A month before the elections in Italy, the most intransigent right-wing bloc seems to be securing victory

A month before the political elections in Italy, on 25 September, the various polls on voting intentions will be held give the right-wing coalition a 48.2% lead versus 29.5% of the Democratic Party (PD) and other left-wing formations.

While the only thing that will remain in suspense until the end will be the duel between Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy and Enrico Letta’s PD to be the most voted party since then both are about 24% of the votes.

In third place, with 14.5% it would be the League, led by Matteo Salvini, Followed by Movimento 5 Stelle with 11% and further away Forza Italia with 7%, Accion-Italia Viva with 5.8% and Sinistra-Verdi with 3.7% and Italexit with 3.1%.

Despite the differences, the right-wing parties Fratelli d’Italia, Lega and Forza Italia led by Silvio Berlusconi, which rewards the current electoral system, will run in coalition, while the differences between the various left parties and the centrists they divided the intentions of the progressive vote.

majorities

The results that the polls predict suggest an avalanche of right-wing in single-member constituencies, and, therefore, the quasi-mathematical certainty of an absolute majority of seats in both the House and the Senate.

The results are similar across all polls, released this Thursday by the Demopolis Institute gives the right to 47% and PD together with + Europe and Verdi to 30.5% while Giuseppe Conte’s Movimento 5 Stelle would have 11% and the so-called “Terzo Polo” of Action and Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva would remain at 5.8%.

“With a turnout of 67%, 6 points less than in 2018, and with more than a fifth of Italians still undecided The decisive phase of the electoral campaign beginsexplains the director of Demopolis Pietro Vento.

Yet it does not seem that anything can change advantage of over 16 percentage points from right to center by Enrico Letta.

The Italian electoral system is a mixture of majority and proportional but where the proportional part reigns: 64% of multi-member lists against 36% of single-member associations.

Benefit

For this the center-right would obtain a large parliamentary majority: 249 seats in the Chamber and 125 in the Senatevery close, even if it would not exceed it, to the qualified majority of 2/3 of the seats, which serve, for example, to modify the Constitution without having to go through a confirmation referendum.

The center-left would be the first opposition force with 100 seats in the Chamber, while the M5S would keep 26 seats. The rest of Italy is all blue, almost all dark blue, that is, colleges with a great center-right advantage: a dominance that, as we shall see, can lead the conservative coalition to a large parliamentary majority.

The decision of the Acción leader, Carlo Calenda, to break with the PD and ally with Matteo Renzi’s Italia Viva would not have rewarded as 14 deputies and 5 senators would remain.

Source: EFE

PB