This is August 24, completing 6 months of the Ukrainian War. This day is particularly symbolic, not only because it gives rise to a range of reflections and assessments of the conflicts so far, but also because it coincides with the celebration of Ukraine’s independence from Soviet forces. The incident also comes at a time of real escalation risks, escalating tensions in the region, particularly after the attack that killed the daughter of Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin last week, and in the face of intensifying conflicts and warnings of risk in Crimea. The harbinger of a nuclear disaster in Europe’s largest power plant, Zaporizhzhia.
Despite this, there is little news about the war from a significant perspective. A number of tactical advances and field moves have obviously taken place, and have been well documented by those who have been on the front lines of the war for the past few months. Despite this, the core issues that are seen as deep and strategic and with long-term implications still seem the same. Here, from a systemic perspective, we summarize the key dilemmas this conflict has brought to light in six questions that remain unanswered:
1. Is it possible to bet on the longevity of the Western alliance? The recent history of the relationship between the United States and Europe is marked by the inconsistency that makes the transatlantic partnership a source of relative instability. Also, the G7, as we know, faces significant fragmentation in countries, in a context where priorities change according to who is in power, especially in times of populism, nationalism and protectionism.
2. What are the future implications of a “proxy war” in Ukraine? The hostility of US and Russian interests on Ukrainian soil may face tactical, logistical and control challenges, as we discussed earlier in a column. It can result in an escalation due to miscalculation or miscommunication and has certainly hampered the progress of diplomatic work as reconciliation efforts are hampered by a persistent lack of trust between the parties regarding interests and participation. actors in this particular conflict.
3. What are the long-term effects of sanctions against Russia? In addition to the more obvious consequences associated with increased resource scarcity, inflationary pressure, and scarcity of global production chains, Russian isolation is also likely to fuel political resentments, the effects of which are still unknown.
4. How to deal with the resistance of the Global South to condemn Russia? It is unclear to what extent the conflict in Eastern Europe will encourage coordinated actions among developing countries to challenge and make specific adjustments to the existing international order. It is also unclear how forces with reformist, revisionist or even revolutionary intentions will mobilize their support. players.
5. What are the limits of the Sino-Russian alliance? It is necessary to watch closely whether the partnership between China and Russia has the means to consolidate a marriage with long-term commitments, or whether we are currently just dealing with a pragmatic approach.
6. What are the risks for the United States of pursuing a foreign policy based on “democracy versus autocracy”? The relative decline of Americans’ material capabilities has faced troubling contradictions as a result of dividing the world between those who share the same values and those who do not. In the 21st century, insisting on a “missionary crusade” type of international intervention seems likely to cost the United States more than it benefits.
In the same column, we are reminded of Mary Kaldor’s concept of “endless wars” when proposing an analysis of the first 50 days of conflict. At that time, we classified the crisis in Eastern Europe as, in author’s terms, a conflict that tended to be long, persistent, and “endless”. A few months later, this assessment still seems logical.
source: Noticias
