China’s exercises help it practice an invasion

One day later Nancy Pelosi, president of the United States House of Representatives, he visited Taiwan and celebrated it as a bastion of democracy, launched by China three days of military exercises around the island, during which his forces can press harder than ever, improvement your abilities to block it.

A flurry of Chinese propaganda claimed that the exercises, which began Thursday at noon, would help punishment for Pelosi’s visit and as a deterrent against opponents of Beijing’s claims on the autonomous island.

But beyond that, the six exercise zones that the People’s Liberation Army has demarcated in the seas off Taiwan, one less than 10 miles from its southern coast, could give Chinese forces a valuable practicein case one day he is ordered to surround and attack the island.

“Previously, Chinese Communists conducted remote military exercises, now they have come close,” Chang Yan-ting, a retired Taiwanese air force deputy commander, said in an interview.

“Chinese military exercises around Taiwan will put our national armed forces in a very dangerous position,” he said.

“I am already at our door“.

Chinese chief, Xi Jinping, he said he hopes to ensure eventual unification with Taiwan through peaceful steps.

But like its predecessors, it hasn’t ruled out force and China’s military buildup has reached a point where some commanders and military analysts think an invasion is a scenario. increasingly plausiblealthough it is still very risky.

The exercises could help Chinese forces test their readiness for it.

“They will definitely use it as an excuse to do something to help them prepare for a possible invasion,” said Oriana Skylar Mastro, a researcher at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies who studies the Chinese military and its potential. to attack Taiwan.

“It’s not just about the messages,” he said.

“Under the pretext of reporting, they are basically trying to prove theirs capacity to perform complex maneuvers necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan ”.

It is unclear how close Chinese forces will be to Taiwan during the exercises.

In a possible sign of what to expect, the Chinese Liberation Army newspaper said Thursday that Eastern Theater Command was conducting its own practice operations which included the Navy, Air Force and Missile Force, and that it focused on “closure and joint control”. attacks against sea and land and operations of aerial dominance.

Kinmen Island, a Taiwan-controlled island just over six miles off the Chinese coast, reported Wednesday evening, flying objects of unknown origin, probably drones, flew over the area.

Taiwan’s National Defense Ministry said its website has been paralyzed by cyber attacks of “denial of service” Wednesday night.

China is trying to bolster its influence on Taiwan by improving deterrence after Pelosi’s visit, who praised the island’s population for standing firm against Beijing, several Chinese analysts said.

“The tendency of external forces to exploit Taiwan to contain China has become increasingly clear,” said Wu Yongping, a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing who studies Taiwan, answering questions in writing.

“The Chinese government has adopted some military operationsIt is unprecedented in response to this. “

One of the People’s Liberation Army designated exercise zones is located off the east coast of Taiwan, at the furthest point from mainland China.

When China conducted intimidating military drills in front of Taiwan during a geopolitical crisis 25 years agoThe People’s Liberation Army, or EPL, hasn’t gone that far.

“It’s an intentional message intended to highlight the PLA’s greater ability to project power farther from mainland China, and it’s a visible sign that China could surround the island,” said Brian Hart, a member of the China Energy Project at the Center for Strategic Affairs and International Studies.

“Also it will complicate the traffic to and around the island on all sides.

Global Times, a boastfully nationalist Chinese newspaper, raised the possibility of missiles being launched from the mainland in the eastern area, forming a arch over Taiwan.

“If the Taiwanese military responds, the Liberation Army is fully capable of it catch the turtle in the jara Chinese commentator, Zhang Xuefeng, told the newspaper, using a Chinese saying to catch prey with ease.

But Hart said China is unlikely to launch missiles at Taiwan.

“It would be extremely escalating,” he said.

“Most likely they would launch missiles launched from ships or planes into that area without flying missiles over the island.”

After decades of tensions and various military crises with China, many in Taiwan have grown accustomed to the threats.

But even if China won’t take the most potentially inflammatory steps this time around, experts and island officials fear that the operations could trigger an accident (a collision at sea or in the air, or a failed missile) that inflame tensions to the maximum, creating a full-fledged crisis.

A monitoring service run by the US Naval Institute reported Monday that an attack group led by an aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan was in the Philippine Sea, some distance east of Taiwan, and that the USS Tripoli, there was also an amphibious assault ship in that area.

“The three sides – the United States, China and Taiwan – should have a tacit understanding to avoid direct military confrontations,” said Chieh Chung, a security analyst at the National Policy Foundation in Taipei.

But, he added, “if an accident occurs, it can heat up quickly, triggering a military confrontation beyond the expectations of both sides.”

John Liu contributed to the report.

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