While the Russians have steadily strengthened their hold on Donbass since the Ukraine invasion, the latter now seeks to extend the fight to a new theater of operations: Crimea. As a way to put iron on a wound still open since the gradual annexation of the peninsula by Russia, between March 2014 and July 2015.
The integration of the region in the Russian Federation received the blank check of a referendum organized on March 16, 2014, establishing the rate of votes in favor of this annex at 96.77%. On the other hand, it was condemned by the international community with the exception of eleven countries, including Syria and Belarus, for example.
Above all, Ukraine has never admitted it and now seeks to regain control. In the space of a week, his army has only twice attacked Russian bases located in the heart of this disputed province. Actions that return the very concrete echo of the official discourse of the Ukrainian authorities, who have made the return of Crimea to the national territory a priority.
Operations “like the work of a goldsmith”
On Tuesday morning, ammunition from a Russian depot in Djankoi exploded. Crimea’s Kremlin-appointed governor spoke of two injured civilians, Russia continues to mourn the loss of a high-voltage line, a damaged power plant and damage along a local railway line.
A week ago, on August 9, another Russian ammunition depot was blown up in the region, near the Saki base. The event also resulted in a high number of human victims -one dead and 14 injured-, as well as considerable material damage. In fact, Euronews has indicated that the matter had cost eight planes to Russian aviation.
If the origins of the Saki explosions remain nebulous -Moscow denies having suffered an attack-, the paternity of the explosion that occurred on Tuesday at the Djankoï warehouse puts the belligerents in agreement this time. The Russian army denounced an “act of sabotage” in a press release published in the process, while Andrii Iermak greeted on Telegram, in a post broadcast by AFP, a “goldsmith-like ‘demilitarization’ operation by the forces Ukrainian Armed Forces”, which he promised would continue “until the complete liberation of the Ukrainian territories”.
However, the consensus is surprising… at least among specialists. Because, as Le Monde points out here, the Ukrainian troops do not, in principle, have missiles with a range of more than 80 km: quite insufficient insofar as the two sites are more than 200 kilometers from the front line .
However, according to the evening paper, military experts believe this should be seen as the action of Ukrainian-made missiles doped by the allies of the attacked nation, in particular thanks to the addition of a guidance system. ad hoc.
Determine Russian aviation, move the fleet away from ports: Ukraine’s goals
Apart from the symbolic meaning of these operations, these explosions carried out on Crimean territory are of immediate military interest to the Ukrainians. On the one hand, it is from these bases that Russia bombs its victim and, furthermore, as noted with the World Yohann Michel, associate researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies where he works on defense issues, “in a conflict that consumes a lot of material, as is the case in Ukraine, even if it is just to slow down rail convoys it can have an impact. “
The specialist adds: “It may also force the Russians to push their ammunition depots a little further from the front and thus stretch their supply lines.”
On the other hand, it is about encouraging the Russian fleet to move away from its base port of Sevastopol, and therefore to break the food blockade that it frames. The elimination of these ships and submarines would also have an additional virtue in the eyes of Ukraine: to reduce the harmful power of its missiles.
BFMTV’s editorialist for international affairs, Anthony Bellanger, in any case sees in these Ukrainian initiatives “a turning point” in the conflict.
“Crimea is the spoiled baby of the Russians and Vladimir Putin. Writing Crimea is something that the Ukrainians had not done since the beginning of the war and, moreover, Vladimir Putin had turned it into a red line”, he highlighted on our set on Tuesday. “And we realize not only that the Ukrainians are capable of hitting Ukraine, in depth, but also of mobilizing supporters there. In any case, it is a very strong humiliation for Russia.”
Tourism, a new target of the conflict
This campaign also tackles a more unexpected side. Mikhaïlo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, tweeted: “Crimea in a normal country is the Black Sea, mountains, recreation and tourism. But Russian-occupied Crimea, it’s explosions of ammunition depots and a high risk of death to invaders and thieves.”
Sunny region, the Crimean peninsula is, at least since Soviet times, during which the Party and the State sent their cadres there, a popular tourist destination. Therefore, installing it in the war is also aimed at demoralizing Russian civilian opinion.
The scheme also appears to be working, as evidenced by images of terrified tourists in Saki after last week’s explosions or traffic jams on the way back to Russia.
“Impressive image! The flight of Russian tourists to the beaches of Crimea.. The war in Ukraine comes without warning for these vacationers after the attack on the Novofedorivka airbase in Saki,” our journalist Ulysse Gosset captioned on Twitter.
The Russian political class did not make a mistake there and tried to put out this fire. “Tourists are not in danger. We ask them to remain calm,” Alexei Tcherniak, a local Russian MP, was quoted here by I24 News as saying.
“The war began with Crimea and must end with its liberation”
Finally, Crimea is emerging as a major political target for Kyiv. For Volodymyr Zelensky, Crimea is the alpha and omega of this war, its true origin -more than seven years before the Russian invasion on February 24-, and it pretends to be its conclusion.
“The world is beginning to understand that it was wrong in 2014 to decide not to respond with all its might to Russia’s first aggressive actions,” the Ukrainian president said in a speech on August 9, just hours after the Saki accident. “The war in Ukraine began with Crimea and must end with its liberation,” he insisted again, later expanding: “Crimea is Ukrainian and we will never abandon it.”
Certainly, it is impossible to know in which direction the fate of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict will swing. But it is on the Crimean side that the game should be played.
Source: BFM TV
