War with Ukraine: life continues normally in Moscow after six months of “special operation”

At the Ismailovsky souvenir market in Moscow you can buy mugs and t-shirts that allude to the deployment of Russian forces in Ukraine… since 2014, when the Crimean peninsula was annexed. There is nothing that alludes to the “special military operation” that began six months ago.

There are few visible signs in the capital that Russia is grappling with the worst European conflict since World War II. The letter “Z”, Originally a symbol of the operation as it appears on Russian military vehicles, it is now evident in its absence.

There are hardly any loose posters at bus stops with a soldier’s face or expression “Glory to the heroes of Russia”. The posters give no idea what the soldiers are doing, or where.

The reluctance of the people, or the state of denialspeaking of the “operation” underway in Ukraine, it is striking in a country where military enterprises are part of the social fabric. The annexation of Crimea generated instant memes and images of President Vladimir Putin, in which he was presented as “the kindest person,” an allusion to a widespread description of Russian soldiers as kind.

Victory Day over Nazi Germany is a special holiday for the Russians.

The premises where a Lamborghini dealership worked on Kutuzovsky Prospekt, one of the main thoroughfares in Moscow, he still has a banner unfolded for Victory Day even if the room is dark. Lamborghini has left Russia, along with hundreds of foreign companies that have left or suspended operations after the raid in Ukraine.

Empty companies, in the dark, in shopping malls, where fast food restaurants like McDonald’s and Starbucks worked, are the most visible signs of the conflict. The departure of these companies was a severe psychological blow to the Muscovites, who had become accustomed to the benefits of a consumer culture.

“At first we were very disappointed,” admitted Yegor Driganov. “But other activities were born instead.”.

The premises where McDonald’s and Starbucks worked were acquired by Russian businessmen who quickly opened almost exact copies.

“Everything remains the same ”, said Driganov’s partner, Polina Polishchuk, commenting on the mood of the people.

Officials say Russia can replace businesses they left, but many Russians are privately voicing doubts.

A study by the Levada Center, Russia’s only independent pollster, indicated that 81% of Russians believe the country will be able to replace business of foreign food with domestic alternatives, while only 41% estimate that local factories will be able to replace foreign electronics and only a third believe that domestic production of cars can compensate for the suspension of imports.

Sanctions prevent the arrival of auto parts. Government statistics say so vehicle production in May decreased by 97% compared to the same month in 2021. Putin recently admitted that even shipyards are experiencing a lack of parts.

The panic felt in Russia at the announcement of Western sanctions and after the departure of foreign companies has eased slightly. The ruble, which lost half its value against the dollar after the sanctions, not only has he recovered, but he is stronger today than in a long time.

While this is good for national pride, it is a heavy burden on export-dependent sectors whose products are now more expensive.

And Russia’s economic prospects aren’t too clear between cross-statistics. There is little unemployment, contrary to what many had predicted. But GDP fell 4% in the second quarter of the year and is expected to decline by 8% for the year. Inflation is also estimated at 15%.

“It is obvious that things will never be the same again,” Russian central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina told an International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg. “External conditions have changed for a long time, if not forever.”.

As much as they see economic upheaval, people show no anxiety.

Mikhail Sukhorukov, a souvenir seller in Izmailovsky, plays down the doomsday predictions, even though he can no longer count on foreign tourists, who were the cornerstone of his business. “They are cycles, like waves,” he said. He said he’d rather be optimistic than “go to the graveyard”.

“You lead a normal life in Moscow because people try to maintain a sense of normalcy and relative psychological calm,” Nikolai Petrov of the Russia and Eurasia Program told Chatham House. people prefer not to think about it and live their own life. ”

Petrov also noted that Muscovites are “under the effects of (boreal) summer, that make people not look at what is happening in the world and create your own reality, centered around your family, vacations and everything in between. ”

Private visiting sites abroad, Russians explore exotic domestic destinationssuch as Sakhalin Island, 6,300 kilometers (3,900 miles) from Moscow, where tourism has increased by 25%, it was reported. There is also a lot of interest in Kaliningrad’s beaches on the Baltic Sea.

Despite the fact that very little is said about what is happening in Ukraine on the street, news abounds on radio and television. The main news program of state television, Vesti Nedeli, recently devoted nearly an hour to the military operation, with reports in which Russian forces are presented as very effectivewith the most modern weapons.

About 60% of Russians depend on state television for information. Many, however, consider it unreliable. A Levada study this month indicated that the 65% of Russians do not believe in anything or in part what they see in the state media about Ukraine.

“There are many alternative sources” on state television, Driganov said, resting by the river.

To access many of these sources, however, you need to have VPNs or virtual private networks. The government has banned or blocked many foreign newspapers, harasses citizens, often forcing them to shut down, and has banned the use of Facebook and Twitter.

AP Agency

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