The Climate Endgame project requires studies on the extreme conditions caused by climate change.
Current climate change, driven by human activities such as greenhouse gas emissions, is a reality demonstrated by numerous scientific data and studies. But the evolution of this global warming process continues to depend on many variables and, to determine it, various scenarios are used (some more real and others more extreme than the increase in temperatures expected for the coming decades).
A group of 11 researchers from the UK, China, USA, Germany, the Netherlands and Australia proposed this week in an article published in the prestigious journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) that the international scientific community – and for extension, the whole of humanity should investigate the possibility of climate change reaching a truly catastrophic point, both for the increase in temperature and for its environmental, social and economic impact.
The title of the scientific article now published coincides with the name that this group attributes to its research project: End of the climate games.
The translation of this expression (literally, one possibility is the end of the game of time) can raise doubts, so it seems more correct to go directly to the definition of the authors. “Our research program with the Climate Endgame proposal aims to direct the exploration of the worst risks associated with climate change anthropogenic. To present it, we summarize the existing evidence on the likelihood of extreme climate change, describe why it is critical to explore worst-case scenarios, and suggest catastrophic reasons for concern “, points out in the abstract of their article this team whose first signatory and spokesperson is Luke Kemp , the Center for the Study of Existential Risk and Darwin College, University of Cambridge (UK).
This same English public university was in charge of disseminating a concise and easy-to-understand version of the proposal. “Global warming could end up being ‘catastrophic’ for humanity if the temperature rises are worse than many current models predict or if the warming causes a cascade of events that have not yet been sufficiently evaluated, or both, “underlines this summary prepared by the University of Cambridge communications service. “The world must start preparing for the possibility of a ‘climate endgame’.
The authors of the scientific paper propose a research agenda to address worst-case scenarios. These include results ranging from a loss of 10% of the world population due to eventual human extinctionindicates without hesitation the official summary.
The researchers ask, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to dedicate a future report to catastrophic climate change to stimulate research and inform the public.
“There are many reasons to believe that climate change can become catastrophic, even with modest levels of warming, “says Luke Kemp, in statements released by his university.
Past climate changes have impacted various historical mass extinction events. They helped overthrow empires and shaped history, the authors recall.
“Paths to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather events.”
“Side effects, such as financial crises, conflicts and new epidemics, could trigger other calamities and prevent recovery from possible disasters such as nuclear war, ”indicates the first signatory of the new study.
“There is a catastrophic risk, but we need a more detailed picture.”
Kemp and his colleagues argue that the consequences of a heating of 3 ° C or higher has so far been underestimated.
The team’s modeling shows areas of extreme heat (an average annual temperature of over 29 ° C), which could cover two billion people by 2070. These areas are not only some of the most densely populated, but also some of the most politically fragile.
“Average annual temperatures of 29 degrees currently affect about 30 million people in the Sahara and the Gulf coast,” said co-author Chi Xu of the University of Nanjing.
“By 2070, these temperatures and the social and political consequences will directly affect two nuclear powers and seven maximum containment laboratories. which host the most dangerous pathogens. There is serious potential for disastrous side effects, “she said.
Source: The avant-garde
Source: Clarin
