After two consecutive months of low inflation, the projection for June would be higher than that for May. Food, fuel, tariffs and the jump in the exchange gap would lead to this month’s index more than 5.1% last month and would close the losing streak.

Inflation peaked at 6.7% in March of this year. From there it dropped to 6% in April and 5.1% in May. But forecasts indicate that this downward trend is cut this month.

“We expect monthly inflation to rebound above the previous month’s record“, indicate from LCG. In turn, the CPI GBA Ecolatina recorded an increase of 5.6% in the first half of June compared to the same period in May.

In the LCG measurement, the increase in food prices in the second week of June averaged 0.57%. The Food and Beverage Index has reported monthly inflation of 5.1% for the past four weeks.

Consultancy firm FMyA is aiming for 5% for June. Among the items that will weigh in the index are the new increases in Prepaid (10%), Electricity (17%) and Gas (20% on average) in the AMBA. In the case of tariffs, a question arises as will be recorded in the index the additional increase of 10%. of the richest families They will no longer receive subsidies. This increase is retroactive to June 1.

Without calculating this additional increase, consultants’ estimates indicate that the increase in electricity and gas will have an impact of between 0.5% and 1% on inflation in June.

Add to this the impact of rise from 12% of diesel, which will only hit in the second fortnight since it went into effect on June 17, so the impact will be marginal in the June measurement.

the slowdown stops

According to the records of the Metropolitan University for Education and Work (UMET) Institute of Workers Statistics (IET) and the Center for Concertation and Development (CCD), In the first half of June, food inflation reached 5.2% and “stopped the slowdown in May”.

For the general coordinator of the EIT, Mariano De Miguel, “the increase in food prices recorded so far in June warns that it will be difficult to exceed the minimum level of monthly inflation of 5%. The high inflation regime is set to last for a long time“.

The upward trend in prices this month could be favored by the jump in the exchange gap, which today is 75% with the blue dollar and 95% with liquidity, the dollar used by companies.

Although imports are regulated by the official dollar, the jump in the exchange rate gap affects expectations and may affect observations. The last time the gap was 95% was in February of this year, before the surge in the consumer price index in March which ushered in the monthly 6% threshold.

For the next few months, FMyA’s estimate predicts inflation of 4.5% in July, an average of 4.1% in the second half and 73% in 2022. “There are risks”warns economist Fernando Marull. “Inflation will remain high because nominality is high: wages arrive at 4/5% per month, the official dollar at 4.5% and we assume that another increase in electricity and gas is missing in September (for 10 richer%) “.

“If there are symptoms of recession and the official dollar is controlled, inflation does not go crazy. If there was a devaluation of the official dollar, inflation quickly rises to 3 digits. We continue to assume that the government is aiming for more bonds, not more devaluation “, Marul’s slogan.

For GMA Capital “it is very difficult for inflation for the year to close below 70%. If the cost of living moves to 4% per month (1.3 percentage points less than in the first 5 months), the year change over year in December it would be 70.2%. But if the price dynamics were on average 5% per month, inflation for the year would close at 81.9% “.

In this way, private forecasts continue to be above government projections. In the 2022 Budget which was finally presented on Thursday and which brought the annual inflation projection to 62%. It implies an increase of 14 percentage points compared to the projection managed in March, when the agreement with the Monetary Fund was closed.

“Everything seems to indicate that controlling inflation, which is our most pressing economic challenge, will not have an immediate solution, not much less. A slow slowdown seems to be the best possible scenario today. The lack of a coordinated method to reconcile the measures of the national government is, without doubt, the main obstacle to the search for solutions ”, warns the director general of the CCD and former Minister of Education of the Nation, Nicolás Trotta.

AQ