by Russian gas, and Germany, where it is around 50%.
Insecurity creates tensions, with pressure from both companies that need energy to work and consumers suffering from rising prices caused by product scarcity. In this sense, the European Union has already announced its target to reduce consumption by 15% during the summer months to try to guarantee some reserve for the colder months.
“How much money are the peoples of Europe willing to pay for Ukraine’s sacrifice?” asked the Unifesp professor. says. “Europe is doing a lot of propaganda saying it will import more gas from the United States or Nigeria, but that requires another infrastructure that’s very nascent at the moment.”
For this reason, Saint-Pierre underlines that while Russia is working more or less well, the sanctions have a much greater impact on Europe. “Companies that left, some of them already returned or replaced, taken over by a Russian administration,” he explains.
The Unesp professor adds that the measures have prompted Moscow to take measures that ultimately favor it, such as paying for oil in rubles. While this situation appreciated against the dollar, the US currency depreciated in the international market.
Saint-Pierre warns that besides gas, wheat, Europe’s food base, is also having an impact. “It was a miscalculation,” the professor analyzes, adding that the political effects of falling governments in Europe and Joe Biden’s unpopularity in the United States, while adding that Putin indices are preferred domestically. “So the sanctions worked very well for Russia,” he concludes.
Differences
The two countries, of course, occupy different strategic positions in the international context. The territory of Russia is about nine times the territory of Iran (about 1.6 million square kilometers), which means a wider range of available resources. strength nuclear power is already developed.
In addition, Russia, as pointed out, is still a European nation, providing an economic and political situation that affects its relations with the rest of the world. veil. “So having an unstable Russia is more dangerous than having an unstable Iran in the end,” he says.
source: Noticias
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