This is part of yesterday’s online version of the Thais Oyama newsletter (8). In the full newsletter, for subscribers only, the columnist describes his profile that could define the outcome of Brazil’s Presidential election. The text also includes the “Closed” section, in which an influential party chairman and center representative reveal their predictions about the composition and mood of Congress in an eventual Lula government. Would you like to receive the full package with the main column and more information in your email next week? Sign up here.
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A female voter who will decide this year’s presidential election, with a family income of about R$1,800 per month, lives on the outskirts of a large city in the Southeast, says she is Catholic or Evangelical, and works outside the home.
It draws its knowledge from television and the Internet, pays little attention to issues such as corruption and politics, and prioritizes improving the economy and services – especially health, safety and education – for the next government.
He voted for PT in the past and for Jair Bolsonaro in 2018, but was disappointed with the president mainly due to the rising cost of living.
You’re still unsure of your game in these elections.
According to Bruno Soller, a political scientist and research associate at Real Time Big Data, this is the profile that will balance the election, according to the terminology of Abep, the Brazilian Association of Research Companies, of voters who are members of social class C2. October leans towards former President Lula (PT) or President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
brazil swing vote
“C2 is our quick vote,” says the researcher, referring to the American expression that is not party-affiliated, whose votes are difficult to predict due to its volatility, and which describes the electorate or constituency of voters in the United States. was key to electing Donald Trump in 2016.
C2 would have been Brazil’s shaky vote, because, according to Soller, it was the only social strata in the country whose electoral behavior had changed since 2006.
From that year, with the consolidation of revenue distribution programs by the PT government, the acronym for former president Lula won the vote of the poorest Brazilians who remained loyal to him despite monthly scandals erupting. allowance.
In the upper-middle class (which includes classes B and C1 by ABEP’s criteria), successive corruption incidents involving the myth ignited anti-petismo, and in states with the highest concentration of these social strata, secession “anti-Lula” candidates always prevail – 2006 Geraldo Alckmin in ; José Serra in 2010; and Aécio Neves, all toucans in 2014.
71% of undecided voters still haven’t identified their candidate
It so happens that in 2018 Jair Bolsonaro replaced the toucans and captured not only the anti-PT strongholds, but also the pockets of voters who had voted for the PT in the past, scattered throughout the metropolitan areas of the country’s major cities. .
“These voters of the C2 class, who once voted for Lula and Dilma, chose Bolsonaro in 2018 for his promises of fulfillment, especially in the field of public safety”
Bruno Soller, political scientist and research fellow at Real Time Big Data
According to the researcher, the former captain, for example, “appeared as a hope for those who resided in the slums of big cities and who, on the way to work, saw the drug dealer selling drugs at the door of his house and was frightened. His son would use it.”
From 2014 to 2018, the PT lost 6.5 million voters in the Southeast region, particularly in municipalities with a large C2 class presence.
C2 makes up 27% of Brazil’s population, only less than class D.
This is a huge condition and is still undecided.
Overall, the scenario is reversed in the Brazilian shaky vote if polls show that more than 70% of Brazilians have pre-selected their candidates: 71% of C2 members say they are still unsure of their vote, says Soller. “Wherever this class goes, the election will go,” says the researcher.
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source: Noticias
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