February 24, 2022 – August 24, 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine reaches its six-month mark on Wednesday. And while the Kremlin’s initial offensive 24 weeks ago shocked Kyiv and stunned the world, neither side is making any further progress. As if the conflict had been frozen along a bogged-down front in the east of the country, in the manner of a war of positions in which the artillery occupied a privileged place.
With the latest data on the conflict and with the help of General Jérôme Pellistrandi, BFMTV.com takes stock of this situation that seems to be blocked from a military point of view, while the dreaded Slavic winter is already approaching and the Ukrainians fear an imminent coup. of the strength of their enemies.
82,000 km2 so… (almost) nothing
It is true that since February 24, the Russians have gained 82,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian soil. Except that, for the most part, these territorial gains were made during the first weeks of the conflict. Since the beginning of the summer, Russia has only accumulated a few hundred additional square kilometers.
Reduced to the wing of the crow, the Russian advance was thus only “15 miles in about five months,” according to the on-set estimate of Patrick Sauce, our editorialist for international affairs.
And if we plot it on a map, the Russian invasion will have for the time being allowed Moscow to seize only two thin eastern stripes, skirting its satellites of Crimea and the breakaway republics, however taking the cities of ‘Izium, Kherson and Mariupol. We are far from the initial objectives of a blitzkrieg and a Russian army parading through the streets of Kyiv.
A bite but no gel.
What prevails is rather the impression of stagnation, even of a frozen front. “I wouldn’t say ‘frozen'”, General Jérôme Pellistrandi, our adviser on military issues, immediately corrects: “We could speak of a nibble that reflects the Russian difficulty in obtaining a definitive result on the Ukrainians”. “It’s a battle of attrition, terrible for both attackers and defenders,” he continues.
Especially since if the armored vehicles and the infantry no longer advance or advance so little, the cannons continue to thunder. “The front line has remained substantially the same since the beginning of the summer, but the shelling continues,” added Patrick Sauce in our studies.
the lessons of history
In addition, the US Department of Defense has just estimated the number of projectiles fired by the Russians at 60,000 every day. Volodymyr Zelensky for his part counted 3,500 Russian cruise missiles projected against his in half a year.
An infernal rain that inspires a historical parallel with Jérôme Pellistrandi: “Unlike today, we have drones, GPS and therefore information, the current situation is analogous to the one we experienced in France in the spring of 1915. The offensives having failed, the front was buried, hence the massive recourse to artillery”.
The officer enriches the analogy with a final detail: “The burial of the front in 1915 had led the French to change from the 75 mm gun – which fired on sight or almost – to a larger, long-range, 155 mm caliber gun. This is still the caliber of CAESAR weapons that we send to the Ukrainians and the weapons that the Americans are supplying to them.”
Western aid ran out
The same causes leading to the same effects, will the trampling of the Russo-Ukrainian war mechanically lead kyiv’s war effort to rely more and more on ballistic support from the West? In a message sent on Wednesday to the Crimean Platform convened by Volodymyr Zelensky, Emmanuel Macron also expressed his desire to record the support of France and its partners for Ukraine “over time”.
“The problem is that European stocks have melted. And it takes 18 months to make a CAESAR cannon! As for large-caliber ammunition, it also takes time to make it, not to mention that factories in Ukraine can be targeted.” of the Russians.” , General Pellistrandi showers.
Babushka’s hot soup
Time, therefore. In fact, this is a crucial weapon for each of the two belligerents and one that both will lack. Because the bad days of the Russian – or here Slavic – autumn and winter are approaching, a season hitherto fatal for all the invaders of the region – with its procession of precipitation, of mud. And the cold.
Modern warfare, despite all its technology, does not escape these climatic contingencies, on the contrary. “Digital tools and heat engines suffer from the cold”, exemplifies Jérôme Pellistrandi, who comments that the situation, however, could benefit Ukrainians for a completely different and more prosaic reason: “Ukrainians will always be able to handle hot soup , served by the babushka (“grandmother”, editor’s note) from the area, not from the Russians.”
Against the clock
Hence a race against time started by the Kremlin and the fear on the Ukrainian side that the Russians will try to force their way in before the end of the summer. Volodymyr Zelensky also expressed this fear on Saturday by raising the possibility of seeing Russia launch a “particularly disgusting” action from this Wednesday.
Because it has a double symbolic weight. In addition to commemorating the six months of the conflict, it celebrates Ukraine’s independence. “The US State Department fears that Russia will take advantage of August 24 to restart the machine. This would be an opportunity to show that these 31 years of independence have truly ended,” our journalist Patrick Sauce explained on Tuesday in our antenna. .
The conflict is stagnant but remains just as deadly
Anyway, it’s not party time. Because the military situation after six months of war also demands the elaboration of the human balance. On Monday, General Valery Zalouzhny, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, measured the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed at 9,000.
If the Russians – who according to the specialized site Oryx have already left 5,321 vehicles in combat, including 970 tanks – are silent on the extent of their losses, the Americans, quoted by franceinfo on Tuesday, mentioned 80,000 Russian soldiers out of action. “That is, about 20,000 deaths according to a ratio of three wounded to one dead soldier”, quantifies General Jérôme Pellistrandi.
The war may not be advancing anymore, but it is not done devouring the combatants.
Source: BFM TV
