The death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike in the Afghan capital, Kabul, has now sparked curiosity as to who could take command of the terrorist organization.
Egyptian-born Saif al-Adl is the most likely candidate. He is the only surviving member of the group of five al-Qaeda veterans who have been called al-Zawahiri’s aide in the past, and is now touted as their most likely successor.
But there may be a problem.
Al-Adl is believed to be currently living under restrictions in Iran, a country that al-Qaeda sees as a staunch enemy.
jihadist veteran
A founding member of al-Qaeda and a trusted lieutenant to Osama Bin Laden, al-Adl is a mysterious figure and a respected veteran of the jihadist cause.
One person still of interest to US authorities: He is on the FBI’s “Most Wanted Terrorists List” and is rewarded with $10 million by the agency for information on his whereabouts.
He is accused of taking part in the simultaneous bombings of the US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in August 1998, which killed more than 220 people.
But he also opposed the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington.
In a document published in February 2021, researchers at the U.S. Military Academy, known as West Point, claimed that al-Adl and other senior al-Qaeda figures feared – and correctly predicted – that a large-scale attack on American soil would trigger an attack on American soil. . This is a powerful response that could include the invasion of Afghanistan, which until now was a safe haven for al-Qaeda agents.
Al-Adl has written extensively on a wide variety of topics in the past, including “security and intelligence”, war and revolutions.
Image: Getty Images
The first years
Less is known about al-Adl’s life before al-Qaeda. According to the FBI, the next potential leader of the organization was born on April 11, 1963 or 1960.
Despite its status within al-Qaeda, it has largely kept a low profile and barely appears in the group’s advertisements.
There are also doubts about his true identity; His name is Sayf al-Adl (Sword of Justice in Arabic) is probably a nickname.
West Point researchers say al-Adl is often misidentified as Mohammed Ibrahim Makkawi, a former colonel in the Egyptian special forces.
It is known that he fought alongside bin Laden against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan at a time when Al Qaeda was established in the 1980s.
Al-Adl later moved to Somalia, where he helped train militants fighting against the US intervention in the Somali Civil War. This campaign became famous for the incident in which two American MH-60 Black Hawk helicopters were shot down by rockets over Mogadishu – an episode that was later the subject of the 2001 Hollywood blockbuster “Surrounded.”
One of the rockets is believed to have been fired by a Tunisian member of al-Adl’s fleet.
Al-Adl returned to Afghanistan in the mid-1990s as the Taliban consolidated their grip on the country. He left again shortly after the US invasion in 2001 and led a group of al-Qaeda agents in Iran.
He is believed to have been arrested by Iranian authorities in 2003 and was reportedly released in a prisoner exchange 12 years later, along with several other al-Qaeda members.
Despite his prolonged imprisonment, al-Adl remained an influential figure within al-Qaeda and helped cement Zawahiri’s position as leader after Bin Laden was killed by US special forces in Pakistan in 2011.
But his own coronation may be more complicated: US terrorism expert Colin P. Clarke claims al-Adl is still living under “semi-house arrest” in Iran.
This can jeopardize your ascent.
Not only is it almost unthinkable for him to effectively lead a global jihadist group while living under restrictions in a Shiite state, but there are also concerns about his safety.
Another high-profile Al-Qaeda member, Abu Mohammed al-Masri, was killed in an alleged covert operation by Israeli commandos in Tehran in 2020.
If not al-Adl, then who?
The list of other candidates is short, as many senior al-Qaeda figures have faced the fate of Zawahiri over the years.
It is possible that al-Qaeda is seeking a leader among the heads of its regional affiliates in Somalia (al-Shabaab), Yemen (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula), or Mali (the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims or JNIM).
While such a solution is unprecedented, it may not come as a big surprise to an increasingly decentralized organization under Zawahiri.
In 2013, it was widely reported that Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, was appointed deputy to Zawahiri. This may indicate that regional leaders are in contention for central leadership roles – but this is not the case for al-Wuhayshi, who was killed in a US drone strike in 2015.
Whoever is chosen to replace Zawahiri will face the same challenge of staying low profile for fear of being targeted by the US.
source: Noticias
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