With a result that was not in the calculation of any of the pollsters and practically the majority of analysts, the former Social Democratic President Lula da Silva prevailed this Sunday in the first round of the historic elections in Brazil, but for a much smaller difference than expected in front of President Jair Bolsonaro, surprise of the night.
The PT leader won by nearly four points, well below the wide difference that polls had placed him as an all-time favorite, and insufficient to avoid the run-off scheduled for October 30, which will define the presidential future of the second economy. in the hemisphere.
The president, who had raised a series of doubts about the elections during the election campaign, did not immediately recognize the results.
Bolsonaro had stated that he had everything to get his re-election for a clear difference and that otherwise there would have been fraud.
On election day, he suggestively insisted that he would only recognize the elections if they were clean, without giving any other details and leaving open the possibility of denouncing them.
the ballot
The controversial Brazilian president led the check with a difference of sometimes more than six points well over 50 percent of the count, when Lula managed to turn the tables. It was due to receiving votes, especially from the north-east, which is a territorial space loyal to the former ruler.
An important detail that left the day is the advance of the center-right senator Simone Tebet who finished in third place, beating the center-right Ciro Gomes, who has always been the third in these comparisons.
This movement confirms, according to analysts, a positioning towards the center and the center right of the Brazilian company which will entail a strong challenge for the PT leader in his run for the presidency.
Lula da Silva has campaigned to do just that, often appearing with Brazil’s top businessmen and claiming fiscal responsibility and respect for the free market as one of the mottos of her eventual government.
In this effort he also promised, as in previous administrations, to be able to bring relief to the sectors most affected by poverty in this huge country which has just over 30 million poor people, with specific food problems.
unknown
It is not clear what will happen in the second round of the elections. A noteworthy fact is that Lula did not get the helpful vote that he had demanded, that is to say that the people will vote for him so as not to lose their vote in alternatives that have not had a chance.
We have four very complex weeks ahead of us. Lula had said in a press conference in Sao Paulo, a few hours before the elections, that he envisaged the possibility of a second round and that, if that happened, other types of elections would be held.
In this sense, he suggested that he would try to attract the votes of both Tebet and Ciro Gomes, who held a ministry during one of his governments. This seduction is measured in the offer of power, through the ministry, among other procedures.
Bolsonaro never doubted his eventual victory and thereby stimulated his followers. It was his connection with an electorate who had called him a “myth” and who professed a personalist loyalty to the extent that some of his followers had promised to react violently if the polls escaped him.
In Brasilia there are rumors of an offensive by truckers, in full line with the government, with pickets on avenues, highways and roads, against the Superior Electoral Court, if the sentence was not in their favor.
According to Bolsonaro, he had everything to collect 60 percent of the vote. In any case, he made a successful election, with a huge collection of votes. Y it retains its ability to keep the government.
Effort
But the tension is there. A tour by this envoy through the dormitory towns surrounding Brasilia showed that Bolsonarian voters had prepared to celebrate in the streets a victory they considered indubitable.
A taxi driver commented that people were not ready to accept any results.
The new turning point of these elections is fueled by the now conclusive data that the president has much stronger support than expected. This despite his conflicting and misogynistic tones that put him in front of the huge electorate of women and youth.
A notion that should be revised is that the latest debate among the candidates, last Thursday, with a moment of enormous verbal violence, contempt and insults between the two main candidates, has perhaps shifted the vote of the undecided.
Bolsonaro went to that meeting with the decision to show himself in the fight against Lula and managed to build a strong image, facing a former president who clung to the success story of his two governments avoiding scoring proposals and receiving a flurry of attacks on corruption that marked the last phase of the PT.
Although Lula comes out victorious, he has a daunting task ahead. Their candidates have failed in central districts such as São Paulo, where there will also be a ballot but with the PT candidate with a significant difference in votes against, and in Rio de Janeiro, where the politician who supports President Bolsonaro won.
The former president leads a coalition of 10 parties from a lukewarm left to center right, but will have to broaden his spectrum to ensure victory. In other words, you should perform your speech a lot with the associated risks.
In perspective it is also the extent of the eventual victory in the second round, necessary to face the economic problems, especially fiscal ones, of this gigantic country.
An important fact to keep in mind is that 51% of the Brazilian electorate earn up to two minimum wages a month (about 2,400 reais or $ 450), which is insufficient to cover the basic needs of a typical family.
From 57% of that huge slice of excluded, most of the votes go to Lula. Below that level, there are approximately 30 million people with specific dietary problems. No matter who ultimately wins, those sectors won’t wait to knock on government doors.
Brasilia, special correspondent
Source: Clarin
