Because Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is totally imprudent

I have a lot of respect for the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.

But if you go ahead with a visit to Taiwan this week, in versus of the president’s wishes Joe Bidenyou will do something completely reckless, dangerous and irresponsible.

Nothing good will come of it.

Taiwan will no longer be safe or prosperous as a result of this visit purely symbolicAnd a lot of bad things can happen.

These include a Chinese military response which could lead the United States to crash indirect conflictss with a nuclear-armed Russia and a nuclear-armed China at the same time.

And if you believe that our European allies, faced with an existential war with Russia for Ukraine, will join us if there is a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan, caused by this unnecessary visit, you are misunderstanding the world.

Let’s start with the indirect conflict with Russia, and with how Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan now looms.

There are times in international relations where it is necessary keep your eyes on the prize.

Today that award is very clear:

we must ensure that Ukraine is able, at a minimum, to mitigate – and, at most, reverse – the unprovoked invasion of Vladimir Putinwhich, if successful, will represent a direct threat for the stability of the entire European Union.

To help create the greatest chance that Ukraine will reverse Putin’s invasion, Biden and his national security advisor, Jake Sullivanhad a series of very hard meetings with the leaders of China, pleading Beijing does not enter the Ukrainian conflict by providing military assistance to Russia, and particularly now, when Putin’s arsenal was decreased for five months of grueling warfare.

Biden, according to a senior US official, personally told the president Xi Jinping that if China entered the war in Ukraine alongside Russia, Beijing would risk access to its two most important export markets: the United States and the European Union.

China is one of the best manufacturing countries in the world drone, which are exactly what Putin’s troops need most right now.

With all indications, US officials tell me, China has responded not to provide military aid to Putin, at a time when the United States and NATO provided Ukraine with intelligence support and a significant amount of advanced weapons that caused severe damage to the Ukrainian military. Russia, A apparent ally from China.

That said, why should the House Speaker choose to visit Taiwan and deliberately provoke China now by becoming the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan since then? Newt Gingrich in 1997, when China was much weaker economically and militarily?

The timing couldn’t be worse.

Dear reader: The war in Ukraine is not over.

And privately, US officials are far more concerned about the Ukrainian leadership than it seems.

There’s a deep mistrust between the White House and the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskymuch more than reported.

And there is fun business in Kiev.

On July 17, Zelensky fired his country’s attorney general and the head of his national intelligence agency, the most significant jolt in his government since the Russian invasion in February.

It would be the equivalent of Biden firing Merrick Garland and Bill Burns on the same day.

But I haven’t seen it yet no relationship to convincingly explain what it was.

It’s like you don’t want to look too close under the hood in kyiv for fear of corruption or antics we might see, when we invested so much there.

Read more about the dangers of that other day.

Meanwhile, senior US officials still believe Putin is quite ready to consider using a small atomic bomb against Ukraine if he sees that his army is facing certain defeat.

In short, this war in Ukraine is SO inconclusive, SO unstable, SO full of dangerous surprises on the way.

However, in the midst of all this, we risk a conflict with China for Taiwan, caused by a visit arbitrary and frivolous of the President of the Chamber?

is Geopolitics 101 that you don’t woo one war on two fronts with the other two superpowers simultaneously.

Let us now turn to the possibility of a indirect conflict with China and how Pelosi’s visit could trigger it.

According to Chinese news reports, Xi told Biden in his phone call last week, hinting at US involvement in Taiwan affairs, such as a possible visit by Pelosi, “Whoever plays with fire will burn himself”.

Biden’s national security team made it clear to Pelosi, a longtime human rights defender in China, why he shouldn’t go to Taiwan now.

But the president didn’t call her directly to ask her not to go, apparently worried she might looks soft with China, leaving the opportunity for the Republicans to attack him before the mid-term elections.

It is a measure of ours political dysfunction that a Democratic president cannot dissuade a Democratic Speaker of the House from engaging in a diplomatic maneuver that his entire national security team, from the director of the CIA to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, considered reckless.

Indeed, there is an argument that Biden should simply call attention to Xi’s bluff, bring Pelosi back to the center, and tell Xi that if he threatens Taiwan in any way, it is China that will “burn”.

It might work. You may even feel good for a day.

it might as well start on Third World war.

In my opinion Taiwan should have asked Pelosi not to come at this time.

I admire Taiwan very much, the economy and democracy it has built since the end of World War II.

I have visited Taiwan numerous times over the past 30 years and have personally witnessed how much Taiwan has changed during that time.

But there is one thing that hasn’t changed for Taiwan: Its geography!

Taiwan remains a small island nationnow with 23 million people, about 160 kilometers off the coast of a giant mainland China, with 1.4 billion peoplewho claim Taiwan as part of the Chinese motherland.

Countries that forget their geography they get into trouble.

Don’t confuse this with pacifism on my part.

I think it is in the vital national interest of the United States to defend Taiwan’s democracy, in case of invasion Unprovoked Chinese.

But if we want to come into conflict with Beijing, at least that is our time and our problems.

Our problems are China’s increasingly aggressive behavior on a wide range of fronts, from computer intrusions intellectual property theft and military maneuvers in the South China Sea.

That said, this is not the time to dig into China, especially considering how sensitive it is for Chinese politics.

Xi is going to make sure a indefinite extension of his role as Chinese leader at the 20th Communist Party Congress, scheduled for this fall.

The Communist Party of China has always made it clear that the reunification of Taiwan and mainland China is its “historical taskAnd, since coming to power in 2012, Xi has constantly and recklessly pointed out your commitment with that task with aggressive military exercises in Taiwan.

By visiting, Pelosi will actually give Xi a chance divert attention of their own failures:

a mole strike strategy to try and stop the spread of COVID-19 blocking major cities in China, a huge one real estate bubble which is now deflating and threatening a banking crisis and a huge mountain of public debt as a result of Xi’s unbridled support for state-owned industries.

I seriously doubt that the current Taiwanese leadership, in their hearts, wants this visit from Pelosi now.

Anyone who has followed the prudent behavior of the Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, since its election in 2016, you must be impressed by its constant efforts to defend Taiwan’s independence without giving China an easy excuse. for military action against Taiwan.

Unfortunately, I fear that the growing consensus in Xi’s China is that the Taiwan issue can only be resolved militarily, but China wants to. your pace.

Our focus should be speak China puts such a military effort on OUR calendar, which is forever.

But the best way to do this is to arm Taiwan into what military analysts call a “porcupine”, a country fraught with so many missiles that China would never want to get its hands on them, saying and doing as little as possible to provoke China. think you MUST get your hands on her now.

Pursue something other than that balanced approach it would be a terrible mistake, with far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.

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