Winning in the first round of the election was even harder, but former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who took 51% of the valid votes in the most recent Datafolha poll, can still dream of a first-round victory.
Depending on the campaign dynamics, Lula could get enough votes for a narrow victorybecause there are fewer candidates and President Jair Bolsonaro cannot grow in today’s scenario to cause him to win the presidential election.
Despite all of Bolsonaro’s benefits during the election cycle, it’s making little headway in polls in the first and second round simulations. Datafolha and Ipec showed that Bolsonaro did not have enough votes to be reelected.
In the Ipec poll released Monday, Lula would have 51% versus 35% for Bolsonaro in the second round. According to Datafolha, the PT would beat the current president by 54% to 37%.
During the free-election era, the PT campaign plans to attack Bolsonaro to try to keep the president’s rejection at a level that would preclude a reaction that could lead him to victory. In the PT, the most likely scenario is predicted to be a runoff, but a first-stage victory is not excluded if the helpful voting strategy yields a few more votes.
Campaign dynamics: in Datafolha, Lula maintained consistency in polls simulating the first round. The former president took a 48% share at the end of May and repeated the 47% mark in the last three Datafolha polls (conducted in late June and July and mid-August).
If Lula stays at this level, victory in the first round will depend on the performance of the PT campaign in radio and TV advertisingIn the tough fight against Bolsonarism on social media (the narrative about Emergency Aid and the conflict in the Evangelical faction) and the strength of the movement for a useful vote in the recent period (for example, supporters of Ciro Gomes should be decisive for the election, the presidential election ends on October 2 or 23).
source: Noticias
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