Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, arrived in Malaysia on Tuesday, second leg of an Asian tour which risks increasing tensions between China and the United States. Indeed, the Democrat-elect has been hesitating for several days about a visit to Taiwan, unconfirmed but increasingly likely, while Beijing has repeatedly warned it was a red line not to cross.

• Will Nancy Pelosi go to Taiwan?

Nancy Pelosi has been vague for almost two weeks about a stopover in Taiwan during her trip to various Asian countries. Various Taiwanese and foreign media confirmed the trip on Monday, citing anonymous sources. the financial times he even wrote that he would meet Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on Wednesday.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives announced on Sunday that she would lead “a congressional delegation to the Indo-Pacific region to reaffirm America’s unwavering commitment to its allies and friends in the region.”

“In Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea and Japan, we will hold high-level meetings to discuss how we can promote our common values ​​and interests, including peace and security, economic growth and trade, the Covid-19 pandemic, the climate crisis, human rights and democratic governance,” he added, without mentioning Taiwan.

The speaker of the House of Representatives refused to answer clearly about their destinations, citing “security problems”. “I am very excited to travel, if ever, to the countries that you will hear from as we go,” said Nancy Pelosi. Neither the White House nor Secretary of State Antony Blinken has confirmed or denied such a trip to Taiwan.

Delegations of American officials frequently travel to Taiwan to express their support, but a visit by Nancy Pelosi – the most important figure in the United States after President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris – would be unprecedented since her predecessor Newt Gingrich in 1997. .

• What is China’s reaction?

Faced with the possibility of this visit, Beijing reacted very badly. “If the speaker of the House of Representatives … goes to Taiwan, China will definitely take firm and forceful countermeasures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” warned a Chinese diplomatic spokesman, Zhao Lijian. The Chinese military “will not sit idly by,” he stressed.

“As we see it, such a visit looks very dangerous and very provocative,” Chinese Ambassador to the United Nations Zhang Jun told a news conference. “If this visit goes ahead, it will also weaken the relationship between China and the United States. I am sure the United States understands that.”

To back up its message, the Chinese military released a martial-sounding video on the Internet on Monday showing soldiers shouting that they are ready for combat, fighters taking off, paratroopers jumping out of a plane or even a barrage of missiles annihilating multiple targets. . “Any enemy that dares to invade us will be buried here,” specifies a very short text that accompanies these images, which does not explicitly mention either Taiwan or Nancy Pelosi.

Beijing stepped up its threats on Tuesday, warning, in the voice of a diplomatic spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, that “the United States will undoubtedly be responsible (for the consequences) and will have to pay the price for its attack on the sovereignty and China’s security.”

This US visit would come at a time of tension between Taiwan and China. Taiwan’s military held its largest annual military exercises last week, which included simulated interceptions of Chinese attacks from the sea. And on Saturday, in response, China held a “live ammunition” military exercise in the Taiwan Strait.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised fears that Beijing could do the same to the island, as China threatens to annex Taiwan, which it sees as part of its territory to be recaptured by force if necessary. Furthermore, Taiwan’s relations with Beijing have been cool since President Tsai Ing-wen came to power in 2016, considering the island to be a sovereign nation and not part of China.

• What is the US position?

For Washington, the streak is delicate: Nancy Pelosi is a central figure in President Joe Biden’s Democratic majority, but appears to be stepping aside in the confrontation with Beijing, at the risk of complicating the task of US diplomats trying not to poison. relations with the Asian giant. On Friday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he hoped the two rival countries could “continue to handle this wisely, so as not to risk conflict” after more than 40 years of managing “differences” that “preserved peace and stability, and that has allowed the people of Taiwan to prosper.

Following the announcement of this potential visit to Taiwan, the US military had judged that a plan to visit Taiwan by the patron saint of US deputies was “not a good idea”, President Joe Biden declared. But the executive did not clearly express his disagreement with this trip.

US President Joe Biden told his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping last Thursday that the US position on Taiwan “had not changed”, according to the White House. He explained that “the United States firmly opposes unilateral efforts to disrupt the state or threaten peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” His Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping urged the United States not to “play with fire” on this issue.

The United States practices a so-called “strategic ambiguity” diplomacy with respect to Taiwan, consisting of recognizing only one Chinese government, that of Beijing, while continuing to provide decisive support to Taipei but refraining from saying whether or not it will defend this territory militarily in the event of of invasion.

Nancy Pelosi “has the right to visit Taiwan,” however, John Kirby, the White House spokesman for strategic issues, insists on Monday. “There is no reason for Beijing to make this visit, which does not deviate from longstanding US doctrine, a form of crisis,” he added.

China “appears to be positioning itself to potentially go a step further in the coming days,” John Kirby continued: this “could include military provocations such as firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait or around Taiwan,” or even “significant air raids” on the air defense identification zone of this island.

• Are these tensions new?

The issues of friction between Beijing and Washington have multiplied over the years: the South China Sea, the treatment of Uyghur Muslims, China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific, the war in Ukraine, and of course, in Taiwan. In fact, tensions between China and the United States have increased in recent years with several US arms sales to Taiwan and the visit to the island of US political leaders who have come to offer their support to the Taiwanese authorities.

Already last October, Beijing had warned the international community against any foreign interference in this territory. “The Taiwan issue is a purely internal matter for China,” the Chinese president had hammered.

On the other hand, Nancy Pelosi is not in her first altercation with the Chinese authorities, she has been openly criticizing the Beijing regime for years. She befriended the Dalai Lama and in 1991, during a visit to Beijing, she shocked her Chinese hosts by unrolling a banner in Tiananmen Square in memory of pro-democracy protesters who had been killed there two years ago.

It remains to be seen if, this time, the tensions exceed the course of the armed attack. Taiwan recorded 969 incursions by Chinese fighter jets into its air defense zone (Adiz) in 2021, according to a database compiled by AFP. This year more than 600 incursions have already been registered.