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The government will have to pay $ 1,250 million to the IMF on Thursday before the second outlay

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The government must pay $ 1,250 million to the IMF this Thursday before the body’s second disbursement income. The IMF board will only meet the next day to discuss goals for the second quarter and define if it releases 3.8 billion dollars. The expectation in the government is that the directors of the organization will move in the same direction as the staff, who confirmed their approval 10 days ago, despite Argentina not achieving all the planned goals.

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Sergio Massa announced in the presentation of the 2023 Report that the Board of Directors would discuss the revision this Friday, confirmed in the past few hours by sources close to the negotiation. “We are in a wait-and-see situation pending approval by the IMF board on 7 October of the second revision of the second quarter but also of the prospects for 2023 ”, the Minister of Economy said last week.

If the disbursement is authorized, Argentina will receive it the same day or the next, two weeks after the scheduled. Due to the delay in negotiations, the government has already had to pay 2,600 million dollars more than a week to the Special Drawing Rights Capital Maturity Fund (SDR) it had received from the agency in March, instead of using the funds Washington would finally release this week.

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IMF staff reported that they reached a technical agreement with the authorities upon reaching most of the June targets, except for the minimum threshold of US $ 3,450 million for net reserves. For this reason, Massa’s team does not rule out that the agency will actually grant the first exemption six months after the start of the program, without the authorities making a formal request.

Meanwhile, the economy minister plans to return to Washington participate in the annual assembly of the IMF and the World Bank, scheduled for 10 to 16 October. It is also waiting for the IDB to approve $ 1.2 billion in credits, and the trip to resume negotiations with the Paris Club for a $ 2 billion debt is pending. Massa would have traveled at the end of September, but he postponed it without setting a new date.

The Minister of Economy assured this on Friday achieved the achievement of the third quarter objectives thanks to the record liquidation in September, which resulted in closing transactions of US $ US $ 8,123 million and the accumulation of US $ 5,000 million in net reserves. Now, the arrival of the second disbursement, once approved, will serve the government to cover payments of US $ 1,700 million in the remainder of October and November with the Fund.

But analysts believe the currency front remains the economy’s Achilles heel. “With the end of the temporary relief that meant the ‘soy dollar’ – and considering these dollars do not result in “more” income than expected for the entire year- From October, the dynamics of the foreign exchange market could once again curb the current relative calm in the exchange rate and the reserve target for the fourth quarter of the year, “Ecolatina said.

The consultant warned that “even assuming a significant drop in energy payments and a containment of imports, the private foreign exchange market would not show a surplus for the BCRA to accumulate reserves on a sustained basis until the new harvest.”

And he warned that “the pressures coming from the excess demand for currency (mainly the product of the lower seasonal supply) would re-emerge, in a context in which the exchange gap – which has returned to growing in recent weeks – continues at levels incompatible with a stability scenario ”.

Source: Clarin

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